Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026
Research article
 | 
03 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 03 Mar 2026

Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate

Johanne Kristine Haandbæk Øelund, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Rune Magnus Koktvedgaard Zeitzen, Henrik Vedel, and Henrik Feddersen

Related authors

Modelling wind farm effects in HARMONIE-AROME (cycle 43.2.2) – part 2: Wind turbine database and application to Europe
Jana Fischereit, Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Marc Imberger, Henrik Vedel, Kristian H. Møller, Andrea N. Hahmann, and Xiaoli Guo Larsén
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5407,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5407, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Modelling wind farm effects in HARMONIE–AROME (cycle 43.2.2) – Part 1: Implementation and evaluation
Jana Fischereit, Henrik Vedel, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Natalie E. Theeuwes, Gregor Giebel, and Eigil Kaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2855–2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Bengtsson, L., I., H. K., and Keenlyside, N.: Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2678.1, 2009. a
Bengtsson, L., Andrae, U., Aspelien, T., Batrak, Y., Calvo, J., De Roy, W., Gleeson, E., Hansen-Sass, B., Homleid, M., Hortal, M., Ivarsson, K., Lenderink, G., Niemelä, S., Nielsen, C. P., Onvlee, J., Rontu, L., Samuelsson, P., Munoz, D. S., Subias, A., Tijm, S., Toll, V., Yang, X., and Køltzow, M.: The HARMONIE-AROME Model Configuration in the ALADINE-HIRLAM NWP System, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1919–1935, 2017. a, b
Brogli, R., Heim, C., Mensch, J., Sørland, S. L., and Schär, C.: The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach: methodology, software package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, validation, and sensitivity analyses, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, 2023. a
Cappelen, J., Olufsen, S., Ribergaard, M. H., Nielsen, J. W., Schmith, T., and Hansen, N.: Decemberorkanen 1999, https://www.dmi.dk/vejr-og-atmosfare/temaforside-decemberorkanen-1999 (last access: 22 February 2026), 2018. a, b, c
Catto, J. L.: Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies, Rev. Geophys., 54, 486–520, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000519, 2016. a, b
Download
Short summary
This study explores how a powerful storm like Anatol, which hit Denmark in 1999, could change in a warmer future climate. Using a weather model, the storm was simulated under future temperature conditions. Results show stronger winds affecting larger areas for longer periods. A new index was introduced to measure storm severity. The findings highlight the growing risks to infrastructure and the need for better storm preparedness.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint