Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Research article
 | 
11 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 11 Sep 2025

Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger-level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland

Frank Techel, Ross S. Purves, Stephanie Mayer, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler

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Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
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Short summary
We tested how well fully data- and model-driven avalanche forecasts compare to human-made forecasts, which also integrate added context like field observations or model output. Using data from Switzerland over three winters, we found that models – even without this extra input – performed nearly as well. While human forecasts still have a slight edge, model predictions already offer reliable support for daily avalanche forecasting.
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