Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
05 Dec 2024
Review article |
| 05 Dec 2024
| 05 Dec 2024
Review article: Physical vulnerability database for critical infrastructure hazard risk assessments – a systematic review and data collection
Sadhana Nirandjan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Elco E. Koks
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
Mengqi Ye
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Raghav Pant
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
Kees C. H. Van Ginkel
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Inland Water Systems, Deltares, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Philip J. Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Sadhana Nirandjan, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We use multi-source empirical damage data to generate vulnerability curves and assess the risk of transportation infrastructure to rainfall-induced hazards. The results show large variations in the shape of the vulnerability curves and risk of railway infrastructure in China across the different regions. The usage of multi-source empirical data offer opportunities to perform risk assessments that include spatial detail among regions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
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As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
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This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
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Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, 2024
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Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection is limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTPROS-EU, which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Ileen N. Streefkerk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jens de Bruijn, Khalid Hassaballah, Rhoda Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Oliver Wasonga, and Anne F. Van Loon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, 2024
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In East Africa are conflict over water and vegetation prominent. On top of that, water abstraction of commercial farms are increasing the competition of water. Therefore, this study has developed a model which can investigate what the influence is of these farming activities on the water balance of the region and people's livelihood activities in times of dry periods. We do that by ‘replacing’ the farms in the model, and see what the effect would be if there were communities or forests instead.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, 2024
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This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, 2024
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Wiebke S. Jäger, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Philip J. Ward
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Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Multiple hazards, occurring at the same time or shortly after one another, can have more extreme impacts than single hazards. We examined the disaster records in the global emergency events database EM-DAT to better understand this phenomenon. We developed a method to identify such multi-hazards and analyzed their reported impacts using statistics. Multi-hazards have accounted for a disproportionate amount of the overall impacts, but there are different patterns in which the impacts compound.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
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Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
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Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
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Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
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We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
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Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
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This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
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We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
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Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Sadhana Nirandjan, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We use multi-source empirical damage data to generate vulnerability curves and assess the risk of transportation infrastructure to rainfall-induced hazards. The results show large variations in the shape of the vulnerability curves and risk of railway infrastructure in China across the different regions. The usage of multi-source empirical data offer opportunities to perform risk assessments that include spatial detail among regions.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
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Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter, Anaïs Couasnon, and Philip James Ward
Geosci. Commun., 4, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, 2021
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Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally, measures and policies are aimed at decreasing the potential damages of one particular hazard type despite their potential of having unwanted effects on other hazard types. We designed a serious game that helps professionals to improve their understanding of these potential negative effects of measures and policies that reduce the impacts of disasters across many different hazard types.
Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021
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This study presents a state-of-the-art approach to assess flood damage for each unique road segment in Europe. We find a mean total flood risk of EUR 230 million per year for all individual road segments combined. We identify flood hotspots in the Alps, along the Sava River, and on the Scandinavian Peninsula. To achieve this, we propose a new set of damage curves for roads and challenge the community to validate and improve these. Analysis of network effects can be easily added to our analysis.
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
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We compare and analyse flood hazard maps from eight global flood models that represent the current state of the global flood modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study, and for the first time, we include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood protection standards. We find substantial variability between the flood hazard maps in the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods and in expected annual exposed GDP.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
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We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020
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We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
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When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, 2019
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The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019
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Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed buildings and their flood impact. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, this model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes. This approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as developing countries and large scales, and enables vulnerability comparison across different natural disasters.
Shiqiang Du, Xiaotao Cheng, Qingxu Huang, Ruishan Chen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 715–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, 2019
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A mega-flood in 1998 caused tremendous losses in China and triggered major policy adjustments in flood-risk management. This paper rethinks these policy adjustments and discusses how China should adapt to newly emerging flood challenges. We suggest that China needs novel flood-risk management approaches to address the new challenges from rapid urbanization and climate change. These include risk-based urban planning and a coordinated water governance system.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4649–4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, 2018
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Drought is a natural hazard that has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts around the globe. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from precipitation droughts to soil moisture and streamflow droughts. Results show that propagation timescales are strongly related to climate type, with fast responses in tropical regions and slow responses in arid regions. Insight into the timescales of drought propagation globally may help improve seasonal drought forecasting.
Iris Manola, Bart van den Hurk, Hans De Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018
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In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Bart van den Hurk, Brenden Jongman, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Ted Veldkamp, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018, 2018
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Preparedness activities and flood forecasting have received increasing attention and have led towards new science-based early warning systems. Understanding the flood triggering mechanisms will result in increasing warning lead times, providing sufficient time for early action. Findings of this study indicate that the consideration of short- and long-term antecedent conditions can be used by humanitarian organizations and decision makers for improved flood risk management.
Marleen C. de Ruiter, Philip J. Ward, James E. Daniell, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017
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This study provides cross-discipline lessons for earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment methods by comparing indicators used in both fields. It appears that there is potential for improvement of these methods that can be obtained for both earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment indicators. This increased understanding is beneficial for both scientists as well as practitioners working with earthquake and/or flood vulnerability assessment methods.
Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Brenden Jongman, Jurjen Wagemaker, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-203, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this work we present TAGSS, an algorithm that extracts and geolocates tweets using locations mentioned in the text of a tweet. We have applied TAGGS to flood events. However, TAGGS has enormous potential for application in the broad field of geosciences and natural hazards of any kind in particular, where availability of timely and accurate information about the impacts of an ongoing event can assist relief organizations in enhancing their disaster response activities.
Jidong Wu, Xu Wang, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-17, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Building stock loss occupied a meaningful part of sudden-onset disasters, while raster-level building asset distribution map is scarce and not sufficient for disaster risk estimation. This paper introduces an efficient way for building asset value mapping by downscaling, given that the statistical building floor area and a building footprint map are available. It is expected that the method used in this paper is transferable to be applied in other cities if the two datasets are all available.
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
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In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Elco E. Koks, Lorenzo Carrera, Olaf Jonkeren, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Trond G. Husby, Mark Thissen, Gabriele Standardi, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, 2016
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In this study we analyze the economic consequences for two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally CGE model. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact is negative in all models though.
Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016
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Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.
Yus Budiyono, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Daniel Tollenaar, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, 2016
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The paper describes a model framework for assessing flood risk in Jakarta under current and future scenarios (2030 and 2050) including climate change, sea level rise, land use change, and land subsidence. The results shows individual impact of future changes and serve as a basis to evaluate adaptation strategies in cities. They also show while the impacts of climate change alone on flood risk in Jakarta are highly uncertain, the combined impacts of all drivers reveal a strong increase in risk.
D. Lee, P. Ward, and P. Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4689–4705, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a global approach to defining high-flow seasons by identifying temporal patterns of streamflow. Simulations of streamflow from the PCR-GLOBWB model are evaluated to define dominant and minor high-flow seasons globally, and verified with GRDC observations and flood records from Dartmouth Flood Observatory.
T. I. E. Veldkamp, S. Eisner, Y. Wada, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4081–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, 2015
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Freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks, partially driven by climate variability. Here we present a first global scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the most dominant climate variability signal. Given the found correlations, covering a large share of the global land area, and seen the developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we show that there is large potential for ENSO-based risk reduction.
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
P. Hudson, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, P. Bubeck, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1731–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, 2014
R. Lasage, T. I. E. Veldkamp, H. de Moel, T. C. Van, H. L. Phi, P. Vellinga, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1441–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1441-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1441-2014, 2014
B. Jongman, E. E. Koks, T. G. Husby, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1245–1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, 2014
P. J. Ward, S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014
H. C. Winsemius, L. P. H. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and A. Bouwman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1871–1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
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The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) over Spain
AscDAMs: advanced SLAM-based channel detection and mapping system
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A methodology to compile multi-hazard interrelationships in a data-scarce setting: an application to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Insights into the development of a landslide early warning system prototype in an informal settlement: the case of Bello Oriente in Medellín, Colombia
Tsunami hazard perception and knowledge of alert: early findings in five municipalities along the French Mediterranean coastlines
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Fabio Brill, Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Huihui Zhang, Friedrich Boeing, Silke Hüttel, and Tobia Lakes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4237–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024, 2024
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Droughts are a threat to agricultural crops, but different factors influence how much damage occurs. This is important to know to create meaningful risk maps and to evaluate adaptation options. We investigate the years 2013–2022 in Brandenburg, Germany, and find in particular the soil quality and meteorological drought in June to be statistically related to the observed damage. Measurement of crop health from satellites is also related to soil quality and not necessarily to anomalous yields.
Maria R. P. Sudibyo, Eva P. S. Eibl, Sebastian Hainzl, and Matthias Ohrnberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4075–4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4075-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4075-2024, 2024
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We assessed the performance of permutation entropy (PE), phase permutation entropy (PPE), and instantaneous frequency (IF), which are estimated from a single seismic station, to detect changes before, during, and after the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in Iceland. We show that these three parameters are sensitive to the pre-eruptive and eruptive processes. Finally, we discuss their potential and limitations in eruption monitoring.
Enrique A. Navarro, Jorge A. Portí, Alfonso Salinas, Sergio Toledo-Redondo, Jaume Segura-García, Aida Castilla, Víctor Montagud-Camps, and Inmaculada Albert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3925–3943, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3925-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3925-2024, 2024
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The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) operates a globally distributed network of stations that detect lightning signals at a planetary scale. A detection efficiency of 29 % with a location accuracy of between 2 and 3 km is obtained for the area of Spain by comparing WWLLN data with those of the Spanish State Meteorological Agency. The network's capability to resolve convective-storm cells generated in a cutoff low-pressure system is also demonstrated in the west Mediterranean Sea.
Tengfei Wang, Fucheng Lu, Jintao Qin, Taosheng Huang, Hui Kong, and Ping Shen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3075-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3075-2024, 2024
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Harsh environments limit the use of drone, satellite, and simultaneous localization and mapping technology to obtain precise channel morphology data. We propose AscDAMs, which includes a deviation correction algorithm to reduce errors, a point cloud smoothing algorithm to diminish noise, and a cross-section extraction algorithm to quantitatively assess the morphology data. AscDAMs solves the problems and provides researchers with more reliable channel morphology data for further analysis.
Vikas Ghadamode, Aruna Kumari Kondarathi, Anand K. Pandey, and Kirti Srivastava
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3013–3033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3013-2024, 2024
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In 2004-tsunami-affected South Andaman, tsunami wave propagation, arrival times, and run-up heights at 13 locations are computed to analyse pre- and post-tsunami shoreline and land use–land cover changes to understand the evolving hazard scenario. The LULC changes and dynamic shoreline changes are observed in zones 3, 4, and 5 owing to dynamic population changes, infrastructural growth, and gross state domestic product growth. Economic losses would increase 5-fold for a similar tsunami.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Christian Werthmann, Marta Sapena, Marlene Kühnl, John Singer, Carolina Garcia, Tamara Breuninger, Moritz Gamperl, Bettina Menschik, Heike Schäfer, Sebastian Schröck, Lisa Seiler, Kurosch Thuro, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1843–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1843-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1843-2024, 2024
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Early warning systems (EWSs) promise to decrease the vulnerability of self-constructed (informal) settlements. A living lab developed a partially functional prototype of an EWS for landslides in a Medellín neighborhood. The first findings indicate that technical aspects can be manageable, unlike social and political dynamics. A resilient EWS for informal settlements has to achieve sufficient social and technical redundancy to maintain basic functionality in a reduced-support scenario.
Johnny Douvinet, Noé Carles, Pierre Foulquier, and Matthieu Peroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 715–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-715-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-715-2024, 2024
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This study provided an opportunity to assess both the perception of the tsunami hazard and the knowledge of alerts in five municipalities located along the French Mediterranean coastlines. The age and location of the respondents explain several differences between the five municipalities surveyed – more so than gender or residence status. This study may help local authorities to develop future tsunami awareness actions and to identify more appropriate strategies to be applied in the short term.
Nathalie Rombeek, Jussi Leinonen, and Ulrich Hamann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 133–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-133-2024, 2024
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Severe weather such as hail, lightning, and heavy rainfall can be hazardous to humans and property. Dual-polarization weather radars provide crucial information to forecast these events by detecting precipitation types. This study analyses the importance of dual-polarization data for predicting severe weather for 60 min using an existing deep learning model. The results indicate that including these variables improves the accuracy of predicting heavy rainfall and lightning.
Adriaan L. van Natijne, Thom A. Bogaard, Thomas Zieher, Jan Pfeiffer, and Roderik C. Lindenbergh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3723–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, 2023
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Landslides are one of the major weather-related geohazards. To assess their potential impact and design mitigation solutions, a detailed understanding of the slope is required. We tested if the use of machine learning, combined with satellite remote sensing data, would allow us to forecast deformation. Our results on the Vögelsberg landslide, a deep-seated landslide near Innsbruck, Austria, show that the formulation of such a machine learning system is not as straightforward as often hoped for.
Xabier Blanch, Marta Guinau, Anette Eltner, and Antonio Abellan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3285–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3285-2023, 2023
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We present cost-effective photogrammetric systems for high-resolution rockfall monitoring. The paper outlines the components, assembly, and programming codes required. The systems utilize prime cameras to generate 3D models and offer comparable performance to lidar for change detection monitoring. Real-world applications highlight their potential in geohazard monitoring which enables accurate detection of pre-failure deformation and rockfalls with a high temporal resolution.
Vipasana Sharma, Sushil Kumar, and Rama Sushil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2523–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2523-2023, 2023
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Snow avalanches are a natural hazard that can cause danger to human lives. This threat can be reduced by accurate prediction of the danger levels. The development of mathematical models based on past data and present conditions can help to improve the accuracy of prediction. This research aims to develop a neural-network-based model for correlating complex relationships between the meteorological variables and the profile variables.
Guillermo Tamburini-Beliveau, Sebastián Balbarani, and Oriol Monserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1987–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1987-2023, 2023
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Landslides and ground deformation associated with the construction of a hydropower mega dam in the Santa Cruz River in Argentine Patagonia have been monitored using radar and optical satellite data, together with the analysis of technical reports. This allowed us to assess the integrity of the construction, providing a new and independent dataset. We have been able to identify ground deformation trends that put the construction works at risk.
Adrian Wicki, Peter Lehmann, Christian Hauck, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1059–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1059-2023, 2023
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Soil wetness measurements are used for shallow landslide prediction; however, existing sites are often located in flat terrain. Here, we assessed the ability of monitoring sites at flat locations to detect critically saturated conditions compared to if they were situated at a landslide-prone location. We found that differences exist but that both sites could equally well distinguish critical from non-critical conditions for shallow landslide triggering if relative changes are considered.
Anirudh Rao, Jungkyo Jung, Vitor Silva, Giuseppe Molinario, and Sang-Ho Yun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-789-2023, 2023
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This article presents a framework for semi-automated building damage assessment due to earthquakes from remote-sensing data and other supplementary datasets including high-resolution building inventories, while also leveraging recent advances in machine-learning algorithms. For three out of the four recent earthquakes studied, the machine-learning framework is able to identify over 50 % or nearly half of the damaged buildings successfully.
Jan Freihardt and Othmar Frey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 751–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-751-2023, 2023
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In Bangladesh, riverbank erosion occurs every year during the monsoon and affects thousands of households. Information on locations and extent of past erosion can help anticipate where erosion might occur in the upcoming monsoon season and to take preventive measures. In our study, we show how time series of radar satellite imagery can be used to retrieve information on past erosion events shortly after the monsoon season using a novel interactive online tool based on the Google Earth Engine.
Jiale Qian, Yunyan Du, Jiawei Yi, Fuyuan Liang, Nan Wang, Ting Ma, and Tao Pei
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 317–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-317-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-317-2023, 2023
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Human activities across China show a similar trend in response to rains. However, urban resilience varies significantly by region. The northwestern arid region and the central underdeveloped areas are very fragile, and even low-intensity rains can trigger significant human activity anomalies. By contrast, even high-intensity rains might not affect residents in the southeast.
Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Gonzalo Astray Dopazo, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3859–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, 2022
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Extreme events have increased in the last few decades; having a good estimation of the outflow of a reservoir can be an advantage for water management or early warning systems. This study analyzes the efficiency of different machine learning techniques to predict reservoir outflow. The results obtained showed that the proposed models provided a good estimation of the outflow of the reservoirs, improving the results obtained with classical approaches.
Seok Bum Hong, Hong Sik Yun, Sang Guk Yum, Seung Yeop Ryu, In Seong Jeong, and Jisung Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3435–3459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3435-2022, 2022
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This study advances previous models through machine learning and multi-sensor-verified results. Using spatial and meteorological data from the study area (Suncheon–Wanju Highway in Gurye-gun), the amount and location of black ice were modelled based on system dynamics to predict black ice and then simulated with the geographic information system (m2). Based on the model results, multiple sensors were buried at four selected points in the study area, and the model was compared with sensor data.
Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Adam B. Barrett, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2703–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022, 2022
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The devastating effects of recurring drought conditions are mostly felt by pastoralists that rely on grass and shrubs as fodder for their animals. Using historical information from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation health data, we developed a model that can forecast vegetation condition and the probability of drought occurrence up till a 10-week lead time with an accuracy of 74 %. Our model can be adopted by policymakers and relief agencies for drought early warning and early action.
Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2725–2749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022, 2022
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The impact of drought may vary in a given region depending on whether it is dominated by trees, grasslands, or croplands. The differences in impact can also be the agro-ecological zones within the region. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) for forecasting vegetation condition in spatially diverse areas. Compared to a non-hierarchical model, the HBM proved to be a more natural method for forecasting drought in areas with different land covers and
agro-ecological zones.
Weijie Zou, Yi Zhou, Shixin Wang, Futao Wang, Litao Wang, Qing Zhao, Wenliang Liu, Jinfeng Zhu, Yibing Xiong, Zhenqing Wang, and Gang Qin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2081–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2081-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2081-2022, 2022
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Landslide dams are secondary disasters caused by landslides, which can cause great damage to mountains. We have proposed a procedure to calculate the key parameters of these dams that uses only a single remote-sensing image and a pre-landslide DEM combined with landslide theory. The core of this study is a modeling problem. We have found the bridge between the theory of landslide dams and the requirements of disaster relief.
C. Scott Watson, John R. Elliott, Susanna K. Ebmeier, María Antonieta Vásquez, Camilo Zapata, Santiago Bonilla-Bedoya, Paulina Cubillo, Diego Francisco Orbe, Marco Córdova, Jonathan Menoscal, and Elisa Sevilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1699–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1699-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1699-2022, 2022
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We assess how greenspaces could guide risk-informed planning and reduce disaster risk for the urbanising city of Quito, Ecuador, which experiences earthquake, volcano, landslide, and flood hazards. We use satellite data to evaluate the use of greenspaces as safe spaces following an earthquake. We find disparities regarding access to and availability of greenspaces. The availability of greenspaces that could contribute to community resilience is high; however, many require official designation.
Seth Bryant, Heather McGrath, and Mathieu Boudreault
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022, 2022
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The advent of new satellite technologies improves our ability to study floods. While the depth of water at flooded buildings is generally the most important variable for flood researchers, extracting this accurately from satellite data is challenging. The software tool presented here accomplishes this, and tests show the tool is more accurate than competing tools. This achievement unlocks more detailed studies of past floods and improves our ability to plan for and mitigate disasters.
Tadas Nikonovas, Allan Spessa, Stefan H. Doerr, Gareth D. Clay, and Symon Mezbahuddin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 303–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-303-2022, 2022
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Extreme fire episodes in Indonesia emit large amounts of greenhouse gasses and have negative effects on human health in the region. In this study we show that such burning events can be predicted several months in advance in large parts of Indonesia using existing seasonal climate forecasts and forest cover change datasets. A reliable early fire warning system would enable local agencies to prepare and mitigate the worst of the effects.
Yahong Liu and Jin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 227–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-227-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-227-2022, 2022
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Through a comprehensive analysis of the current remote sensing technology resources, this paper establishes the database to realize the unified management of heterogeneous sensor resources and proposes a capability evaluation method of remote sensing cooperative technology in geohazard emergencies, providing a decision-making basis for the establishment of remote sensing cooperative observations in geohazard emergencies.
Diego Guenzi, Danilo Godone, Paolo Allasia, Nunzio Luciano Fazio, Michele Perrotti, and Piernicola Lollino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 207–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-207-2022, 2022
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In the Apulia region (southeastern Italy) we are monitoring a soft-rock coastal cliff using webcams and strain sensors. In this urban and touristic area, coastal recession is extremely rapid and rockfalls are very frequent. In our work we are using low-cost and open-source hardware and software, trying to correlate both meteorological information with measures obtained from crack meters and webcams, aiming to recognize potential precursor signals that could be triggered by instability phenomena.
Natalie Brožová, Tommaso Baggio, Vincenzo D'Agostino, Yves Bühler, and Peter Bebi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3539–3562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3539-2021, 2021
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Surface roughness plays a great role in natural hazard processes but is not always well implemented in natural hazard modelling. The results of our study show how surface roughness can be useful in representing vegetation and ground structures, which are currently underrated. By including surface roughness in natural hazard modelling, we could better illustrate the processes and thus improve hazard mapping, which is crucial for infrastructure and settlement planning in mountainous areas.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
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The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Johnny Douvinet, Anna Serra-Llobet, Esteban Bopp, and G. Mathias Kondolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2899–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2899-2021, 2021
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This study proposes to combine results of research regarding the spatial inequalities due to the siren coverage, the political dilemma of siren activation, and the social problem of siren awareness and trust for people in France. Surveys were conducted using a range of complementary methods (GIS analysis, statistical analysis, questionnaires, interviews) through different scales. Results show that siren coverage in France is often determined by population density but not risks or disasters.
Fabio Brighenti, Francesco Carnemolla, Danilo Messina, and Giorgio De Guidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2881–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2881-2021, 2021
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In this paper we propose a methodology to mitigate hazard in a natural environment in an urbanized context. The deformation of the ground is a precursor of paroxysms in mud volcanoes. Therefore, through the analysis of the deformation supported by a statistical approach, this methodology was tested to reduce the hazard around the mud volcano. In the future, the goal is that this dangerous area will become both a naturalistic heritage and a source of development for the community of the area.
Doris Hermle, Markus Keuschnig, Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, and Michael Krautblatter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2753–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, 2021
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Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its applicability to time-critical early warning is rarely studied. We present a concept to operationalise its use for landslide early warning, aiming to extend lead time. We tested PlanetScope and unmanned aerial system images on a complex mass movement and compared processing times to historic benchmarks. Acquired data are within the forecasting window, indicating the feasibility for landslide early warning.
Michal Bíl, Pavel Raška, Lukáš Dolák, and Jan Kubeček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2581–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2581-2021, 2021
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The online landslide database CHILDA (Czech Historical Landslide Database) summarises information about landslides which occurred in the area of Czechia (the Czech Republic). The database is freely accessible via the https://childa.cz/ website. It includes 699 records (spanning the period of 1132–1989). Overall, 55 % of all recorded landslide events occurred only within 15 years of the extreme landslide incidence.
Anna Kruspe, Jens Kersten, and Friederike Klan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1825–1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1825-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1825-2021, 2021
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Messages on social media can be an important source of information during crisis situations. This article reviews approaches for the reliable detection of informative messages in a flood of data. We demonstrate the varying goals of these approaches and present existing data sets. We then compare approaches based (1) on keyword and location filtering, (2) on crowdsourcing, and (3) on machine learning. We also point out challenges and suggest future research.
Enrique Guillermo Cordaro, Patricio Venegas-Aravena, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1785–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, 2021
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We developed a methodology that generates free externally disturbed magnetic variations in ground magnetometers close to the Chilean convergent margin. Spectral analysis (~ mHz) and magnetic anomalies increased prior to large Chilean earthquakes (Maule 2010, Mw 8.8; Iquique 2014, Mw 8.2; Illapel 2015, Mw 8.3). These findings relate to microcracks within the lithosphere due to stress state changes. This physical evidence should be thought of as a last stage of the earthquake preparation process.
Corey M. Scheip and Karl W. Wegmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1495–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1495-2021, 2021
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For many decades, natural disasters have been monitored by trained analysts using multiple satellite images to observe landscape change. This approach is incredibly useful, but our new tool, HazMapper, offers researchers and the scientifically curious public a web-accessible
cloud-based tool to perform similar analysis. We intend for the tool to both be used in scientific research and provide rapid response to global natural disasters like landslides, wildfires, and volcanic eruptions.
Matti Wiegmann, Jens Kersten, Hansi Senaratne, Martin Potthast, Friederike Klan, and Benno Stein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1431–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1431-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we study when social media is an adequate source to find metadata about incidents that cannot be acquired by traditional means. We identify six major use cases: impact assessment and verification of model predictions, narrative generation, recruiting citizen volunteers, supporting weakly institutionalized areas, narrowing surveillance areas, and reporting triggers for periodical surveillance.
Hui Liu, Ya Hao, Wenhao Zhang, Hanyue Zhang, Fei Gao, and Jinping Tong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1179-2021, 2021
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We trained a recurrent neural network model to classify microblogging posts related to urban waterlogging and establish an online monitoring system of urban waterlogging caused by flood disasters. We manually curated more than 4400 waterlogging posts to train the RNN model so that it can precisely identify waterlogging-related posts of Sina Weibo to timely determine urban waterlogging.
Roope Tervo, Ilona Láng, Alexander Jung, and Antti Mäkelä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 607–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-607-2021, 2021
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Predicting the number of power outages caused by extratropical storms is a key challenge for power grid operators. We introduce a novel method to predict the storm severity for the power grid employing ERA5 reanalysis data combined with a forest inventory. The storms are first identified from the data and then classified using several machine-learning methods. While there is plenty of room to improve, the results are already usable, with support vector classifier providing the best performance.
Michaela Wenner, Clément Hibert, Alec van Herwijnen, Lorenz Meier, and Fabian Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 339–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, 2021
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Mass movements constitute a risk to property and human life. In this study we use machine learning to automatically detect and classify slope failure events using ground vibrations. We explore the influence of non-ideal though commonly encountered conditions: poor network coverage, small number of events, and low signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach enables us to detect the occurrence of rare events of high interest in a large data set of more than a million windowed seismic signals.
Luiz Felipe Galizia, Thomas Curt, Renaud Barbero, and Marcos Rodrigues
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, 2021
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This paper aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of three remotely sensed fire datasets which have recently emerged as an important resource to improve our understanding of fire regimes. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed fire datasets can be used to proxy variations in fire activity on monthly and annual timescales; however, caution is advised when drawing information from smaller fires (< 100 ha) across the Mediterranean region.
Philippe Weyrich, Anna Scolobig, Florian Walther, and Anthony Patt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2811–2821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2811-2020, 2020
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
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The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Giuseppe Esposito, Ivan Marchesini, Alessandro Cesare Mondini, Paola Reichenbach, Mauro Rossi, and Simone Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2379–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2379-2020, 2020
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In this article, we present an automatic processing chain aimed to support the detection of landslides that induce sharp land cover changes. The chain exploits free software and spaceborne SAR data, allowing the systematic monitoring of wide mountainous regions exposed to mass movements. In the test site, we verified a general accordance between the spatial distribution of seismically induced landslides and the detected land cover changes, demonstrating its potential use in emergency management.
Mohammad Malakootian and Majid Nozari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2351–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2351-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2351-2020, 2020
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The present study estimated the Kerman–Baghin aquifer vulnerability using DRASTIC and composite DRASTIC (CDRASTIC) indices with the aid of geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The aquifer vulnerability maps indicated very similar results, identifying the north-west parts of the aquifer as areas with high to very high vulnerability. According to the results, parts of the studied aquifer have a high vulnerability and require protective measures.
Diana Contreras, Alondra Chamorro, and Sean Wilkinson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1663–1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1663-2020, 2020
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The socio-economic condition of the population determines their vulnerability to earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, soil erosion and land degradation. This condition is estimated mainly from population censuses. The lack to access to basic services, proximity to hazard zones, poverty and population density highly influence the vulnerability of communities. Mapping the location of this vulnerable population makes it possible to prevent and mitigate their risk.
Simona Colombelli, Francesco Carotenuto, Luca Elia, and Aldo Zollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-921-2020, 2020
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We developed a mobile app for Android devices which receives the alerts generated by a network-based early warning system, predicts the expected ground-shaking intensity and the available lead time at the user position, and provides customized messages to inform the user about the proper reaction to the alert. The app represents a powerful tool for informing in real time a wide audience of end users and stakeholders about the potential damaging shaking in the occurrence of an earthquake.
Richard Styron, Julio García-Pelaez, and Marco Pagani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 831–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, 2020
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The Caribbean and Central American region is both tectonically active and densely populated, leading to a large population that is exposed to earthquake hazards. Until now, no comprehensive fault data covering the region have been available. We present a new public fault database for Central America and the Caribbean that synthesizes published studies with new mapping from remote sensing to provide fault sources for the CCARA seismic hazard and risk analysis project and to aid future research.
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 21–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, 2020
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A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.
Quancai Xie, Qiang Ma, Jingfa Zhang, and Haiying Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2827–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2827-2019, 2019
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This paper evaluates a new method for modeling the site amplification factor. Through implementing this method and making simulations for different cases, we find that this method shows better performance than the previous method and JMA report. We better understand the advantages and disadvantages of this method, although there are some problems that need to be considered carefully and solved; it shows good potential to be used in future earthquake early warning systems.
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Acosta, T. J. S., Galisim, J. J., Tan, L. R., and Hernandez, J. Y.: Development of Empirical Wind Vulnerability Curves of School Buildings Damaged by the 2016 Typhoon Nina, Proced. Eng., 212, 395–402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.051, 2018.
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Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant...
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