In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.

Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.