Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
11 Jan 2024
Brief communication |
| 11 Jan 2024
| 11 Jan 2024
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Timothy W. Juliano
U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Fernando Szasdi-Bardales
Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Neil P. Lareau
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, USA
Kasra Shamsaei
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, USA
Branko Kosović
U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Negar Elhami-Khorasani
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Eric P. James
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Hamed Ebrahimian
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, USA
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Numerical Investigation of Surface–Atmosphere Interaction and Fire Danger in Northern Portugal: Insights into the Wildfires on July 29, 2025 F. Couto et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9030111
- Experimental Study of Heat Transfer Through Windows Exposed to a Radiant Panel Heater R. Schrader et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-024-01685-8
- Dynamic fire-atmosphere interaction in the 2020 Montana Bridger Foothills Wildfire as revealed by WRF-SFIRE simulations K. Cheung et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00132-0
- Modeling Neighborhoods as Fuel for Wildfire: A Review B. Young et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-025-01773-3
- FIPRED: A Study of Predictive Automated Displays for Wildfire Fighting Management R. Spenceley et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/10711813251364799
- Wildfires have created instability within risk transfer markets. Here’s a path forward M. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2530050122
- A methodology for quantifying structure fragility to fire in the wildland–urban interface utilizing past event investigations and fire and ember modeling M. Theodori et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF25146
- Optimal interventions to curb urban conflagration A. Chulahwat & H. Mahmoud https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2612835123
- Interactions Between a High-Intensity Wildfire and an Atmospheric Hydraulic Jump in the Case of the 2023 Lahaina Fire C. Ehrke et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121424
- Rethinking fire resilience in the built environment: A comparative review of post-earthquake and WUI fires N. Elhami-Khorasani https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104697
- Two weeks after the 2023 Maui wildfires: drinking water experiences and needs A. Whelton et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D4EW00216D
- An offline coupling of fire spread models to simulate the 2021 Marshall Fire F. Szasdi-Bardales et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24027
- Housing Displacement, Employment Disruption, and Mental Health After the 2023 Maui Wildfires R. Juarez et al. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2026.0044
- Effects of slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed on fire spreading behavior for various vegetation J. Seo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111141
- 2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3
- Impact of atmospheric turbulence on performance and loads of wind turbines: knowledge gaps and research challenges B. Kosović et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-509-2026
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Numerical Investigation of Surface–Atmosphere Interaction and Fire Danger in Northern Portugal: Insights into the Wildfires on July 29, 2025 F. Couto et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9030111
- Experimental Study of Heat Transfer Through Windows Exposed to a Radiant Panel Heater R. Schrader et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-024-01685-8
- Dynamic fire-atmosphere interaction in the 2020 Montana Bridger Foothills Wildfire as revealed by WRF-SFIRE simulations K. Cheung et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00132-0
- Modeling Neighborhoods as Fuel for Wildfire: A Review B. Young et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-025-01773-3
- FIPRED: A Study of Predictive Automated Displays for Wildfire Fighting Management R. Spenceley et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/10711813251364799
- Wildfires have created instability within risk transfer markets. Here’s a path forward M. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2530050122
- A methodology for quantifying structure fragility to fire in the wildland–urban interface utilizing past event investigations and fire and ember modeling M. Theodori et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF25146
- Optimal interventions to curb urban conflagration A. Chulahwat & H. Mahmoud https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2612835123
- Interactions Between a High-Intensity Wildfire and an Atmospheric Hydraulic Jump in the Case of the 2023 Lahaina Fire C. Ehrke et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121424
- Rethinking fire resilience in the built environment: A comparative review of post-earthquake and WUI fires N. Elhami-Khorasani https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104697
- Two weeks after the 2023 Maui wildfires: drinking water experiences and needs A. Whelton et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D4EW00216D
- An offline coupling of fire spread models to simulate the 2021 Marshall Fire F. Szasdi-Bardales et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24027
- Housing Displacement, Employment Disruption, and Mental Health After the 2023 Maui Wildfires R. Juarez et al. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2026.0044
- Effects of slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed on fire spreading behavior for various vegetation J. Seo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111141
- 2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3
- Impact of atmospheric turbulence on performance and loads of wind turbines: knowledge gaps and research challenges B. Kosović et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-509-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Aug 2026
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread...
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