Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Research article
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05 Sep 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 05 Sep 2025

Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms

Roberto Giovanni Francese, Roberto Valentino, Wilfried Haeberli, Aldino Bondesan, Massimo Giorgi, Stefano Picotti, Franco Pettenati, Denis Sandron, Gianni Ramponi, and Mauro Valt

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Latest update: 26 Oct 2025
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The avalanche event of 2022 investigated in this paper is one of the deadliest historically recorded in the Alps. The assessment of the predisposing and triggering factors is of particular relevance in a climate change context, as the occurrence of extremely high temperatures is expected to occur in increasing frequency. The paper provides a numerical simulation approach that can assist a more general risk analysis for this type of natural hazards.
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Short summary
The Marmolada Glacier collapse (3 July 2022), one of the deadliest in the Alps, caused 11 fatalities and occurred during an anomalously warm summer. Analysis links the failure to the combined action of permafrost degradation, elevated ice temperatures, hydrostatic pressure, hydraulic jacking and reduced basal friction. No single factor alone explains the failure. The event highlights how climate-driven thermal and hydraulic factors increasingly threaten the stability of cold mountain glaciers.
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