Coupled simulation of landslide, tsunami, and ground deformation for the 2017 Nuugaatsiaq event in Greenland
by Aochi et al.
This study considers the complete chain of events resulting from the rockslide in Karrat Fjord, Greenland. A number of substantial improvements have been made to the original landscape but there are still a number of clarifications that I think are needed before it can be considered for publication. My greatest worries regard the correct interpretation of the seismic data and I think a lot more clarity about how the raw waveforms are processed to arrive at the conclusions reached. I have been unable to match the waveforms displayed in Figure 6. I may have made errors in processing the data but this is all the more reason to show explicitly what has been done, for the sake of reproducibility.
(All line numbers relate to the document with track-changes "egusphere-2025-3803-ATC1.pdf")
Abstract:
The new sentence “The volume was estimated …”. I feel this sentence loses a bit of meaning without saying what the estimate and uncertainty are. These numbers are more important than the number of seismic stations involved. Later in the abstract we read about “uncertainties in the landslide volume”- maybe it is easier just to remove the new sentence and be more precise about the measurement and the uncertainties later?
I see later (e.g. line 193-194) the value 44 * 10^6 m^3 which is qualitatively in-line with other estimates (lines 207-209). What are the error bounds associated with the 44 from this calculation?
Can we adjust the terms “sea level change” and “ground deformation”?
“sea-level-change” almost always refers to a slow change in the long-term baseline level, not a wave-associated change in water height. I suggest “A 1m water surface elevation …” – it is semantics but it creates a completely different impression.
Similarly, ground deformation tends to imply a permanent remoulding of the rock which is also not the case here – this is also an elastic response to the forcing. Can we use “ground displacement”? The seismograms eventually return to their normal displacement as a result of the water wave.
(It says still in lines 170-171 “The seismic waves usually propagate at a speed of a few kilometres per second, and the static displacement remains after the passage of the seismic waves” – I really cannot reproduce this! I have read in a very long segment of data from station DK.NUUG and converted to displacement and I do not see any permanent deformation. Can you please demonstrate – e.g. in the supplement - the code you use to demonstrate a permanent deformation. I may have made a mistake or an assumption here, e.g. in the way I have removed the instrument response, but I cannot find an offset in the data.)
In the start of the introduction we say “have been melting at unprecedented rates for 4 millennia” – do you mean “melting now at rates that are unprecedented given the estimated melting rates over the last 4 millennia”? As the sentence stands now it sounds that the melt has been going on at this rate for thousands of years …
Line 66-69: Are we talking about the Greenland seismic network here? Is it actively being used for early warning purposes? If so I think this needs a reference. The use of seismic data for early warning has very special usage in seismological literature and I am not aware of the Greenland network being specially applied for early warning. It is true that the seismic waves travel faster than the tsunami waves but this is of little consequence if there are not systems in place to monitor this in near-real-time.
In the caption to Figure 1, panel b) says > 0.001 Hz but in the caption, it says highpass filtered at 0.0005 Hz. Why is the seismic coda in panel (c) labelled “Initial tsunami”? On what basis are these waves identified as coming from the tsunami rather than seismic coda waves? (I am not saying that it is not the tsunami, and it may be contributing, but to me this looks completely normal for coda from a non-tsunamigenic source. In lines 104-105, it too mentions “smaller amplitude waves related to the beginning of the tsunami” – what is it that makes it clear that this is the source?
I had a feeling that the numerical resolution of the slide would be about ~10 pixels and this is confirmed here. Is this enough? In line 149-150, it states that the finer resolution would likely not have a great impact on the tsunami simulations – this is correct – a simple “box” shaped source is often used for modelling a landslide’s tsunamigenesis. However, is the ~10 pixels enough to model the dynamics of the slide itself? It may be fine, but a word that gives confidence that a model with ~20 pixels or ~200 pixels would give a qualitatively similar result would be appreciated. (This may be completely normal for VolcFlow simulations and it may be well documented that this is sufficient, but it would be nice to say so here for us that are not familiar with VolcFlow.)
In lines 151-155, I understand that at 120 seconds, one model takes over from another. What does the FUNWAVE-TVD code need to initiate the simulation? Is an initial condition that is a direct output from VolcFlow enough?
I am happy to see the improvement to Figure 3 resulting from the rotation of the horizontal components of DK.NUUG. Please mention this in the caption (as Paris et al. do) – it helps the literature to serve as a guide to future study.
My question about the filtration of the observed data in Figure 6 I think has been misunderstood. Panel (c) says (Obs > 0.001 Hz) which means highpass filter. But it says in the caption lowpass filter. If it is highpass, then please correct the lowpass to highpass. If it is indeed lowpass, then please write (Obs < 0.001 Hz) in the figure. I have tried to reproduce these figures of the observed seismograms and I cannot which is why I would really appreciate the filtering parameters and the exact starting times of the segments shown. (You have the sign the right way around for highpass in Figure 2!)
I think it would be better to show an extended segment of the filtered seismograms with a “zoom-in window” to the segment shown. In the reply to the reviewers’ comments it says “There is an early seismic arrival … which is why the waveform doesn’t start at zero.” – can you add this to the caption too?
It says in line 233-234 that the observed seismic displacement is much larger: it is over 20 times larger! This is why I am worried that we are looking at something completely unrelated here.
Figure 7 is a great improvement! The new colour scale improves our understanding greatly.
I do not understand the time-scale in Figure 8. The label on the x-axis is “Origin Time” – origin time is just a single point, so I presume this should read “Time after Origin Time”. I am trying to see the connection between Figure 8 and the numbers in Table 1. The time given in Table 1: “First wave Time” – this is at the source right, not at Nuugaatsiaq (at which place the wave arrives after several hundred seconds. But how is the water reached after ~15 seconds and the wave not generated until ~30 seconds? This is the time of the first negative wave amplitude, meaning the first local minimum. OK, I think I understand – but it says “in the sea area” – so this is not necessarily the same location?
The numbers in the final two columns of Table 1 are given to cm-precision which is a level of accuracy not warranted by the model. (It was the fact that the number of significant figures given in the second-to-last column are not consistent that drew my attention to the matter!) To me, Table 1 tells us that all the models produce qualitatively similar waves.
In line 289 of the Table 1 caption we read “brief estimation” (brief = approximate?)
The phrasing of 350-351 is a bit strange. (“playing a crucial role in introducing artificial phases”).
I think I know what you are saying but …
Finally, regarding the motivation of the study, there is much mention of early warning. However, it is not clear how and to what degree this would be implemented in an Urgent Computing mode. Is the entire workflow envisaged in a rapid reaction response? I see that this would be challenging. Or is it just the interpretation of seismic data that would be incorporated into an emergency workflow? How would you distinguish between a tsunamigenic event and a non-tsunamigenic event. It was only the very long period and large amplitude waves at DK.NUUG that alerted the seismological community to the tsunami aspect of this event. But once these are observed and identified, presumably it is too late to use this seismic data for warning purposes – the wave has already washed ashore. I think an Early Warning application is a great goal and a great application, but I do not think it is clearly outlined here how this would work in practice.
(I have included a little python code in the pdf file for how I tried to process the seismic data.) |
In this new study of the 2017 Karrat Fjord events, the authors modelled the landslide, the tsunami generated by this landslide and the ground deformation generated by the tsunami. Using the seismic signal of the landslide, they extracted a volume similar to previous studies. The tsunami propagation gives also similar results, and the wave amplitude depends on the landslide volume. Finally, they used two methods to simulate the ground deformation due to the tsunami. Both methods give similar results, matching in time with the observation but with smaller amplitudes.
The manuscript is globally well written, the figures are interesting, clear and support the text. However, it's a bit confusing, chaotic. Tell me if I'm wrong but the novelty of the study is the modelling of the ground deformation that could give an early estimation of the potential tsunami and could be used in an early warning system. So I think you could restructure the paper to highlight this, which is the main result. Also, in the 'results' section you present a lot of methods.
Here are some specific comments:
Line 17: I'm not sure what you mean by 'understand the causality of this cascade mechanism', because it seems pretty clear what happened.
Line 38: close parenthesis
Line 43: 'melting' -> thawing?
Line 44: 'huge' is not very scientific, huge compared to what?
Line 45: what is your definition of megatsunami? does it really apply here? / Svennevig et al. are not the first to report this event, but I guess you put this reference because they summarized the previous ones?
Line 55: tsunamigenic
Line 61: do you mean in fjords in general?
Line 65: remove the -
Line 68: you also modelled the landslide. More details about VolcFlow would be welcome. / modelling or modeling, the classic en-US/en-GB, be consistent in the whole paper
Lines 75-76: you already said that in the introduction. I would remove this and add the references to Svennevig in the intro.
Line 84: Karrat
Lines 99-100: 'This is the main response of tsunamis', do you mean in general? Or this one specifically ?
Lines 98-101: instead of 'top', 'second' and 'bottom' panel, I would use the letters that you have on the figure.
Figure 1: maybe put the star in colour ? it's not easy to see in black like this
Lines 131-142: I have to admit I'm not qualified to review this paragraph. Just put a point at this end on line 142.
Lines 170-172: could you add some examples of tsunami studies using FUNWAVE? I have Abadie et al. (2020) on La Palma in mind for example
Lines 176-177: I would specify that you are using the Boussinesq model for the dispersion / Why start at 120 seconds? The landslide is faster than that, so the wave is already formed, what motivated the choice of this value?
Line 182: where did you find the value of 49.7 Mm3?
Lines 184-185: what do you mean by ‘our estimation varied by a factor of 2’?
Lines 131-137, 162-185 and 204-216: we are in a results section but for me, these lines describe the methods, not results, so they should be part of a methods section
Line 187: please explain what you mean by ‘coherent tsunami wavefront’
Line 189: like you said in the conclusion, this is due to the reflections in the fjord.
Figure 4: please add axis units. Legend: kilometres is en-GB
Line 209: close the parenthesis
Line 213: ‘typical value for crustal bedrock’, give examples/references
Line 222: ‘These effects… are consistent with the observation’, I’m not sure to understand, what is consistent, the shape of the signal? the small amplitude (even with a factor 10)?
Lines 231-232: it does not seem like a new learning, we used this in Paris et al. (2019) based on the work of Okal, EA (2007). If I missed something, please explain it to me
Line 233: seawater
Figure 7: too many pixels on this figure. Legend: remove respectively and use ‘left panel’ and ‘right panel’
Table 1: a small detail, here you write A.P. and in the text AP; did I miss the explanation for ‘smooth3’ and ‘smooth5’? / ‘It is worth noting… landslide volume’: I would remove this sentence from the legend and put it somewhere in the text
Section 4.2: I don’t know what to think about this paragraph. It looks more like a review than a comparison with what you did. Either include more comparison with your work, or maybe move this paragraph in a restructured introduction
Lines 299-300: I’m not a seismologist so my question is, how do you know that the signal is a landslide that collapsed? The signal of the 2017 event was first treated as a M4.2 earthquake, so no tsunami alert would be triggered for this magnitude. Would you identify areas of risks and lower the magnitude of alert in these areas? I’m curious about your thoughts on that.
Line 311: with the sentence construction we can think the ground deformation affected the village
Line 362: Madariaga