Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3421-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3421-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Research article
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16 Sep 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 16 Sep 2025

The 1538 eruption at the Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera: implications for future unrest and eruptive scenarios

Giuseppe Rolandi, Claudia Troise, Marco Sacchi, Massimo Di Lascio, and Giuseppe De Natale

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Editorial statement
I would like to support the proposal by the reviewer and the handling editor. This innovative study reconstructs the precursory phenomena of the 1538 Campi Flegrei eruption using historical records and recent volcanological data to develop two alternative scenarios that inform civil protection strategies for managing current unrest and potential eruptions in the densely populated area.
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Short summary
We compare recent unrest episodes at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy) with phenomena that occurred during the historical eruption in 1538. Besides proposing a new, accurate reconstruction of the ground movements in the area since the 8th century BCE, we deduce a striking similarity of the present unrest with the precursors to the 1538 eruption. We then infer that, if the ground uplift continues, earthquakes of up to magnitude 5 are expected, as well as a considerable eruption risk in the next few decades.
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