Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Research article
 | 
11 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 11 Sep 2025

Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger-level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland

Frank Techel, Ross S. Purves, Stephanie Mayer, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler

Viewed

Total article views: 4,206 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
3,318 529 359 4,206 128 151
  • HTML: 3,318
  • PDF: 529
  • XML: 359
  • Total: 4,206
  • BibTeX: 128
  • EndNote: 151
Views and downloads (calculated since 25 Sep 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 25 Sep 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 4,206 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 4,081 with geography defined and 125 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved (final revised paper)

Latest update: 05 Jul 2026
Download
Short summary
We tested how well fully data- and model-driven avalanche forecasts compare to human-made forecasts, which also integrate added context like field observations or model output. Using data from Switzerland over three winters, we found that models – even without this extra input – performed nearly as well. While human forecasts still have a slight edge, model predictions already offer reliable support for daily avalanche forecasting.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint