Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3489-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3489-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
 | 
23 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 23 Jul 2026

Hourly-scale modeling of storm transitions in Southern Brazil with Markov Chains

Camilo Ocampo-Marulanda, Jefferson Vieira Santos, Julian David Mera-Franco, Alvaro Avila-Diaz, Tiago Alessandro Espinola Ferreira, David Henriques da Matta, and Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva

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Latest update: 25 Aug 2026
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Short summary
After the devastating floods that struck southern Brazil in May 2024, this study set out to better understand how storms behave hour by hour – a topic still missing from the scientific literature. The results show that storms in the mountains are shorter but more intense, while those in lowland areas last longer. These insights can help improve flood warnings and guide smarter risk management.
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