Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
28 Feb 2025
Review article |
| 28 Feb 2025
| 28 Feb 2025
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
CARE (Center for Avalanche Research and Education), UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Department of Psychology, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Rebecca A. Hetland
Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Tarjei Tveito Skille
CARE (Center for Avalanche Research and Education), UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Department of Psychology, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Andrea Mannberg
CARE (Center for Avalanche Research and Education), UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
School of Business and Economics, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Related authors
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Rune V. Engeset, Gerit Pfuhl, Markus Landrø, Andrea Mannberg, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2537–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Norwegian Avalanche Warning Service was launched in 2013 to stop the increase in avalanche fatalities. We studied how efficiently warnings communicate the hazard on Varsom.no: which risk factors are difficult to assess and manage? Which elements in the warning are (not) important? Which elements are easily misunderstood? Which information/features are missing/ignored by users? We developed a communication effectiveness score for testing this using an online survey.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Rune V. Engeset, Gerit Pfuhl, Markus Landrø, Andrea Mannberg, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2537–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Norwegian Avalanche Warning Service was launched in 2013 to stop the increase in avalanche fatalities. We studied how efficiently warnings communicate the hazard on Varsom.no: which risk factors are difficult to assess and manage? Which elements in the warning are (not) important? Which elements are easily misunderstood? Which information/features are missing/ignored by users? We developed a communication effectiveness score for testing this using an online survey.
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac GLOF, Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modelling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good agreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences, while it remained unclear which data source represented reality the best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
Katharina H. Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analyze its preconditions, consequences, and the role of changing climate. Our study contibutes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We develop decision support tools to assist professional ski guides in determining safe terrain each day based on current conditions. To understand the decision-making process we collaborate with professional guides and build three unique models to predict their decisions. The models accurately capture the real world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live-testing. The model achieved ∼70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update to the system that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-Avalanche Terrain, and Class 4 – Extreme Terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with methods for the application of ATES.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Cited articles
Alicke, M. D. and Sedikides, C.: Self-enhancement and self-protection: What they are and what they do, Eur. Rev. Soc. Psychol., 20, 1–48, https://doi.org/10.1080/10463280802613866, 2009.
Anders Ericsson, K.: Deliberate practice and acquisition of expert performance: a general overview, Acad. Emerg. Med., 15, 988–994, 2008.
Baker, J. and McGee, T. K.: Backcountry snowmobilers' avalanche-related information-seeking and preparedness behaviors, Soc. Nat. Resour., 29, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2015.1103387, 2016.
Balasubramanian, S. G. and Louvar, J. F.: Study of major accidents and lessons learned, Process Saf. Prog., 21, 237–244, 2002.
Barnes Jr., J. H.: Cognitive biases and their impact on strategic planning, Strateg. Manage. J., 5, 129–137, 1984.
Bartolucci, A., Aquilino, M. C., Bril, L., Duncan, J., and van Steen, T.: Effectiveness of audience segmentation in instructional risk communication: A systematic literature review, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 95, 103872, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103872, 2023.
Berlin, C., Techel, F., Moor, B. K., Zwahlen, M., Hasler, R. M., and Swiss National Cohort study group: Snow avalanche deaths in Switzerland from 1995 to 2014 – Results of a nation-wide linkage study, PLoS One, 14, e0225735, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225735, 2019.
Bonini, N., Pighin, S., Rettore, E., Savadori, L., Schena, F., Tonini, S., and Tosi, P.: Overconfident people are more exposed to “black swan” events: a case study of avalanche risk, Empir. Econ., 57, 1443–1467, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1489-5, 2019.
Bougheas, S., Nieboer, J., and Sefton, M.: Risk-taking in social settings: Group and peer effects, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 92, 273–283, 2013.
Cartwright, D.: Determinants of scientific progress: The case of research on the risky shift, Am. Psychol., 28, 222, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034445, 1973.
Cedergren, A. and Petersen, K.: Prerequisites for learning from accident investigations – A cross-country comparison of national accident investigation boards, Safety Sci., 49, 1238–1245, 2011.
Ciocoiu, C. N. and Neicu, D.: Education and Professional Training in the Field of Risk Management, Economia Seria Management, 10, 12–26, 2007.
Croft, J.: The Lessons to be Learned from Incidents and Accidents, in: Current trends in radiation protection, EDP Sciences, 149–164, https://doi.org/10.1051/978-2-86883-725-7.c015, 2020.
Croskerry, P., Singhal, G., and Mamede, S. ilvia: Cognitive debiasing 1: origins of bias and theory of debiasing, BMJ Qual. Saf., 22, ii58–ii64, 2013.
Della Porta, D. and Keating, M. (Eds.): Approaches and methodologies in the social sciences: A pluralist perspective, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9780511801938, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511801938, 2008.
Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., and Wagner, G. G.: Individual risk attitudes: Measurement, determinants, and behavioral consequences, J. Eur. Econ. Assoc., 9, 522–550, 2011.
Dohmen, T. Quercia, S., and Willrodt, J.: Willingness to Take Risk: The Role of Risk Conception and Optimism, IZA Discussion Paper No. 11642, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3209739, 2018.
Ebert, P. A. and Morreau, M.: Safety in numbers: how social choice theory can inform avalanche risk management, Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning, 23, 340–356, 2023.
Engeset, R. V., Pfuhl, G., Landrø, M., Mannberg, A., and Hetland, A.: Communicating public avalanche warnings – what works?, Nat. Hazard. Earth Sys., 18, 2537–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, 2018.
Fischhoff, B.: Risk perception and communication, in: Oxford Textbook of Global Public Health, Oxford University Press, 893–906, ISBN 9780203140710, 2015.
Fisher, K. C., Haegeli, P., and Mair, P.: Exploring the avalanche bulletin as an avenue for continuing education by including learning interventions, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 37, 100472, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2021.100472, 2022.
Fruhaüf, A., Hardy, W. A., Pfoestl, D., Hoellen, F.-G., and Kopp, M.: A qualitative approach on motives and aspects of risks in freeriding, Front. Psychol., 8, 1998, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01998, 2017.
Frühauf, A., Anewanter, P., Hagenauer, J., Marterer, N., and Kopp, M.: Freeriding – Only a need for thrill?: Comparing different motives and behavioural aspects between slope skiers and freeride skiers, J. Sci. Med. Sport, 22, S44–S49, 2019.
Frühauf, A., Zenzmaier, J., and Kopp, M.: Does age matter? A qualitative comparison of motives and aspects of risk in adolescent and adult freeriders, J. Sports Sci. Med., 19, 112–120, 2020.
Furman, N., Shooter, W., and Schumann, S.: The roles of heuristics, avalanche forecast, and risk propensity in the decision making of backcountry skiers, Leisure Sci., 32, 453–469, 2010.
Gigerenzer, G. and Gaissmaier, W.: Heuristic decision making, Annu. Rev. Psychol., 62, 451–482, 2011.
Glik, D. C.: Risk Communication for Public Health Emergencies, Annu. Rev. Publ. Health, 28, 33–54, 2007.
Greene, K., Hendrikx, J., and Johnson, J.: The impact of avalanche education on risk perception, confidence, and decision-making among backcountry skiers, Leisure Sci., 47, 113–133, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490400.2022.2062075, 2022.
Grimsdottir, H. and McClung, D.: Avalanche risk during backcountry skiing – An analysis of risk factors, Nat. Hazards, 39, 127–153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-5227-x, 2006.
Haegeli, P., Gunn, M., and Haider, W.: Identifying a High-Risk Cohort in a Complex and Dynamic Risk Environment: Out-of-bounds Skiing – An Example from Avalanche Safety, Prev. Sci., 13, 562–573, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-012-0282-5, 2012.
