Articles | Volume 25, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 May 2025
Research article |
| 13 May 2025
| 13 May 2025
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Ilona Láng-Ritter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Terhi Kristiina Laurila
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Antti Mäkelä
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Hilppa Gregow
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Victoria Anne Sinclair
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, P.O. Box 64, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
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Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Alexander Gohm, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 11171–11187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11171-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11171-2026, 2026
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This study investigates the effect of black carbon on the diurnal winds within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. Absorption of solar radiation by black carbon weakens the up-slope winds, but unexpectedly strengthens the afternoon up-valley winds. This happens because weaker up-slope winds remove less momentum from the valley, allowing the up-valley winds to become stronger even though the overall driving force is reduced by the absorption.
Meri Virman, Terhi K. Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Petter Lind, Anna Luomaranta, and Hilppa Gregow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4247, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Possible future changes in atmospheric conditions favourable for thunderstorms in Fennoscandia are investigated using HCLIM climate model data at 3 km spatial resolution. The frequency of thunderstorm- and severe-thunderstorm-favourable days is projected to increase across Fennoscandia under medium- and high-emission scenarios. The findings improve understanding of future thunderstorm hazards and support climate adaptation in Fennoscandia, where such information is currently limited.
Aino Ovaska, Daniel Holmberg, Elio Rauth, Mansour Alghamdi, Paulo Artaxo, Eija Asmi, John Backman, Benjamin Bergmans, Matthew Boyer, Liezl Bredenkamp, Maurizio Busetto, Delano Campos De Oliveira, Juan Andrés Casquero-Vera, Darius Ceburnis, Tak Chan, Tommy Chan, Sebastien Conil, Daniele Contini, Suzanne Crumeyrolle, Valentin Duflot, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Johan Esveld, Ekaterina Ezhova, Markus Fiebig, Shahzad Gani, Olga Garmash, Francisco Gómez-Moreno, Roy M. Harrison, Andras Hoffer, Rakesh Hooda, Antti Hyvärinen, Tareq Hussein, Jorma Joutsensaari, Nikos Kalivitis, Heinz Kaminski, Jutta Kesti, Radovan Krejci, Adam Kristensson, Chongai Kuang, Markku Kulmala, Lauri Laakso, Ari Leskinen, Heikki Lihavainen, Andreas Massling, Maik Merkel, Steffen Noe, Jakub Ondracek, Noemí Perez, Jean-Eudes Petit, Tuukka Petäjä, Michael Pikridas, Christopher Pöhlker, Mira Pöhlker, Jean-Philippe Putaud, Ximeng Qi, Cristina Reche, Sergio Rodríguez, Petr Roztocil, Jean Sciare, Karine Sellegri, Dongjie Shang, Ashish Singh, Mikko Sipilä, Henrik Skov, Mar Sorribas, Tamanna Subba, Junying Sun, Peter Tunved, Ville Vakkari, Pieter G. Van Zyl, Aki Virkkula, Jens Voigtländer, Kay Weinhold, Alfred Wiedensohler, Hee-Jung Yoo, Putian Zhou, Kai Puolamäki, Tuomo Nieminen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Pauli Paasonen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-415, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-415, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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All clouds form around aerosol particles, and their abundance influences cloud properties. In turn, clouds affect climate by changing how energy moves through the atmosphere, making them important for climate change. To better understand these interactions, we need accurate information on how many aerosol particles are in the atmosphere. Therefore, we have developed a new 21-year global dataset of particle concentrations relevant for cloud formation.
Manuel Bettineschi, Arineh Cholakian, Victoria Sinclair, Katerina Sindelarova, Arnaud P. Praplan, Steven J. Thomas, Tuukka Petäjä, Federico Bianchi, and Giancarlo Ciarelli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 8067–8088, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8067-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8067-2026, 2026
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We studied how forests in Finland release natural gases that affect air quality and climate. Existing models strongly overestimated these emissions because they used overly simple forest descriptions. By adding detailed information on tree species, we greatly improved agreement with real measurements. This means more realistic estimates of particle formation in the air. Our results show that accurate forest data are essential for reliable climate and air quality predictions.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-873-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-873-2026, 2026
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Understanding the intensification of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is important from weather forecasting and climate perspectives due to their societal impacts and major role in mid-latitude weather. Here we show that precursors to ETC intensification at genesis time show physically meaningful controls on the final maximum ETC intensity. However, to understand in detail the processes leading to differences in intensity between ETCs, one should study the evolution of multiple ETC precursors.
Taru Olsson, Terhi Laurila, Ari Aaltonen, and Kirsti Jylhä
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2363, 2026
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Strong winds coinciding with heavy snowfall can damage infrastructure, disrupt daily life and threaten safety. We examined how often these events occur in Finland and how long-lasting and severe they are, using reanalysis data. Such events were most common in coastal and eastern areas and usually short, while long and intense cases were rare. These events can challenge energy supply and essential services, highlighting the need to consider combined weather hazards in societal risk planning.
Andrea Vajda, Hilppa Gregow, Natalia Korhonen, Jari Lavonen, Katja Anniina Lauri, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Antti Mäkelä, Petri Räisänen, Veli-Matti Vesterinen, Ilona Ylivinkka, Mikko Äijälä, Andrea Böhnisch, and Laura Riuttanen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-227, 2026
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The paper describes the development of a new graduate course, Living with Changing Climate, designed to help future professionals apply climate information in real-world decisions. Created by experts from several fields, the course combines climate science, data use and real-word applications. Piloting with diverse students revealed challenges and improvements that strengthened the final course, showing how higher education can better prepare learners for climate adaptation and mitigation.
Aino Ovaska, Elio Rauth, Daniel Holmberg, Paulo Artaxo, John Backman, Benjamin Bergmans, Don Collins, Marco Aurélio Franco, Shahzad Gani, Roy M. Harrison, Rakesh K. Hooda, Tareq Hussein, Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen, Kerneels Jaars, Adam Kristensson, Markku Kulmala, Lauri Laakso, Ari Laaksonen, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Colin O'Dowd, Jakub Ondracek, Tuukka Petäjä, Kristina Plauškaitė, Mira Pöhlker, Ximeng Qi, Peter Tunved, Ville Vakkari, Alfred Wiedensohler, Kai Puolamäki, Tuomo Nieminen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Pauli Paasonen
Aerosol Research, 3, 589–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-589-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-589-2025, 2025
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We trained machine learning models to estimate the number of aerosol particles large enough to form clouds and generated daily estimates for the entire globe. The models performed well in many continental regions but struggled in remote and marine areas. Still, this approach offers a way to quantify these particles in areas that lack direct measurements, helping us understand their influence on clouds and climate on a global scale.
Sara Tahvonen, Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1299–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1299-2025, 2025
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Rossby wave breaking (RWB) influences weather at a large scale and can contribute to extreme weather events, but it is not known if climate change will have an effect on where and how often RWB occurs. We investigate how extreme sea ice loss and warming of the sea surface effect RWB. Our results show that sea surface temperatures significantly change local RWB frequencies and the closely related upper atmospheric jet streams, but that sea ice changes have no noticeable effect in our experiments.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
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The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 669–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025, 2025
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We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drives these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift.
Johannes Mikkola, Alexander Gohm, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 511–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, 2025
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This study investigates the influence of valley floor inclination on diurnal winds and passive tracer transport within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. The valley inclination strengthens the daytime up-valley winds but only up to a certain point. Beyond that critical angle, the winds weaken again. The inclined valleys transport the tracers higher up in the free troposphere, which would, for example, lead to higher potential for long-range transport.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Radovan Krejci, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Luis Blacutt, Runlong Cai, Samara Carbone, Yvette Gramlich, Liine Heikkinen, Dominic Heslin-Rees, Wei Huang, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Markku Kulmala, Paolo Laj, Valeria Mardoñez-Balderrama, Claudia Mohr, Isabel Moreno, Pauli Paasonen, Wiebke Scholz, Karine Sellegri, Laura Ticona, Gaëlle Uzu, Fernando Velarde, Alfred Wiedensohler, Doug Worsnop, Cheng Wu, Chen Xuemeng, Qiaozhi Zha, and Federico Bianchi
Aerosol Research, 3, 15–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-15-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-15-2025, 2025
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This study examines new particle formation (NPF) in the Bolivian Andes at Chacaltaya mountain (CHC) and the urban El Alto–La Paz area (EAC). Days are clustered into four categories based on NPF intensity. Differences in particle size, precursor gases, and pollution levels are found. High NPF intensities increased Aitken mode particle concentrations at both sites, while volcanic influence selectively diminished NPF intensity at CHC but not EAC. This study highlights NPF dynamics in the Andes.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
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Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Zoé Brasseur, Julia Schneider, Janne Lampilahti, Ville Vakkari, Victoria A. Sinclair, Christina J. Williamson, Carlton Xavier, Dmitri Moisseev, Markus Hartmann, Pyry Poutanen, Markus Lampimäki, Markku Kulmala, Tuukka Petäjä, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Erik S. Thomson, Kristina Höhler, Ottmar Möhler, and Jonathan Duplissy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11305–11332, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11305-2024, 2024
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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) strongly influence the formation of clouds by initiating the formation of ice crystals. However, very little is known about the vertical distribution of INPs in the atmosphere. Here, we present aircraft measurements of INP concentrations above the Finnish boreal forest. Results show that near-surface INPs are efficiently transported and mixed within the boundary layer and occasionally reach the free troposphere.
Clément Bouvier, Daan van den Broek, Madeleine Ekblom, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2961–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, 2024
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An analytical initial background state has been developed for moist baroclinic wave simulation on an aquaplanet and implemented into OpenIFS. Seven parameters can be controlled, which are used to generate the background states and the development of baroclinic waves. The meteorological and numerical stability has been assessed. Resulting baroclinic waves have proven to be realistic and sensitive to the jet's width.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
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We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Qiaozhi Zha, Wei Huang, Diego Aliaga, Otso Peräkylä, Liine Heikkinen, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Cheng Wu, Joonas Enroth, Yvette Gramlich, Jing Cai, Samara Carbone, Armin Hansel, Tuukka Petäjä, Markku Kulmala, Douglas Worsnop, Victoria Sinclair, Radovan Krejci, Marcos Andrade, Claudia Mohr, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4559–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4559-2023, 2023
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We investigate the chemical composition of atmospheric cluster ions from January to May 2018 at the high-altitude research station Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.) in the Bolivian Andes. With state-of-the-art mass spectrometers and air mass history analysis, the measured cluster ions exhibited distinct diurnal and seasonal patterns, some of which contributed to new particle formation. Our study will improve the understanding of atmospheric ions and their role in high-altitude new particle formation.
Wiebke Scholz, Jiali Shen, Diego Aliaga, Cheng Wu, Samara Carbone, Isabel Moreno, Qiaozhi Zha, Wei Huang, Liine Heikkinen, Jean Luc Jaffrezo, Gaelle Uzu, Eva Partoll, Markus Leiminger, Fernando Velarde, Paolo Laj, Patrick Ginot, Paolo Artaxo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Markku Kulmala, Claudia Mohr, Marcos Andrade, Victoria Sinclair, Federico Bianchi, and Armin Hansel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 895–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-895-2023, 2023
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Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), emitted from the ocean, is the most abundant biogenic sulfur emission into the atmosphere. OH radicals, among others, can oxidize DMS to sulfuric and methanesulfonic acid, which are relevant for aerosol formation. We quantified DMS and nearly all DMS oxidation products with novel mass spectrometric instruments for gas and particle phase at the high mountain station Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.) in the Bolivian Andes in free tropospheric air after long-range transport.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
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Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Victoria Anne Sinclair, Jenna Ritvanen, Gabin Urbancic, Irene Erner, Yurii Batrak, Dmitri Moisseev, and Mona Kurppa
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3075–3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3075-2022, 2022
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We investigate the boundary-layer (BL) height and surface stability in southern Finland using radiosondes, a microwave radiometer and ERA5 reanalysis. Accurately quantifying the BL height is challenging, and the diagnosed BL height can depend strongly on the method used. Microwave radiometers provide reliable estimates of the BL height but only in unstable conditions. ERA5 captures the BL height well except under very stable conditions, which occur most commonly at night during the warm season.
Terhi K. Laurila, Hilppa Gregow, Joona Cornér, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021
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We create a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe and investigate how sensitive the minimum pressure and maximum gust of windstorms are to four precursors. Windstorms are more common in the cold season than the warm season, whereas the number of mid-latitude cyclones has no annual cycle. The low-level temperature gradient has the strongest impact of all considered precursors on the intensity of windstorms in terms of both the minimum pressure and maximum gust.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
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We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
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Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
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Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their...
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