Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2657-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2657-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
13 Aug 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Aug 2025

Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation

Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke

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Editorial statement
This study shows that damaging weather events such as hail, floods, and storms frequently cluster in time, especially in summer, and that such multi-hazard clusters are linked to significantly higher losses. The findings offer practical insights for improving multi-hazard early warning systems and risk communication.
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Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. Illustrative examples demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
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