Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Samuel Jonson Sutanto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Matthijs Janssen
Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Mariana Madruga de Brito
Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Maria del Pozo Garcia
Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Related authors
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Confidence Duku, Merve Gülveren, Rutger Dankers, and Spyridon Paparrizos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they occur together or successively. Our study shows that both events will become more frequent and severe across Europe, with even greater increases under high-emission scenarios. In Germany, drought-related economic losses may double, and heatwave deaths could rise ninefold by 2100. These findings stress the urgent need for climate action to reduce future impacts.
Hossein Maazallahi, Foteini Stavropoulou, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Antoon Visschedijk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Stijn Dellaert, Nataly Velandia Salinas, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Magdalena Ardelean, Marius Corbu, Andreea Calcan, Stephen A. Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents insights from airborne in situ measurements collected during the ROmanian Methane Emissions from Oil and gas (ROMEO) campaign supported by two models. Results reveal Romania's oil and gas methane emissions were significantly under-reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2019. A large underestimation was also found in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v7.0 for the study domain in the same year.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 281–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to analyze hydrological drought characteristics in the pan-European region based on past drought events from 1990 to 2017. Our study shows that the most severe droughts during our study period were observed from 1992 to 1997, where on average Europe experienced drought events, which lasted up to 4 months. Slow responding variables, such as groundwater, are better in showing extreme drought compared to fast responding variables such as runoff.
Jan Sodoge, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Geosci. Commun., 8, 191–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-191-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-191-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Thousands of geoscience abstracts are presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, but researchers often miss key insights by focusing on their own field. Using natural language processing (NLP), we help scientists find relevant research across disciplines. This approach breaks down boundaries, encouraging broader knowledge sharing and new interdisciplinary connections in the geosciences.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Confidence Duku, Merve Gülveren, Rutger Dankers, and Spyridon Paparrizos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they occur together or successively. Our study shows that both events will become more frequent and severe across Europe, with even greater increases under high-emission scenarios. In Germany, drought-related economic losses may double, and heatwave deaths could rise ninefold by 2100. These findings stress the urgent need for climate action to reduce future impacts.
Hossein Maazallahi, Foteini Stavropoulou, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Antoon Visschedijk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Stijn Dellaert, Nataly Velandia Salinas, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Magdalena Ardelean, Marius Corbu, Andreea Calcan, Stephen A. Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents insights from airborne in situ measurements collected during the ROmanian Methane Emissions from Oil and gas (ROMEO) campaign supported by two models. Results reveal Romania's oil and gas methane emissions were significantly under-reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2019. A large underestimation was also found in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v7.0 for the study domain in the same year.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Franciele Maria Vanelli, Masato Kobiyama, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2301–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a systematic literature review of socio-hydrological studies applied to natural hazards and disaster research. Results indicate that there is a wide range of understanding of what
