Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3421-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3421-2025
Research article
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16 Sep 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 16 Sep 2025

The 1538 eruption at the Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera: implications for future unrest and eruptive scenarios

Giuseppe Rolandi, Claudia Troise, Marco Sacchi, Massimo Di Lascio, and Giuseppe De Natale

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2035', Christopher Kilburn, 09 Sep 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Giuseppe De Natale, 02 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2035', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Nov 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Giuseppe De Natale, 02 Dec 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (10 Dec 2024) by Amy Donovan
AR by Giuseppe De Natale on behalf of the Authors (17 Jan 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Mar 2025) by Amy Donovan
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (24 Mar 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (13 Apr 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (23 Apr 2025) by Amy Donovan
AR by Giuseppe De Natale on behalf of the Authors (29 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (10 Jun 2025) by Amy Donovan
AR by Giuseppe De Natale on behalf of the Authors (24 Jun 2025)  Manuscript 
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Executive editor
I would like to support the proposal by the reviewer and the handling editor. This innovative study reconstructs the precursory phenomena of the 1538 Campi Flegrei eruption using historical records and recent volcanological data to develop two alternative scenarios that inform civil protection strategies for managing current unrest and potential eruptions in the densely populated area.
Short summary
We compare recent unrest episodes at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy) with phenomena that occurred during the historical eruption in 1538. Besides proposing a new, accurate reconstruction of the ground movements in the area since the 8th century BCE, we deduce a striking similarity of the present unrest with the precursors to the 1538 eruption. We then infer that, if the ground uplift continues, earthquakes of up to magnitude 5 are expected, as well as a considerable eruption risk in the next few decades.
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