Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2657-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
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- Final revised paper (published on 13 Aug 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Mar 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-323', Samar Momin, 12 Apr 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Robert Taggart, 06 May 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-323', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Apr 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Robert Taggart, 06 May 2025
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RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-323', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Apr 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Robert Taggart, 06 May 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (06 May 2025) by David J. Peres
AR by Robert Taggart on behalf of the Authors (15 May 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (28 May 2025) by David J. Peres
AR by Robert Taggart on behalf of the Authors (02 Jun 2025)
General Comments:
This paper introduces a mathematically rigorous framework for issuing and evaluating multi-level warnings derived from risk matrices. It addresses critical weaknesses in current risk matrix-based warning systems, such as inconsistency, lack of objectivity, and absence of formal verification mechanisms. The framework is probabilistic, hazard-agnostic, and compatible with the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), making it widely applicable in disaster risk management.
The manuscript is technically strong, well-written, and well-structured. It clearly explains the conceptual foundation and mathematical formulation, with practical examples and synthetic experiments demonstrating real-world and theoretical robustness, and provides an open-source Python-based code.
Strengths:
1. Innovation and Relevance:
The paper presents a coherent warning framework that resolves known inconsistencies in traditional risk matrices. The risk matrix score and warning score are introduced as consistent, theoretically grounded methods for evaluation.
2. Operational Usability:
The framework is flexible and compatible with real-time systems (e.g., CAP-based alerting), and can be applied across hazards and domains.
3. Synthetic Experiment and Case Study:
The use of six distinct synthetic forecasters in a probabilistic setup illustrates the scoring method’s discriminative power. The Tropical Cyclone Jasper case study shows practical feasibility in a high-impact, real-world scenario.
4. Clarity and Depth:
The manuscript does an excellent job explaining the logic behind severity-certainty structuring, lead-time sensitivity, and score weighting using realistic examples.
5. Open-Source Tooling:
Providing a Python implementation in the scores package adds major value and supports reproducibility.
Specific Comments:
1. Terminology and Framing:
While the mathematical rigor is a strength, early sections could benefit from briefly reinforcing why these inconsistencies in risk matrices matter for public safety and policy credibility. Consider simplifying the initial explanation of “forecast directive” and “warning directive” for non-technical readers.
2. Comparison with Existing Systems:
The distinction from the UK Met Office (UKMO) and other operational frameworks is clear, but it might help to include a side-by-side visual comparison in an appendix or supplementary material (if possible).
3. Evaluation Weights:
The method for deriving weights from stakeholder input (e.g., community consultation on false alarm vs. miss costs) is strong. However, a brief reflection on the subjectivity and variability in such consultations would add depth.
4. Scalability to Multi-Hazard Systems:
Although the framework is hazard-agnostic, a discussion on how it could scale or adapt to multi-hazard interactions (e.g., flood + wind) would strengthen its applicability. That being said, it would be helpful to shed light on this framework toward earthquake hazards as they are growing in frequency (if possible).
5. Lead Time Scaling:
The use of distinct matrices for LONG-, MID-, and SHORT-range phases is excellent. It would be helpful to mention how this could be dynamically updated as new ensemble data arrives.