socialmeans in socio-hydrology, and monodisciplinary studies prevail. We expect to encourage socio-hydrologists to investigate different disasters using a more integrative approach that combines natural and social sciences tools by involving stakeholders and broadening the use of mixed methods.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The review of flood vulnerability indices revealed that (1) temporal dynamic aspects were often disregarded, (2) coping and adaptive capacity indicators were frequently ignored, as obtaining these data demand time and effort, and (3) most studies neither applied sensitivity (90.5 %) or uncertainty analyses (96.8 %) nor validated the results (86.3 %). The study highlights the importance of addressing these gaps to produce scientifically rigorous and comparable research.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 281–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to analyze hydrological drought characteristics in the pan-European region based on past drought events from 1990 to 2017. Our study shows that the most severe droughts during our study period were observed from 1992 to 1997, where on average Europe experienced drought events, which lasted up to 4 months. Slow responding variables, such as groundwater, are better in showing extreme drought compared to fast responding variables such as runoff.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. a, b
Agrawal, N., Elliott, M., and Simonovic, S. P.: Risk and Resilience: A Case of Perception versus Reality in Flood Management, Water, 12, 1254, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051254, 2020. a
Allwood, J. M., Bosseti, V., Dubash, N. K., Gómez-Echeverri, L., and Stechow, v. C.: Glossary, in: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/ (last access: 26 October 2024), 2014. a
Almazán-Gómez, M., Duarte, R., Langarita, R., and Sánchez Chóliz, J.: Effects of water re-allocation in the Ebro River basin: A multiregional input-output and geographical analysis, J. Environ. Manage., 241, 645–657, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.042, 2019. a, b, c
Almazán-Gómez, M., Duarte, R., Langarita, R., and Sánchez Chóliz, J.: Water and socioeconomic dependencies: a multiregional model, Clean Technol. Envir., 23, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-020-01915-x, 2021. a
Arosio, M., Martina, M. L. V., and Figueiredo, R.: The whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systems, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-521-2020, 2020. a
Balasch, J. C., Pino, D., Ruiz-Bellet, J. L., Tuset, J., Barriendos, M., Castelltort, X., and Peña, J. C.: The extreme floods in the Ebro River basin since 1600 CE, Sci. Total Environ., 646, 645–660, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.325, 2019. a, b, c
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Martın, D. S., Koutsias, N., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling, Climatic Change, 120, 229–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3, 2013. a, b
Berg, P., Photiadou, C., Bartosova, A., Biermann, J., Capell, R., Chinyoka, S., Fahlesson, T., Franssen, W., Hundecha, Y., Isberg, K., Ludwig, F., Mook, R., Muzuusa, J., Nauta, L., Rosberg, J., Simonsson, L., Sjökvist, E., Thuresson, J., and van der Linden, E.: Hydrology related climate impact indicators from 1970 to 2100 derived from bias adjusted European climate projections, version 1, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.73237ad6, 2021. a
Berhanu, B., Melesse, A. M., and Seleshi, Y.: GIS-based hydrological zones and soil geo-database of Ethiopia, CATENA, 104, 21–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2012.12.007, 2013. a, b
Brouwer, R., Akter, S., Brander, L., and Haque, E.: Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in Bangladesh, Risk Anal., 27, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00884.x, 2007. a, b
Cai, T., Li, X., Ding, X., Wang, J., and Zhan, J.: Flood risk assessment based on hydrodynamic model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with GIS technique, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 35, 101077, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101077, 2019. a, b
Chen, Y.: Post settlement Changes in Natural Fire Regimes and Forest Structure, J. Sustain. Forest., 2, 153–181, https://doi.org/10.1300/J091v02n01_07, 1994. a
Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Fader, M., Garrabou, J., Gattuso, J-P., Iglesias, A., Lange, M. A., Lionello, P., Llasat, M. C., Paz, M., Peñuelas, J., Snoussi, M., Toreti, A., Tsimplis, M. N., and Xoplaki, E.: Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 972–980, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2, 2018. a, b
Dash, P. and Sar, J.: Identification and validation of potential flood hazard area using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and satellite data-derived water index, J. Flood Risk Manag., 13, e12620, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12620, 2020. a
da Silva, B. F., Jelic, A., López-Serna, R., Mozeto, A. A., Petrovic, M., and Barceló, D.: Occurrence and distribution of pharmaceuticals in surface water, suspended solids and sediments of the Ebro River basin, Spain, Chemosphere, 85, 1331–1339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2011.07.051, 2011. a, b
De Angeli, S., Malamud, B. D., Rossi, L., Taylor, F. E., Trasforini, E., and Rudari, R.: A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 73, 102829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829, 2022. a, b
de Brito, M. M.: Compound and cascading drought impacts do not happen by chance: A proposal to quantify their relationships, Sci. Total Environ., 778, 146236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146236, 2021. a
de Brito, M. M. and Evers, M.: Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1019–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1019-2016, 2016. a
