Consistency between a strain rate model and the ESHM20 earthquake rate forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard

Donniol Jouve, Bénédicte; Socquet, Anne; Beauval, Céline; Piña Valdès, Jesus; Danciu, Laurentiu

doi:10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 6

Research article

|

02 Jun 2025

Research article |

| 02 Jun 2025

Consistency between a strain rate model and the ESHM20 earthquake rate forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard

Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesus Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu

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We investigate how geodetic monitoring enhances accuracy in seismic hazard assessment. By utilizing geodetic strain rate maps for Europe and the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 source model, we compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across the continent while addressing associated uncertainties. Our analysis reveals primary compatibility in high-activity zones. In well-constrained regions of lower activity, we also observed an overlap in the distribution of seismic and geodetic moments.

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