Haegeli, P., Falk, M., Procter, E., Zweifel, B., Jarry, F., Logan, S., Kronholm, K., Biskupiè, M., and Brugger, H.: The effectiveness of avalanche airbags, Resuscitation, 85, 1197–1203, 2014.
Haegeli, P., Clair, A. S., McNeil, K., Mannberg, A., and Hetland, A.: Reflections on How to Improve the Contribution of Social Science Research to Avalanche Safety Practices, in: Proceedings of the 2023 International Snow Science Workshop, October 2023, Banf, USA, 8–13, https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/ISSW2023_O3.01.pdf (last access: 12 February 2025), 2023.
Hallandvik, L., Andresen, M. S., and Aadland, E.: Decision-making in avalanche terrain–How does assessment of terrain, reading of avalanche forecast and environmental observations differ by skiers' skill level?, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 20, 45–51, 2017.
Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., and Raiffa, H.: The hidden traps in decision making, Harvard Business Rev., 76, 47–58, 1998.
Hart, P.: Irving L. Janis' victims of groupthink, Polit. Psychol., 12, 247–278., https://doi.org/10.2307/3791464, 1991.
Hertwig, R. and Erev, I.: The description–experience gap in risky choice, Trends Cogn. Sci., 13, 517–523, 2009.
Herzog, T.: Research Methods in the Social Sciences, Harper Collins, New York, NY, ISBN 0673991067, 1996.
Hetland, A.: Literature review, OSF [data set], https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/U9YDM, 2024.
Hetland, A., Vittersø, J., Wie, S. O. B., Kjelstrup, E., Mittner, M., and Dahl, T. I.: Skiing and thinking about it: moment-to-moment and retrospective analysis of emotions in an extreme sport, Front. Psychol., 9, 971, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00971, 2018.
Hetland, A., Skille, T. T., Mannberg, A., Kristensen, T., and Hjelm, I.: Buried alive: A qualitative study of avalanche survivors' learning experience after an avalanche accident, in: International Snow Science Workshop, September 2024, Tromsø, Norway, https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/ISSW2024_O11.8.pdf (last access: 12 February 2025), 2024.
Hetschko, C. and Preuss, M.: Income in jeopardy: How losing employment affects the willingness to take risks, J. Econ. Psychol., 79, 102175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.05.005, 2020.ÿ
Hicks, S. and Brown, S.: Perceptions of risk, International Review of Victimology, 19, 249–267, 2013.
Hirschberger, G., Florian, V., Mikulincer, M., Goldenberg, J. L., and Pyszczynski, T.: Gender differences in the willingness to engage in risky behavior: a terror management perspective, Death Stud., 26, 117–141, 2002.
Hogarth, R. M., Lejarraga, T., and Soyer, E.: The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments, Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci., 24, 379–385, 2015.
Hornby, O., Roderique-Davies, G., Heirene, R., Thorkildsen, E., Bradbury, S., Rowlands, I., Goodison, E., Gill, J., and Shearer, D.: What factors explain extreme sport participation? A systematic review, Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 6, 1403499, https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2024.1403499, 2024.
Hovden, J., Størseth, F., and Tinmannsvik, R. K.: Multilevel learning from accidents – Case studies in transport, Safety Sci., 49, 98–105, 2011.
Isen, A. M. and Patrick, R.: The effect of positive feelings on risk taking: When the chips are down, Organ. Behav. Hum. Perf., 31, 194–202, 1983.
Jackman, P. C., Hawkins, R. M., Burke, S. M., Swann, C., and Crust, L.: The psychology of mountaineering: a systematic review, Int. Rev. Sport Exerc. Psychol., 16, 27–65, 2023.
Jekich, B. M., Drake, B. D., Nacht, J. Y., Nichols, A., Ginde, A. A., and Davis, C. B.: Avalanche Fatalities in the United States: A Change in Demographics, Wilderness Environ. Med., 27, 46–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2015.11.004, 2016.
Joffe, H.: Risk: From perception to social representation, Br. J. Soc. Psychol., 42, 55–73, 2003.
Johnson, J, and Hendrikx, J.: Using Citizen Science to Document Terrain Use and Decision-Making of Backcountry Users, Citizen Science: Theory and Practice, 6, 8, https://doi.org/10.5334/cstp.333, 2021.
Johnson, J., Haegeli, P., Hendrikx, J., and Savage, S.: Accident causes and organizational culture among avalanche professionals, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 13, 49–56, 2016.
Johnson, J., Mannberg, A., Hendrikx, J., Hetland, A., and Stephensen, M.: Rethinking the heuristic traps paradigm in avalanche education: Past, present and future, Cogent Social Sciences, 6, 1807111, https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2020.1807111, 2020.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, in: Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making: Part I, World Scientific, 99–127, https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185, 2013.
Keeney, R. L. and von Winterfeldt, D.: Improving Risk Communication, Risk Anal., 6, 417–424, 1986.
Kerr, J. H. and Houge Mackenzie, S.: Multiple motives for participating in adventure sports, Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 13, 649–657, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.04.002, 2012.
Kerr, N. L. and Tindale, R. S.: Group performance and decision making, Annu. Rev. Psychol., 55, 623–655, 2004.
Kleindorfer, P. R.: Reflections on Decision Making Under Uncertainty, University of Pennsylvania, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1310239, 2008.
Knäuper, B., Kornik, R., Atkinson, K., Guberman, C., and Aydin, C.: Motivation influences the underestimation of cumulative risk, Pers. Soc. Psychol. B., 31, 1511–1523, 2005.
Kopp, M., Wolf, M., Ruedl, G., and Burtscher, M.: Differences in Sensation Seeking Between Alpine Skiers, Snowboarders and Ski Tourers, J. Sports Sci. Med., 15, 11–16, 2016.
Kroon, M. B., Hart, P., and Van Kreveld, D.: Managing group decision making processes: Individual versus collective accountability and groupthink, Int. J. Confl. Manage., 2, 91–115, 1991.
Kruglanski, A. W. and Ajzen, I.: Bias and error in human judgment, Eur. J. Soc. Psychol., 13, 1–44, 1983.
Kugler, T., Kausel, E. E., and Kocher, M. G.: Are groups more rational than individuals? A review of interactive decision making in groups, WiRes. Cogn. Sci., 3, 471–482, 2012.
Landrø, M., Hetland, A., Engeset, R. V., and Pfuhl, G.: Avalanche decision-making frameworks: Factors and methods used by experts, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 170, 102897, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2019.102897, 2020a.
Landrø, M., Pfuhl, G., Engeset, R., Jackson, M., and Hetland, A.: Avalanche decision-making frameworks: Classification and description of underlying factors, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 169, 102903, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2019.102903, 2020b.
Leiter, A. M.: The sense of snow–Individuals' perception of fatal avalanche events, J. Environ. Psychol., 31, 361–372, 2011.
Lindberg, A.-K., Hansson, S. O., and Rollenhagen, C.: Learning from accidents – What more do we need to know?, Safety Sci., 48, 714–721, 2010.
Lipkus, I. M. and Hollands, J. G.: The Visual Communication of Risk, JNCI-J. Natl. Cancer I., 1999, 149–163, 1999.
Løland, S. and Hällgren, M.: `Where to ski?': an ethnography of how guides make sense while planning, Leisure Stud., 42, 866–882, 2023.
Løland, S. and Hällgren, M.: Negotiating the gray zone: Ski guiding routine dynamics, Ann.f Tourism Res., 110, 103858, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2024.103858, 2025.
Mækelæ, M. J., Klevjer, K., Westbrook, A., Eby, N. S., Eriksen, R., and Pfuhl, G.: Is it cognitive effort you measure? Comparing three task paradigms to the Need for Cognition scale, PLoS One, 18, e0290177, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290177, 2023.
Malone, T. W. and Bernstein, M. S.: Handbook of collective intelligence, MIT Press, ISBN 9780262545846, 2022.
Mannberg, A., Hendrikx, J., Landrø, M., and Stefan, M. A.: Who's at risk in the backcountry? Effects of individual characteristics on hypothetical terrain choices, J. Environ. Psychol., 59, 46–53, 2018.
Mannberg, A., Hendrikx, J., Johnson, J., and Hetland, A.: Powder fever and its impact on decision-making in avalanche terrain, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 18, 9496, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189496, 2021a.
Mannberg, A., Hendrikx, J., and Johnson, J.: Risky positioning–social aspirations and risk-taking behaviour in avalanche terrain, Leisure Stud., 40, 495–512, 2021b.
Manson, B.: Understanding risk in an emergency management context, J. Business Contin. Emerg. Plan., 12, 27–39, 2018.
Mathews, A. and Bradle, B.: Mood and the self-reference bias in recall, Behav. Res. Ther., 21, 233–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-7967(83)90204-8, 1983.
Maytorena, E., Winch, G. M., Freeman, J., and Kiely, T.: The Influence of Experience and Information Search Styles on Project Risk Identification Performance, IEEE T. Eng. Manage., 54, 315–326, 2007.
McCammon, I.: Evidence of heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents, in: 2002 International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, BC, Canada, https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item/837 (last access: 12 February 2025), 2002.
Michaelsen, B., Stewart-Patterson, I., Rolland, C. G., Hetland, A., and Engeset, R. V.: Behavior in avalanche terrain: an exploratory study of illegal snowmobiling in Norway, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 19, 6040, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106040, 2022.
Montibeller, G. and von Winterfeldt, D.: Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis, Risk Anal., 35, 1230–1251, 2015.
Moura, R., Beer, M., Patelli, E., Lewis, J., and Knoll, F.: Learning from accidents: Interactions between human factors, technology and organisations as a central element to validate risk studies, Safety Sci., 99, 196–214, 2017.
Ng, P., Smith, W. R., Wheeler, A., and McIntosh, S. E.: Advanced Avalanche Safety Equipment of Backcountry Users: Current Trends and Perceptions, Wilderness Environ. Med., 26, 417–421, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2015.03.029, 2015.
Nichols, T. B., Hawley, A. C., Smith, W. R., Wheeler III, A. R., and McIntosh, S. E.: Avalanche Safety Practices Among Backcountry Skiers and Snowboarders in Jackson Hole in 2016, Wilderness Environ. Med., 29, 493–498, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2018.05.004, 2018.
Ove Hansson, S.: Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty, Philos. Soc. Sci., 26, 369–386, 1996.
Page, C. E., Atkins, D., Shockley, L. W., and Yaron, M.: Avalanche deaths in the United States: a 45 year analysis, Wilderness Environ. Med., 10, 146–151, https://doi.org/10.1580/1080-6032(1999)010[0146:Aditus]2.3.Co;2, 1999.
Peitzsch, E., Boilen, S., Logan, S., Birkeland, K., and Greene, E.: Research note: How old are the people who die in avalanches? A look into the ages of avalanche victims in the United States (1950–2018), Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 29, 100255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2019.100255, 2020.
Pfeifer, C.: On probabilities of avalanches triggered by alpine skiers. An empirically driven decision strategy for backcountry skiers based on these probabilities, Nat. Hazards, 48, 425–438, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9270-2, 2009.
Plank, A.: The hidden risk in user-generated content: An investigation of ski tourers' revealed risk-taking behavior on an online outdoor sports platform, Tourism Manage., 55, 289–296, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.02.013, 2016.
Polasky, S., Carpenter, S. R., Folke, C., and Keeler, B.: Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change, Trends Ecol. Evol., 26, 398–404, 2011.
Pratt, J. W.: Risk aversion in the small and in the large, in: Uncertainty in economics, Elsevier, 59–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-214850-7.50010-3, 1978.
Pronin, E.: Perception and misperception of bias in human judgment, Trends Cogn. Sci., 11, 37–43, 2007.
Raue, M., Streicher, B., Lermer, E., and Frey, D.: Being active when judging risks: bodily states interfere with accurate risk analysis, J. Risk Res., 20, 445–462, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1057206, 2017.
Reale, C., Salwei, M. E., Militello, L. G., Weinger, M. B., Burden, A., Sushereba, C., Torsher, L. C., Andreae, M. H., Gaba, D. M., and McIvor, W. R.: Decision-making during high-risk events: a systematic literature review, Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 17, 188–212, 2023.
Saly, D., Hendrikx, J., Birkeland, K. W., Challender, S., and Johnson, J.: Using time lapse photography to document terrain preferences of backcountry skiers, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 172, 102994, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2020.102994, 2020.
Savage, L.: An empirical investigation into the effect of psychological perceptions on the willingness-to-pay to reduce risk, J. Risk Uncertainty, 6, 75–90, 1993.
Schweizer, J. and Lütschg, M.: Characteristics of human-triggered avalanches, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 33, 147–162, 2001.
Sharifpour, M., Walters, G., and Ritchie, B. W.: The mediating role of sensation seeking on the relationship between risk perceptions and travel behavior, Tourism Analysis, 18, 543–557, 2013.
Silverton, N. A., McIntosh, S. E., and Kim, H. S.: Avalanche safety practices in Utah, Wilderness Environ. Med., 18, 264–270, https://doi.org/10.1580/06-weme-or-049r2.1, 2007.
Silverton, N. A., McIntosh, S. E., and Kim, H. S.: Risk Assessment in Winter Backcountry Travel, Wilderness Environ. Med., 20, 269–274, https://doi.org/10.1580/08-weme-or-209r1.1, 2009.
Sjöberg, L.: The methodology of risk perception research, Qual. Quant., 34, 407–418, 2000.
Sjöoberg, L.: Factors in Risk Perception, Risk Anal., 20, 1–12, 2000.
Slovic, P.: Perception of Risk, Science, 236, 280–285, 1987.
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., and MacGregor, D. G.: The affect heuristic, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 177, 1333–1352, 2007.
Sole, A. E., Emery, C. A., Hagel, B. E., and Morrongiello, B. A.: Risk Taking in Avalanche Terrain: A Study of the Human Factor Contribution, Clin. J. Sport Med., 20, 445–451, https://doi.org/10.1097/JSM.0b013e3181fc0a6d, 2010.
Soule, B., Reynier, V., Lefevre, B., and Boutroy, E.: Who is at risk in the French mountains? Profiles of the accident victims in outdoor sports and mountain recreation, J. Mt. Sci., 14, 1490–1499, 2017.
Stalker, K.: Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Social Work, J. Soc. Work, 3, 211–233, 2003.
Stasser, G. and Titus, W.: Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: Biased information sampling during discussion., J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., 48, 1467, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.48.6.1467, 1985.
Stephensen, M. B., Martiny-Huenger, T., and Schulze, C.: Confidence in complex risk judgments: the roles of uncertainty, experience, and affect, OSF, https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/gk7xc, 2021a.
Stephensen, M. B., Schulze, C., Landrø, M., Hendrikx, J., and Hetland, A.: Should I judge safety or danger? Perceived risk depends on the question frame, J. Exp. Psychol.: Appl., 27, 485, https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000354, 2021b.
Sterchi, R. and Haegeli, P.: A method of deriving operation-specific ski run classes for avalanche risk management decisions in mechanized skiing, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019.
Stewart-Patterson, I.: Measuring decision expertise in commercial ski guiding in a more meaningful way, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 13, 44–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2015.11.009, 2016.
Sunstein, C. R. and Hastie, R.: Four Failures of Deliberating Groups, The University of Chicago, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1121400, 2008.
Sykes, J., Hendrikx, J., Johnson, J., and Birkeland, K. W.: Combining GPS tracking and survey data to better understand travel behavior of out-of-bounds skiers, Appl. Geogr., 122, 102261, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102261, 2020.
Thomas, D. L. and Diener, E.: Memory accuracy in the recall of emotions, J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., 59, 291–297, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.59.2.291, 1990.
Thumlert, S. and Haegeli, P.: Describing the severity of avalanche terrain numerically using the observed terrain selection practices of professional guides, Nat. Hazards, 91, 89–115, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3113-y, 2017.
Tøstesen, G. and Langseth, T.: Freeride Skiing – risk-taking, recognition, and moral boundaries, Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 3, 650564, https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2021.650564, 2021.
Tricco, A. C., Lillie, E., Zarin, W., O'Brien, K. K., Colquhoun, H., Levac, D., Moher, D., Peters, M. D., Horsley, T., and Weeks, L.: PRISMA extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR): checklist and explanation, Ann. Intern. Med., 169, 467–473, 2018.
Verplanken, B. and Aarts, H.: Habit, attitude, and planned behaviour: is habit an empty construct or an interesting case of goal-directed automaticity?, Eur. Rev. Soc. Psychol., 10, 101–134, 1999.
Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Begg, C., and Kuhlicke, C.: The Risk Perception Paradox – Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards, Risk Anal., 33, 1049–1065, 2012.
Walcher, M., Haegeli, P., and Fuchs, S.: Risk of death and major injury from natural winter hazards in helicopter and snowcat skiing in Canada, Wilderness Environ. Med., 30, 251–259, 2019.
Walker, E. and Latosuo, E.: Gendered decision-making practices in Alaska's dynamic mountain environments? A study of professional mountain guides, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 13, 18–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2015.11.010, 2016.
Wickens, C. D., Keller, J. W., and Shaw, C.: Human factors in high-altitude mountaineering, J. Hum. Perform. Ext. Environ., 12, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.7771/2327-2937.1065, 2015.
Williams, D. J. and Noyes, J. M.: How does our perception of risk influence decision-making? Implications for the design of risk information, Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science, 8, 1–35, 2007.
Witting, M., Filimon, S., and Kevork, S.: Carry along or not? Decision-making on carrying standard avalanche safety gear among ski tourers in a German touring region, Safety Sci., 143, 105406, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105406, 2021.
Woodside, A. G.: Informal Group Influence on Risk Taking, J. Marketing Res., 9, 223–225, 1972.
Yudkowsky, E.: Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks, Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford Academic, 91–119, ISBN 9780199606504, 2008.
Zajchowski, C. A. B., Brownlee, M. T. J., and Furman, N. N.: The Dialectical Utility of Heuristic Processing in Outdoor Adventure Education, Journal of Outdoor Recreation Education and Leadership, 8, 119–135, https://doi.org/10.18666/jorel-2016-v8-i2-7697, 2016.
Zweifel, B. and Haegeli, P.: A qualitative analysis of group formation, leadership and decision making in recreation groups traveling in avalanche terrain, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 5–6, 17–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2014.03.001, 2014.
Zweifel, B., Procter, E., Techel, F., Strapazzon, G., and Boutellier, R.: Risk of Avalanche Involvement in Winter Backcountry Recreation: The Advantage of Small Groups, Wilderness Environ. Med., 27, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2015.12.001, 2016.
Short summary
Research on human factors in avalanche decision-making has become increasingly popular in the past 2 decades. The studies span a wide range of disciplines and are published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of this literature, this study provides a systematic scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making. A total of 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main themes.
Research on human factors in avalanche decision-making has become increasingly popular in the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint