Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3541-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3541-2026
Research article
 | 
29 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 29 Jul 2026

A ground motion prediction model for the Italian region based on a mixture of experts framework

Jinfeng Dai, Zifa Wang, Dengke Zhao, Xiangying Wang, Jianming Wang, Zhaoyan Li, Zhaodong Wang, and Jintao Xiao

Cited articles

Abrahamson, N. and Silva, W.: Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA ground-motion relations, Earthq. Spectra, 24, 67–97, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2924360, 2008. 
Agrawal, H. and McCloskey, J.: Estimating ground motion intensities using simulation-based estimates of local crustal seismic response, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024. 
ALOS: Global Digital Surface Model “ALOS World 3D - 30m (AW3D30)”, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), https://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/ALOS/en/dataset/aw3d30/aw3d30_e.htm, last access: 24 May 2021. 
Bindi, D.: The predictive power of ground-motion prediction equations, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 735–742, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160251, 2017. 
Bindi, D., Luzi, L., Pacor, F., Franceschina, G., and Castro, R. R.: Ground-motion prediction from empirical attenuation relationships versus recorded data: the case of the 1997–1998 Umbria-Marches, Central Italy, strong motion data set, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 984–1002, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050102, 2006. 
Download
Short summary
Predicting earthquake ground shaking is vital for safety. We developed a new method for Italy using a Mixture of Experts model, which divides complex tasks among specialized sub-models. This approach significantly outperforms traditional methods in accuracy and reliability. By providing precise data for safer building designs, our model enhances seismic risk assessment and offers a powerful new tool for protecting urban infrastructure in earthquake-prone regions.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint