Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2863-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2863-2025
Research article
 | 
26 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2025

Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate-connected tropical cyclone event sets globally

Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau

Cited articles

Aon: Weather, Climate and Catastrophe Insight, Aon, https://www.aon.com/getmedia/1b516e4d-c5fa-4086-9393-5e6afb0eeded/20220125-2021-weather-climate-catastrophe-insight.pdf.aspx (last access: August 2024), 2021. 
Aon: Q1 Global Catastrophe Recap (PDF) (Report), Aon Benfield, https://www.aon.com/reinsurance/getmedia/af1248d6-9332-4878-8c92-572c1bf3c19d/20221204-q1-2022-catastrophe-recap.pdf (last access: 22 August 2025), 2022. 
Arthur, W. C.: A statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 893–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021, 2021. 
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, H., de Moel, I. D., Haarsma, R., and Aerts, J.: Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Scientific Data, 7, 40, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2, 2020. 
Breiman, L.: Statistical modelling: The two cultures, Stat. Sci., 16, 199–231, https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1009213726, 2001. 
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Short summary
Tropical cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the early 1990s. To date, these models have mostly been built from backward-looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. Here we introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward-looking views of TC risk.
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