Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2367-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2367-2026
Research article
 | 
26 May 2026
Research article |  | 26 May 2026

Constructing physical-based rainfall landslides prediction model: insights from rainfall threshold curves database of slope units

Kai Wang, Linmao Xie, Shuailong Xie, Shaojie Zhang, Yongyang Jiang, Ji Zhang, Lin Zhu, Zhiliu Wang, and Fuzhou Qi

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Cited articles

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Aristizábal, E., Vélez, J. I., Martínez, H. E., and Jaboyedoff, M.: SHIA_Landslide: a distributed conceptual and physically based model to forecast the temporal and spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins, Landslides, 13, 497–517, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0580-7, 2016. 
ASTM D6528-17: Standard test method for consolidated undrained direct simple shear testing of fine grain soils, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, USA, https://www.astm.org/d6528-17.html (last access: 24 May 2026), 2017. 
Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J.: TRIGRS – a Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis, US Geological Survey Open File Report 2008-1159, 2, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20081159, 2008. 
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This manuscript integrates physical methods, rainfall threshold warning methods, and slope units to develop a rapid forecasting model for rainfall landslides at a regional scale. The application results indicate that the model runs in less than 12 min, with missing alarm and false alarm rates of 11.8 % and 21.1 %, respectively. This study is expected to provide insights for the rapid forecasting of rainfall landslides in the impoverished mountainous regions of developing countries.
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