Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
Research article
 | 
04 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jul 2025

Dynamic fragility of a slender rock pillar in a carbonate rock mass

Alaa Jbara and Michael Tsesarsky

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Short summary
Fragile geologic features test long-term seismic hazard models. We modeled a free-standing 42 m high rock pillar in Israel’s Negev Desert using a validated finite-element model based on aerial lidar, in situ rock data, and measured vibrations. Dynamic analysis shows an M 7 quake on the Dead Sea Transform (45 km) will not break it, but an M 6 quake on the Sinai–Negev Shear Zone (6–20 km) probably will. With a fragility age of 11.4 kyr, the pillar challenges the SNSZ’s (Sinai–Negev Shear Zone) ability to produce M 6 events.
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