Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2657-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2657-2025
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
13 Aug 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Aug 2025

Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation

Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke

Cited articles

AIDR, NEMA: Australian Warning System, https://australianwarningsystem.com.au (last access: 6 August 2025), 2024. a
Aldridge, T., Gunawan, O., Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., Boyce, G., and Cowling, R.: Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk, J. Flood Risk Manag., 13, e12641, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12641, 2020. a
Balakrishnan, N. and Wang, J.: Simple efficient estimation for the three-parameter gamma distribution, J. Stat. Plan. Infer., 85, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3758(99)00074-9, 2000. a
Ball, D. J. and Watt, J.: Further thoughts on the utility of risk matrices, Risk Anal., 33, 2068–2078, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12057, 2013. a
Barbados Meteorological Services: Weather Impact Matrix, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ0cuYm1FkI (last access: 6 August 2025), 2020. a
Download
Editorial statement
This study shows that damaging weather events such as hail, floods, and storms frequently cluster in time, especially in summer, and that such multi-hazard clusters are linked to significantly higher losses. The findings offer practical insights for improving multi-hazard early warning systems and risk communication.
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. Illustrative examples demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint