Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Maria Staudinger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
Martina Kauzlaric
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Alexandre Mas
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France
Guillaume Evin
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France
Benoit Hingray
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France
Daniel Viviroli
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Integrating land use scenarios with pluvial flood modelling to evaluate spatial development strategies for climate adaptation in the Stuttgart region J. McMillan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04267-5
- Urban flood hazard in the context of rapid urban growth in the Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Nepal S. Banstola & S. Aldrich https://doi.org/10.1007/s44327-026-00219-x
- Compounding hazards increase flood economic losses across Europe M. Ronco et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73248-0
- Flood Inundation Area Prediction Under Climate Change Scenarios by Integrating Hydrological and Hydraulic Models with a Hybrid Deep Learning Framework T. Nawasanchai et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18111360
- Compound Spring Flood Hazards in Kazakhstan and Comparable Cold-Continental Regions: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Recovery Assessment S. Nurakynov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18141717
- Understanding the organizing scales of winter flood hydroclimatology and the associated drivers over the coterminous United States J. Hwang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2025.100200
- Partitioning uncertainties of extreme flood estimates using long continuous simulations E. Kritidou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134804
- Catchment hydrological response and transport are affected differently by precipitation intensity and antecedent wetness J. Knapp et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3673-2025
- Unveiling the limits of deep learning models in hydrological extrapolation tasks S. Baste et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5871-2025
- Leveraging reforecasts for flood estimation with long continuous simulation: a proof-of-concept study D. Viviroli et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1835-2026
- Interpretable feature incorporation machine-learning framework for flood magnitude estimation E. Ford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2135-2026
- From extreme days to event-scale persistence: Characterizing for persistent extreme precipitation across multisource datasets Z. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100905
- Numerical Simulation of Rainfall-Induced Debris Flows Triggered by Cyclone Yaku 2023 in Chasquitambo, Peru H. Flores et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13030083
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Integrating land use scenarios with pluvial flood modelling to evaluate spatial development strategies for climate adaptation in the Stuttgart region J. McMillan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04267-5
- Urban flood hazard in the context of rapid urban growth in the Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Nepal S. Banstola & S. Aldrich https://doi.org/10.1007/s44327-026-00219-x
- Compounding hazards increase flood economic losses across Europe M. Ronco et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73248-0
- Flood Inundation Area Prediction Under Climate Change Scenarios by Integrating Hydrological and Hydraulic Models with a Hybrid Deep Learning Framework T. Nawasanchai et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18111360
- Compound Spring Flood Hazards in Kazakhstan and Comparable Cold-Continental Regions: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Recovery Assessment S. Nurakynov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18141717
- Understanding the organizing scales of winter flood hydroclimatology and the associated drivers over the coterminous United States J. Hwang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2025.100200
- Partitioning uncertainties of extreme flood estimates using long continuous simulations E. Kritidou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134804
- Catchment hydrological response and transport are affected differently by precipitation intensity and antecedent wetness J. Knapp et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3673-2025
- Unveiling the limits of deep learning models in hydrological extrapolation tasks S. Baste et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5871-2025
- Leveraging reforecasts for flood estimation with long continuous simulation: a proof-of-concept study D. Viviroli et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1835-2026
- Interpretable feature incorporation machine-learning framework for flood magnitude estimation E. Ford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2135-2026
- From extreme days to event-scale persistence: Characterizing for persistent extreme precipitation across multisource datasets Z. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100905
- Numerical Simulation of Rainfall-Induced Debris Flows Triggered by Cyclone Yaku 2023 in Chasquitambo, Peru H. Flores et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13030083
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 10 Aug 2026
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying...
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