Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Research article
 | 
17 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 17 Jun 2026

Predicting spatio-temporal wildfire propagation with dynamic firebreaks

Jiahe Zheng, Zhengsen Xu, Rossella Arcucci, Sandy P. Harrison, Lincoln Linlin Xu, and Sibo Cheng

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Short summary
We introduce the first AI model that predicts wildfire spread with the placement of both permanent and temporary firebreaks. Our spatiotemporal model learns from simulation data to capture how fire interacts with changing suppression efforts over time. Our model runs fast enough for near real-time use and performs well across different wildfire events. This approach could lead to better tools for helping decision-makers understand where and when firebreaks are most effective.
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