de Brito, M. M., Almoradie, A., and Evers, M.: Spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in a MCDA-based flood vulnerability model, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 33, 1788–1806, https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2019.1599125, 2019. a
de Groot, W. J. and Flannigan, M. D.: Climate change and early warning systems for wildland fire, in: Reducing Disaster: Early warning systems for climate change, edited by: Zommers, Z. and Singh, A., Springer Netherlands, 127–151, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8598-3, 2014. a
de Ruiter, M. C., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M. J. C., Daniell, J. E., Gill, J. C., and Ward, P. J.: Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters, Earths Future, 8, e2019EF001425, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001425, 2020. a, b, c, d
Di Giuseppe, F., Rémy, S., Pappenberger, F., and Wetterhall, F.: Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to improve the estimation of fire emissions from fire radiative power (FRP) observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5359–5370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5359-2018, 2018. a, b
Ebi, K. L.: Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 11, 30–46, 2014. a
Erol, A. and Randhir, T. O.: Climatic change impacts on the ecohydrology of Mediterranean watersheds, Climatic Change, 114, 319–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0406-8, 2012. a, b, c
Field, R. D., Spessa, A. C., Aziz, N. A., Camia, A., Cantin, A., Carr, R., de Groot, W. J., Dowdy, A. J., Flannigan, M. D., Manomaiphiboon, K., Pappenberger, F., Tanpipat, V., and Wang, X.: Development of a Global Fire Weather Database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015, 2015. a
Filipe, A. F., Lawrence, J. E., and Bonada, N.: Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges, Hydrobiologia, 719, 331–351, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1244-4, 2013. a
Folador, L., Cislaghi, A., Vacchiano, G., and Masseroni, D.: Integrating Remote and In-Situ Data to Assess the Hydrological Response of a Post-Fire Watershed, Hydrology, 8, 169, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8040169, 2021. a
Foudi, S., Osés-Eraso, N., and Tamayo, I.: Integrated spatial flood risk assessment: The case of Zaragoza, Land Use Policy, 42, 278–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.002, 2015. a
Gain, A. K., Mojtahed, V., Biscaro, C., Balbi, S., and Giupponi, C.: An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City, Nat. Hazards, 79, 1499–1530, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1911-7, 2015. a
García-Ruiz, J. M., López-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lasanta–Martınez, T., and Beguerıa, S.: Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario, Earth-Sci. Rev., 105, 121–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.006, 2011. a, b
Ghosh, A. and Kar, S. K.: Application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk assessment: a case study in Malda district of West Bengal, India, Nat. Hazards, 94, 349–368, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3392-y, 2018. a
Gimeno-García, E., Andreu, V., and Rubio, J. L.: Influence of vegetation recovery on water erosion at short and medium-term after experimental fires in a Mediterranean shrubland, CATENA, 69, 150–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2006.05.003, 2007. a
Goepel, K. D.: Implementing the analytic hierarchy process as a standard method for multi-criteria decision making in corporate enterprises – new AHP excel template with multiple inputs, Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 23–26 June 2013, Kuala Lumpur, 1–10, https://bpmsg.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/ISAHP_2013-13.03.13.Goepel.pdf (last access: 26 October 2024), 2013. a
Grantham, T. E., Figueroa, R., and Prat, N.: Water management in mediterranean river basins: a comparison of management frameworks, physical impacts, and ecological responses, Hydrobiologia, 719, 451–482, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1289-4, 2013. a, b, c
Ha-Mim, N. M., Rahman, M. A., Hossain, M. Z., Fariha, J. N., and Rahaman, K. R.: Employing multi-criteria decision analysis and geospatial techniques to assess flood risks: A study of Barguna district in Bangladesh, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 77, 103081, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103081, 2022. a
He, B., Zhong, Z., Chen, D., Liu, J., Chen, Y., Miao, C., Ding, R., yuan, W., Guo, L., Huang, L., Hao, X., and Chen, A.: Lengthening dry spells intensify summer heatwaves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099647, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099647, 2022. a
Hoinka, K. P., Gaertner, M., and de Castro, M.: Iberian thermal lows in a changed climate, Q. J. Roy. Meteoro. Soc., 133, 1113–1126, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.78, 2007. a
Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes, Global Environ. Chang., 22, 823–835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004, 2012. a
Klijn, F., Kreibich, H., de Moel, H., and Penning-Rowsell, E.: Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualization, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl., 20, 845–864, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9638-z, 2015. a, b
Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis, Climatic Change, 75, 273–299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6338-4, 2006. a
Leopardi, M. and Scorzini, A.: Effects of wildfires on peak discharges in watersheds, Technical Reports, iForest, 8, 302–307, https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor1120-007, 2015. a
Lindner, M., Maroschek, M., Netherer, S., Kremer, A., Barbati, A., Garcia-Gonzalo, J., Seidl, R., Delzon, S., Corona, P., Kolström, M., Lexer, M. J., and Marchetti, M.: Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems, Forest Ecol. Manage., 259, 698–709, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.023, 2010. a
Llasat, M. C.: Floods evolution in the Mediterranean region in a context of climate and environmental change, Cuadernos de Investigacion Geografica, 47, 13–32, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4897, 2021. a
Martínez, J., Vega-Garcia, C., and Chuvieco, E.: Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain, J. Environ. Manage., 90, 1241–1252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.07.005, 2009. a
Mazdiyasni, O. and AghaKouchak, A.: Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 11484–11489, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422945112, 2015. a
McLennan, J. and Birch, A.: A potential crisis in wildfire emergency response capability? Australia's volunteer firefighters, Global Environ. Chang. Pt. B, 6, 101–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.003, 2005. a
Merz, B., Aerts, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Baldi, M., Becker, A., Bichet, A., Blöschl, G., Bouwer, L. M., Brauer, A., Cioffi, F., Delgado, J. M., Gocht, M., Guzzetti, F., Harrigan, S., Hirschboeck, K., Kilsby, C., Kron, W., Kwon, H.-H., Lall, U., Merz, R., Nissen, K., Salvatti, P., Swierczynski, T., Ulbrich, U., Viglione, A., Ward, P. J., Weiler, M., Wilhelm, B., and Nied, M.: Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014. a
Meyn, A., White, P., Buhk, C., and Jentsch, A.: Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: The emerging conceptual model, Prog. Phys. Geog., 31, 287–312, 2007. a
Moftakhari, H. and AghaKouchak, A.: Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 104018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab41a6, 2019. a
Mohanty, B. P., Kanwar, R. S., and Everts, C. J.: Comparison of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Measurement Methods for a Glacial-Till Soil, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 58, 672–677, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1994.03615995005800030006x, 1994. a
Moreira, L. L., de Brito, M. M., and Kobiyama, M.: Review article: A systematic review and future prospects of flood vulnerability indices, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Moreira, L. L., Vanelli, F. M., Schwamback, D., Kobiyama, M., and de Brito, M. M.: Sensitivity analysis of indicator weights for the construction of flood vulnerability indexes: A participatory approach, Front. Water, 5, 970469, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2023.970469, 2023. a
Mukherjee, F. and Singh, D.: Detecting flood prone areas in Harris County: a GIS based analysis, GeoJournal, 85, 647–663, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-09984-2, 2020. a
Ologunorisa, T. E.: An assessment of flood vulnerability zones in the Niger Delta, Nigeria, Int. J. Environ. Stud., 61, 31–38, https://doi.org/10.1080/0020723032000130061, 2004. a
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 169–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, 2017. a, b
Papathoma-Köhle, M., Thaler, T., and Fuchs, S.: An institutional approach to vulnerability: evidence from natural hazard management in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044056, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe88c, 2021. a
Pausas, J. G. and Keeley, J. E.: Wildfires and global change, Front. Ecol. Environ., 19, 387–395, https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2359, 2021. a
Petropoulos, G. P., Griffiths, H. M., and Kalivas, D. P.: Quantifying spatial and temporal vegetation recovery dynamics following a wildfire event in a Mediterranean landscape using EO data and GIS, Appl. Geogr., 50, 120–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.02.006, 2014. a
Pouyan, S., Pourghasemi, H. R., Bordbar, M., Rahmanian, S., and Clague, J. J.: A multi-hazard map-based flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Iran, Sci. Rep.-UK, 11, 14889, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94266-6, 2021. a
Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2153–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023, 2023. a
Rahmati, O., Zeinivand, H., and Besharat, M.: Flood hazard zoning in Yasooj region, Iran, using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis, Geomat. Nat. Haz. Risk, 7, 1000–1017, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1045043, 2016. a
Rentschler, J., Avner, P., Marconcini, M., Su, R., Strano, E., Vousdoukas, M., and Hallegatte, S.: Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985, Nature, 622, 87–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06468-9, 2023. a, b
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Samir, K. C., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T.,, Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a, b, c, d
Romaní, A. M., Sabater, S., and Muñoz, I.: The Physical Framework and Historic Human Influences in the Ebro River, in: The Ebro River Basin, edited by: Barceló, D. and Petrovic, M., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1—0, https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2010_66, 2011. a, b, c
Romero-Lankao, P., Hughes, S., Rosas-Huerta, A., Borquez, R., and Gnatz, D. M.: Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Responses: An Examination of Construction and Pathways in Mexico City and Santiago, Environ. Plann. C, 31, 785–805, https://doi.org/10.1068/c12173, 2013. a
Roy, S., Bose, A., and Chowdhury, I. R.: Flood risk assessment using geospatial data and multi-criteria decision approach: a study from historically active flood-prone region of Himalayan foothill, India, Arab. J. Geosci., 14, 999, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07324-8, 2021. a, b, c
Ruffault, J., Curt, T., Moron, V., Trigo, R. M., Mouillot, F., Koutsias, N., Pimont, F., Martin-StPaul, N., Barbero, R., Dupuy, J.-L., Russo, A., and Belhadj-Khedher, C.: Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 13790, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z, 2020. a
Saaroni, H., Ziv, B., Lempert, J., Gazit, Y., and Morin, E.: Prolonged dry spells in the Levant region: climatologic-synoptic analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 2223–2236, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4143, 2015. a
Saaty, T. L.: What is the Analytic Hierarchy Process? Mathematical Models for Decision Support, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83555-1_5, 1988. a
Seibert, J., McDonnell, J. J., and Woodsmith, R. D.: Effects of wildfire on catchment runoff response: a modelling approach to detect changes in snow-dominated forested catchments, Hydrol. Res., 41, 378–390, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.036, 2010. a, b, c
Shakesby, R. A.: Post-wildfire soil erosion in the Mediterranean: Review and future research directions, Earth-Sci. Rev., 105, 71–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.001, 2011. a, b
Statista: Gross domestic product (GDP) in current prices in Spain from 2008 to 2021 (in billion euros), https://www.statista.com/statistics/469491/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-spain/ (last access: 29 June 2023), 2022. a
Sutanto, S. J., Vitolo, C., Di Napoli, C., D'Andrea, M., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Heatwaves, droughts, and fires: Exploring compound and cascading dry hazards at the pan-European scale, Environ. Int., 134, 105276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105276, 2019. a
Sword-Daniels, V., Eriksen, C., Hudson-Doyle, E. E., Alaniz, R., Adler, C., Schenk, T., and Vallance, S.: Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards, J. Risk Res., 21, 290–307, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1200659, 2018. a
Tabari, H., Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., Thiery, W., and Willems, P.: Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change, Earths Future, 9, e2021EF002295, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002295, 2021. a, b
Terrado, M., Barceló, D., and Tauler, R.: Identification and distribution of contamination sources in the Ebro river basin by chemometrics modelling coupled to geographical information systems, Talanta, 70, 691–704, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.talanta.2006.05.041, 2006. a
Thanvisitthpon, N., Shrestha, S., Pal, I., Ninsawat, S., and Chaowiwat, W.: Assessment of flood adaptive capacity of urban areas in Thailand, Environ. Impact Asses., 81, 106363, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2019.106363, 2020. a
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships, Earth-Sci. Rev., 196, 102881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102881, 2019. a, b
Turco, M., Llasat, M.-C., von Hardenberg, J., and Provenzale, A.: Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment, Climatic Change, 125, 369–380, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3, 2014. a
Wu, J., Chen, X., and Lu, J.: Assessment of long and short-term flood risk using the multi-criteria analysis model with the AHP-Entropy method in Poyang Lake basin, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 75, 102968, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102968, 2022. a
Wu, M., Knorr, W., Thonicke, K., Schurgers, G., Camia, A., and Arneth, A.: Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 120, 2256–2272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003036, 2015. a
Zhang, D., Shi, X., Xu, H., Jing, Q., Pan, X., Liu, T., Wang, H., and Hou, H.: A GIS-based spatial multi-index model for flood risk assessment in the Yangtze River Basin, China, Environ. Impact Asses., 83, 106397, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2020.106397, 2020. a, b, c
Zio, E.: On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 53, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(96)00060-9, 1996. a
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint