Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3309-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3309-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 11 Sep 2025
| 11 Sep 2025
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin–Brandenburg, Germany
Jamir Priesner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Theoretical Ecology, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Straße 2/4, Gartenhaus, 14195 Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Boris Sakschewski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Maik Billing
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Werner von Bloh
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sebastian Fiedler
Theoretical Ecology, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Straße 2/4, Gartenhaus, 14195 Berlin, Germany
Department of Plant Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Sarah Bereswill
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kirsten Thonicke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Britta Tietjen
Theoretical Ecology, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Straße 2/4, Gartenhaus, 14195 Berlin, Germany
Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
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Marie Brunel, Stephen B. Wirth, Markus Drüke, Kirsten Thonicke, Henrique Barbosa, Jens Heinke, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 23, 939–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-939-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-939-2026, 2026
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Farmers often use fire to clear dead pasture biomass, impacting vegetation and soil nutrients. This study integrates fire management into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to assess its effects, focusing on Brazil. The results show that combining grazing and fire management reduces vegetation carbon and soil nitrogen over time. The research highlights the need to include these practices in models to improve pasture management assessments and calls for better data on fire usage and its long-term effects.
Sibyll Schaphoff, David Hötten, Christoph Müller, Dieter Gerten, Sebastian Ostberg, and Werner von Bloh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6210, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Methane is a strong greenhouse gas. We improved a global model of vegetation, soils and water so it can better show how methane forms and moves in wetlands and rice fields. The model now captures waterlogged areas, methane creation and escape, and flood-tolerant plants. It reproduces global wetland patterns and emissions more realistically, helping scientists assess how climate and land use changes may alter future methane release.
Jéssica Schüler, Sarah Bereswill, Werner von Bloh, Maik Billing, Boris Sakschewski, Luke Oberhagemann, Kirsten Thonicke, and Mercedes M. C. Bustamante
Biogeosciences, 23, 95–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-95-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-95-2026, 2026
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We introduced a new plant type into a global vegetation model to better represent the ecology of the Cerrado, South America's second largest biome. This improved the model’s ability to simulate vegetation structure, root systems, and fire dynamics, aligning more closely with observations. Our results enhance understanding of tropical savannas and provide a stronger basis for studying their responses to fire and climate change at regional and global scales.
Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475, 2025
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We present a new modelling framework that links global vegetation and agricultural modelling with human decision-making processes in an integrated simulation approach. This makes it possible to explore how farming practices and environmental changes influence each other over time. By combining climate, land use, and social dynamics in one system, the framework opens new ways to study food security, climate adaptation strategies, and long-term impacts.
Felix Nößler, Thibault Moulin, Oksana Buzhdygan, Britta Tietjen, and Felix May
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7077–7128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7077-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7077-2025, 2025
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To simulate the response of grassland plant communities to management and climate change, we developed the computer model GrasslandTraitSim.jl. Unlike other models, it uses measurable plant traits such as height, leaf thinness, and root structure as inputs, rather than hard-to-measure physiological species data. This allows the simulation of many species. The model tracks daily changes in above- and below-ground biomass, plant height, and soil water.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Giles B. Sioen, Ana Bastos, Yolandi Ernst, Marcin P. Jarzebski, Niak S. Koh, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Amanda J. Aceituno, Andra-Ioana Horcea-Milcu, Andrea Marais-Potgieter, Ayyoob Sharifi, Caroline Howe, Cornelia B. Krug, Eduardo E. Acosta, Emmanuel F. Nzunda, Erik Andersson, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Helen Sooväli-Sepping, Ishihara Hiroe, Ivan Palmegiani, Kaera Coetzer, Kirsten Thonike, Krizler Tanalgo, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger, Nicholas O. Oguge, Mi S. Park, Milena Gross, Pablo De La Cruz, Paula R. Prist, Peng Bi, Rivera Diego, Roman Isaac, Rosemary McFarlane, Sinikka J. Paulus, Stefanie Burkhart, Sung-Ching Lee, Susanne Müller, Uchi D. Terhile, Wan-Yu Shih, William K. Smith, Viola Hakkarainen, Virginia Murray, Yuki Yoshida, Yohannes T. Damtew, and Zeenat Niazi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3619, 2025
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The aim of this series is to provide decision-makers with valuable insights into the current state of biosphere research. Firstly, it is intended to ensure the flow of information between the comprehensive assessment reports of the IPCC and IPBES. On the other hand, it is intended to support economic and political decisions closely related to the biosphere with scientifically sound findings – including uncertainties – and comprehensive polysolutions, helping to solve the earth system polycrisis.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2021–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, 2025
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Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 21, 5539–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024, 2024
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Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe, but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data, and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland areas of Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs. non-cropland to the point that some variables, e.g. population density, had the complete opposite effects.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Markus Drüke, Wolfgang Lucht, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Arne Tobian, Sina Loriani, Sibyll Schaphoff, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, 2024
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The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization of the Earth system. We use the comprehensive Earth system model POEM to study the impact of the interacting boundaries for climate change and land system change. Our study shows the importance of long-term effects on carbon dynamics and climate, as well as the need to investigate both boundaries simultaneously and to generally keep both boundaries within acceptable ranges to avoid a catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Jenny Niebsch, Werner von Bloh, Kirsten Thonicke, and Ronny Ramlau
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023, 2023
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The impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to study the effects of multiple processes in the biosphere under climate change. There is a demand for a better computational performance of the models. In this paper, the photosynthesis model in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land DGVM (4.0.002) was examined. We found a better numerical solution of a nonlinear equation. A significant run time reduction was possible.
Phillip Papastefanou, Christian S. Zang, Zlatan Angelov, Aline Anderson de Castro, Juan Carlos Jimenez, Luiz Felipe Campos De Rezende, Romina C. Ruscica, Boris Sakschewski, Anna A. Sörensson, Kirsten Thonicke, Carolina Vera, Nicolas Viovy, Celso Von Randow, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 19, 3843–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, 2022
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The Amazon rainforest has been hit by multiple severe drought events. In this study, we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010 and 2015/16 in the Amazon. Using nine different precipitation datasets and three drought indicators we find large differences in drought stress across the Amazon region. We conclude that future studies should use multiple rainfall datasets and drought indicators when estimating the impact of drought stress in the Amazon region.
Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Anna Amelia Sörensson, Romina Ruscica, Fanny Langerwisch, Maik Billing, Sarah Bereswill, Marina Hirota, Rafael Silva Oliveira, Jens Heinke, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 18, 4091–4116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, 2021
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This study shows how local adaptations of tree roots across tropical and sub-tropical South America explain patterns of biome distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration on this continent. By allowing for high diversity of tree rooting strategies in a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), we are able to mechanistically explain patterns of mean rooting depth and the effects on ecosystem functions. The approach can advance DGVMs and Earth system models.
Markus Drüke, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Willem Huiskamp, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4117–4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, 2021
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In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated state-of-the-art dynamic LPJmL5 global vegetation model to the CM2Mc coupled climate model (CM2Mc-LPJmL v.1.0). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. The new climate model is able to capture important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation).
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
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Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
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Short summary
In our simulations increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in temperate pine monoculture and mixed forests. Mixed forests eventually recovered as long as drought frequency was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broadleaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth. This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
In our simulations increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in...
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