Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany

Khosh Bin Ghomash, Shahin; Yeste, Patricio; Apel, Heiko; Nguyen, Viet Dung

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

Research article

|

04 Mar 2025

Research article |

| 04 Mar 2025

Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany

Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen

Data sets

Digitales Oberflächenmodell Gitterweite 1m (DOM1) Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie https://gdz.bkg.bund.de/index.php/default/digitale-geodaten/digitale-gelandemodelle/digitales-oberfaechenmodell-dom1.html

Germany 2020 – Land cover based on Sentinel-2 data mundialis https://www.mundialis.de/en/germany-2020-land-cover-based-on-sentinel-2-data/

Data and Scripts for Advancing a High-Resolution Impact-based Early Warning System for Riverine Flooding Husain Najafi et al. https://doi.org/10.48758/ufz.14607

Short summary

Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.