Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Oct 2024
Research article |
| 28 Oct 2024
| 28 Oct 2024
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Rudolf Brázdil
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, 611 37, Czech Republic
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic
Dominika Faturová
Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, 611 37, Czech Republic
Monika Šulc Michalková
Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, 611 37, Czech Republic
Jan Řehoř
Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, 611 37, Czech Republic
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic
Martin Caletka
T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, Brno, 612 00, Czech Republic
Pavel Zahradníček
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, 616 67, Czech Republic
Related authors
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, and Laurent Litzenburger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2942, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The tax relief data connected with weather damage to farmers' yields from the Prácheň Region (southwestern Bohemia) in the period 1655–1827 CE were used to identify frequency, severity and impacts of damaging weather events presented in the context of other documentary data. Tax relief data used represent the very rarely used source of administrative records for historical-climatological research.
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, Dominik Collet, Petr Dobrovolný, and Heli Huhtamaa
Clim. Past, 21, 547–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Public granaries served as key infrastructure to improve food security in agrarian societies. Granary data from 15 domains at the Sušice region (southwestern Bohemia) in the period 1789–1849 CE are used here to identify years with bad and good grain harvests, which have been further analysed using documentary data and climatic reconstructions. The data used represent a new source of proxy data for historical–climatological research.
Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Andres Altwegg, Rudolf Brázdil, Laurent Litzenburger, Daniele Lorusso, and Thomas Pliemon
Clim. Past, 20, 1387–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This bottle of Riesling from the traditional Bassermann Jordan winery in Deidesheim (Germany) is a relic of the premium wine harvested in 1811. It was named “Comet Wine” after the bright comet that year. The study shows that wine quality can be used to infer summer weather conditions over the past 600 years. After rainy summers with cold winds, wines turned sour, while long periods of high pressure led to excellent qualities. Since 1990, only good wines have been produced due to rapid warming.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, and Petr Dobrovolný
Clim. Past, 20, 1017–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The newly developed series of wheat, rye, barley, and oats prices from Sušice (southwestern Bohemia) for the period 1725–1824 CE is used to demonstrate effects of weather, climate, socio-economic, and societal factors on their fluctuations, with particular attention paid to years with extremely high prices. Cold spring temperatures and wet conditions from winter to summer were reflected in very high grain prices.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Zahradník, Péter Szabó, Kateřina Chromá, Petr Dobrovolný, Lukáš Dolák, Miroslav Trnka, Jan Řehoř, and Silvie Suchánková
Clim. Past, 18, 2155–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bark beetle outbreaks are important disturbances to Norway spruce forests. Their meteorological and climatological triggers are analysed for the main oubreaks over the territory of the Czech Republic based on newly created series of such outbreaks, covering the 1781–2021 CE period. The paper demonstrates the shift from windstorms as the main meteorological triggers of past outbreaks to effects of high temperatures and droughts together with windstorms in past decades.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Jiří Mikšovský, Petr Pišoft, Miroslav Trnka, Martin Možný, and Jan Balek
Clim. Past, 18, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with 520-year series (1501–2020 CE) of temperature, precipitation, and four drought indices reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations for the Czech Lands. Basic features of their fluctuations, long-term trends, and periodicities as well as attribution to changes in external forcings and climate variability modes are analysed. Representativeness of Czech reconstructions at European scale is evaluated. The paper shows extreme character of past decades.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Jan Řehoř, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, and Petr Dobrovolný
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an analysis of fatalities attributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic during the 2000–2019 period based on our own database created from newspaper reports, on the database of the Czech Statistical Office, and on the database of the police of the Czech Republic as well as on their comparison. Despite some uncertainties, generally declining trends in the number of fatalities appear for the majority of weather variables. The structure of fatalities is described in detail.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
Olga Petrucci, Luigi Aceto, Cinzia Bianchi, Victoria Bigot, Rudolf Brázdil, Moshe Inbar, Abdullah Kahraman, Özgenur Kılıç, Vassiliki Kotroni, Maria Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Michele Mercuri, Katerina Papagiannaki, Susana Pereira, Jan Řehoř, Joan Rossello Geli, Paola Salvati, Freddy Vinet, and José Luis Zêzere
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-154, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
EUFF 2020 database (EUropean Flood Fatalities-FF) contains 2483 flood fatalities (1980–2018) occurred in 8 countries. Gender, age, activity of FF and dynamics of accidents were obtained from documentary sources. 64.8 % of FF were killed by floods killing less than 10 people. Males were more numerous than females due higher proportion of them driving and working outdoors. FF 30–64 years old died traveling to home/work, driving vehicles dragged by water. Elderly people were trapped indoor by flood.
Rudolf Brázdil, Gaston R. Demarée, Andrea Kiss, Petr Dobrovolný, Kateřina Chromá, Miroslav Trnka, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, Danuta Limanowka, and Sylvie Jourdain
Clim. Past, 15, 1861–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents analysis of the 1842 drought in Europe (except the Mediterranean) based on documentary data and instrumental records. First the meteorological background of this drought is shown (seasonal distribution of precipitation, annual variation of temperature, precipitation and drought indices, synoptic reasons) and effects of drought on water management, agriculture, and in society are described in detail with particular attention to human responses.
Rudolf Brázdil, Hubert Valášek, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Monika Bělínová, Adam Valík, and Pavel Zahradníček
Clim. Past, 15, 1205–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses a weather diary of the Reverend Šimon Hausner from Buchlovice in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, in the 1803–1831 period. From daily weather records, series of numbers of precipitation days, cloudiness, strong winds, fogs, and thunderstorms were created. These records were further used to interpret weighted temperature and precipitation indices. Records of Šimon Hausner represent an important contribution to the study of climate fluctuations on the central European scale.
Jiří Mikšovský, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, and Petr Pišoft
Clim. Past, 15, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To reveal sources of variability imprinted in central European drought records, regression and wavelet analysis were applied to 5 centuries of reconstructed data characterizing Czech climate. Mid- to long-term changes in temperature in the North Atlantic and North Pacific were identified as one of the potential sources of drought variations; transient colder and wetter episodes were linked to the effects of large volcanic eruptions.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Miroslav Trnka, Ladislava Řezníčková, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses extreme droughts of the pre-instrumental period (1501–1803) over the territory of the recent Czech Republic. In total, 16 droughts were selected for spring, summer and autumn each and 14 droughts for summer half-year (Apr–Sep). They are characterized by very low values of drought indices, high temperatures, low precipitation and by the influence of high-pressure situations. Selected extreme droughts are described in more detail. Effect of droughts on grain prices are studied.
Rudolf Brázdil, Andrea Kiss, Jürg Luterbacher, David J. Nash, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 14, 1915–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a worldwide state of the art of droughts fluctuations based on documentary data. It gives an overview of achievements related to different kinds of documentary evidence with their examples and an overview of papers presenting long-term drought chronologies over the individual continents, analysis of the most outstanding drought events, the influence of external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, and human impacts and responses. It recommends future research directions.
Petr Dobrovolný, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Martin Možný, Tomáš Kyncl, and Ulf Büntgen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-160, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Careful selection of available moisture-sensitive proxies resulted in a new reconstruction of short-term drought over the Czech Republic during the last 500 years. It consists of a synthesis of four different proxies and its high reconstruction skill demonstrates the clear advantage of a multi-proxy approach. The new chronology of Z-index shows that central Europe experienced the most severe 30-year late spring–early summer period of drought for the last 500 years.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Martin Možný, Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, and Miroslav Trnka
Clim. Past, 12, 1421–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1421-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1421-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
April–August temperature reconstruction for the Czech Lands based on grape-harvest dates in the 1499–2012 period constitutes a further important contribution to the better understanding of long-term spatiotemporal temperature variability in central Europe and includes the very long overlap period (1801–2012) used for calibration and verification, the consistent dominance of Pinot varieties through time, and the stability of vineyard management throughout the period reconstructed.
Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Hubert Valášek, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 12, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with climatic and human impacts of the strong Tambora (Indonesia) volcanic eruption in April 1815 over the Czech Lands territory based on analysis of documentary data and instrumental records. While climatic effects were related particularly to summers 1815 and 1816 (1816 is known as "a Year Without Summer"), quite important were societal impacts represented after bad harvest by steep increase in prices and shortages of food.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
G. Benito, R. Brázdil, J. Herget, and M. J. Machado
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3517–3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Historical hydrology combines documentary data with hydrological methods to lengthen flow records to the past centuries. We describe the methodological evolution of historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. Analysis of 45 case studies in Europe show that present flood magnitudes are not unusual in the context of the past, whereas flood frequency has decreased, although some rivers show a reactivation of rare floods over the last two decades.
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
R. Brázdil, K. Chromá, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, L. Dolák, Z. Stachoň, E. Soukalová, and P. Dobrovolný
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3873–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3873-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3873-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovolný, M. Trnka, O. Kotyza, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, P. Zahradníček, and P. Štěpánek
Clim. Past, 9, 1985–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, 2013
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, and Laurent Litzenburger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2942, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The tax relief data connected with weather damage to farmers' yields from the Prácheň Region (southwestern Bohemia) in the period 1655–1827 CE were used to identify frequency, severity and impacts of damaging weather events presented in the context of other documentary data. Tax relief data used represent the very rarely used source of administrative records for historical-climatological research.
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, Dominik Collet, Petr Dobrovolný, and Heli Huhtamaa
Clim. Past, 21, 547–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Public granaries served as key infrastructure to improve food security in agrarian societies. Granary data from 15 domains at the Sušice region (southwestern Bohemia) in the period 1789–1849 CE are used here to identify years with bad and good grain harvests, which have been further analysed using documentary data and climatic reconstructions. The data used represent a new source of proxy data for historical–climatological research.
Zdeněk Stachoň, Petr Kubíček, Lukáš Dolák, Radim Štampach, and Jan Řehoř
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 7, 163, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-7-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-7-163-2024, 2024
Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Andres Altwegg, Rudolf Brázdil, Laurent Litzenburger, Daniele Lorusso, and Thomas Pliemon
Clim. Past, 20, 1387–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This bottle of Riesling from the traditional Bassermann Jordan winery in Deidesheim (Germany) is a relic of the premium wine harvested in 1811. It was named “Comet Wine” after the bright comet that year. The study shows that wine quality can be used to infer summer weather conditions over the past 600 years. After rainy summers with cold winds, wines turned sour, while long periods of high pressure led to excellent qualities. Since 1990, only good wines have been produced due to rapid warming.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, and Petr Dobrovolný
Clim. Past, 20, 1017–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The newly developed series of wheat, rye, barley, and oats prices from Sušice (southwestern Bohemia) for the period 1725–1824 CE is used to demonstrate effects of weather, climate, socio-economic, and societal factors on their fluctuations, with particular attention paid to years with extremely high prices. Cold spring temperatures and wet conditions from winter to summer were reflected in very high grain prices.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Zahradník, Péter Szabó, Kateřina Chromá, Petr Dobrovolný, Lukáš Dolák, Miroslav Trnka, Jan Řehoř, and Silvie Suchánková
Clim. Past, 18, 2155–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bark beetle outbreaks are important disturbances to Norway spruce forests. Their meteorological and climatological triggers are analysed for the main oubreaks over the territory of the Czech Republic based on newly created series of such outbreaks, covering the 1781–2021 CE period. The paper demonstrates the shift from windstorms as the main meteorological triggers of past outbreaks to effects of high temperatures and droughts together with windstorms in past decades.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Jiří Mikšovský, Petr Pišoft, Miroslav Trnka, Martin Možný, and Jan Balek
Clim. Past, 18, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with 520-year series (1501–2020 CE) of temperature, precipitation, and four drought indices reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations for the Czech Lands. Basic features of their fluctuations, long-term trends, and periodicities as well as attribution to changes in external forcings and climate variability modes are analysed. Representativeness of Czech reconstructions at European scale is evaluated. The paper shows extreme character of past decades.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Jan Řehoř, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, and Petr Dobrovolný
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an analysis of fatalities attributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic during the 2000–2019 period based on our own database created from newspaper reports, on the database of the Czech Statistical Office, and on the database of the police of the Czech Republic as well as on their comparison. Despite some uncertainties, generally declining trends in the number of fatalities appear for the majority of weather variables. The structure of fatalities is described in detail.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
Olga Petrucci, Luigi Aceto, Cinzia Bianchi, Victoria Bigot, Rudolf Brázdil, Moshe Inbar, Abdullah Kahraman, Özgenur Kılıç, Vassiliki Kotroni, Maria Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Michele Mercuri, Katerina Papagiannaki, Susana Pereira, Jan Řehoř, Joan Rossello Geli, Paola Salvati, Freddy Vinet, and José Luis Zêzere
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-154, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
EUFF 2020 database (EUropean Flood Fatalities-FF) contains 2483 flood fatalities (1980–2018) occurred in 8 countries. Gender, age, activity of FF and dynamics of accidents were obtained from documentary sources. 64.8 % of FF were killed by floods killing less than 10 people. Males were more numerous than females due higher proportion of them driving and working outdoors. FF 30–64 years old died traveling to home/work, driving vehicles dragged by water. Elderly people were trapped indoor by flood.
Rudolf Brázdil, Gaston R. Demarée, Andrea Kiss, Petr Dobrovolný, Kateřina Chromá, Miroslav Trnka, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, Danuta Limanowka, and Sylvie Jourdain
Clim. Past, 15, 1861–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents analysis of the 1842 drought in Europe (except the Mediterranean) based on documentary data and instrumental records. First the meteorological background of this drought is shown (seasonal distribution of precipitation, annual variation of temperature, precipitation and drought indices, synoptic reasons) and effects of drought on water management, agriculture, and in society are described in detail with particular attention to human responses.
Rudolf Brázdil, Hubert Valášek, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Monika Bělínová, Adam Valík, and Pavel Zahradníček
Clim. Past, 15, 1205–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses a weather diary of the Reverend Šimon Hausner from Buchlovice in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, in the 1803–1831 period. From daily weather records, series of numbers of precipitation days, cloudiness, strong winds, fogs, and thunderstorms were created. These records were further used to interpret weighted temperature and precipitation indices. Records of Šimon Hausner represent an important contribution to the study of climate fluctuations on the central European scale.
Jiří Mikšovský, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, and Petr Pišoft
Clim. Past, 15, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To reveal sources of variability imprinted in central European drought records, regression and wavelet analysis were applied to 5 centuries of reconstructed data characterizing Czech climate. Mid- to long-term changes in temperature in the North Atlantic and North Pacific were identified as one of the potential sources of drought variations; transient colder and wetter episodes were linked to the effects of large volcanic eruptions.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Miroslav Trnka, Ladislava Řezníčková, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses extreme droughts of the pre-instrumental period (1501–1803) over the territory of the recent Czech Republic. In total, 16 droughts were selected for spring, summer and autumn each and 14 droughts for summer half-year (Apr–Sep). They are characterized by very low values of drought indices, high temperatures, low precipitation and by the influence of high-pressure situations. Selected extreme droughts are described in more detail. Effect of droughts on grain prices are studied.
Rudolf Brázdil, Andrea Kiss, Jürg Luterbacher, David J. Nash, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 14, 1915–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a worldwide state of the art of droughts fluctuations based on documentary data. It gives an overview of achievements related to different kinds of documentary evidence with their examples and an overview of papers presenting long-term drought chronologies over the individual continents, analysis of the most outstanding drought events, the influence of external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, and human impacts and responses. It recommends future research directions.
Petr Dobrovolný, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Martin Možný, Tomáš Kyncl, and Ulf Büntgen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-160, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Careful selection of available moisture-sensitive proxies resulted in a new reconstruction of short-term drought over the Czech Republic during the last 500 years. It consists of a synthesis of four different proxies and its high reconstruction skill demonstrates the clear advantage of a multi-proxy approach. The new chronology of Z-index shows that central Europe experienced the most severe 30-year late spring–early summer period of drought for the last 500 years.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Martin Možný, Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, and Miroslav Trnka
Clim. Past, 12, 1421–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1421-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1421-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
April–August temperature reconstruction for the Czech Lands based on grape-harvest dates in the 1499–2012 period constitutes a further important contribution to the better understanding of long-term spatiotemporal temperature variability in central Europe and includes the very long overlap period (1801–2012) used for calibration and verification, the consistent dominance of Pinot varieties through time, and the stability of vineyard management throughout the period reconstructed.
Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Hubert Valášek, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 12, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with climatic and human impacts of the strong Tambora (Indonesia) volcanic eruption in April 1815 over the Czech Lands territory based on analysis of documentary data and instrumental records. While climatic effects were related particularly to summers 1815 and 1816 (1816 is known as "a Year Without Summer"), quite important were societal impacts represented after bad harvest by steep increase in prices and shortages of food.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
G. Benito, R. Brázdil, J. Herget, and M. J. Machado
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3517–3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Historical hydrology combines documentary data with hydrological methods to lengthen flow records to the past centuries. We describe the methodological evolution of historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. Analysis of 45 case studies in Europe show that present flood magnitudes are not unusual in the context of the past, whereas flood frequency has decreased, although some rivers show a reactivation of rare floods over the last two decades.
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
R. Brázdil, K. Chromá, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, L. Dolák, Z. Stachoň, E. Soukalová, and P. Dobrovolný
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3873–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3873-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3873-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovolný, M. Trnka, O. Kotyza, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, P. Zahradníček, and P. Štěpánek
Clim. Past, 9, 1985–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Groundwater recharge in Brandenburg is declining – but why?
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Brief communication: Hydrological and hydraulic investigation of the extreme September 2024 flood on the Lamone River in Emilia-Romagna, Italy
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Improving Pluvial Flood Simulations with Multi-source DEM Super-Resolution
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Drought propagation in high-latitude catchments: Insights from a 60-Year Analysis Using Standardized Indices
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Evaluating Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration flood risk using hybrid method of AutoML and AHP
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Hail events in Germany, rare or frequent natural hazards?
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out and structural changes challenge water resources management of the German capital Berlin. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater and surface water. Analysing the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought helps to address water-related challenges and implement effective measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5 m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced by urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 monsoon in Pakistan's Swat River basin brought record rainfall, exceeding averages by 7–8%, triggering catastrophic debris flows and floods. Key factors include extreme rainfall, deforestation, and steep slopes. Fieldwork, remote sensing, and simulations highlight land degradation's role in intensifying floods. Recommendations include reforestation, early warning systems, and land use reforms to protect communities and reduce future risks
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Till Francke and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low ground water recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty of precipitation trends.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Alessia Ferrari, Giulia Passadore, Renato Vacondio, Luca Carniello, Mattia Pivato, Elena Crestani, Francesco Carraro, Francesca Aureli, Sara Carta, Francesca Stumpo, and Paolo Mignosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-216, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Between September 17 and 20, 2024, the Lamone River basin in Northern Italy was hit by extreme precipitations. This study adopts the hydrological model Rhyme and the hydrodynamic model PARFLOOD to simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed and the levee-breach-induced inundation affecting the Traversara village. The close match between the resulting flooded areas and the observed ones shows the capability of these numerical models to support the preparedness for at-risk populations.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilizing a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on factors like land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to impact weather patterns.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Yu Gao, Haipeng Lu, Yaru Zhang, Hengxu Jin, Shuai Wu, Yixuan Gao, and Shuliang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), where we determined flood risk assessment indices across different dimensions, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. We constructed a flood risk assessment model using AutoML and AHP to examine the spatial and temporal changes in flood risk in the region over the past 30 years (1990 to 2020), aiming to provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and resilience strategies in the YRDUA.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Tabea Wilke, Katharina Lengfeld, and Markus Schultze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hail in Germany is a natural hazard that is not in everyone's focus, even though it can cause great damage. In this study we focus on hail frequency, sizes and spatial distribution in Germany based on crowd sourcing and weather radar data. We compare different algorithms based on weather radar data with crowd sourced data and show the annual and diurnal cycle of hail in Germany.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Cited articles
Act No. 254/2001: Coll. Water Act and on Amendments to Certain Acts (Water Act), https://www.zakonyprolidi.cz/translation/cs/2001-254?langid=1033 (last access: 24 February 2024), 2001.
Ahmadalipour, A. and Moradkhani, H.: A data-driven analysis of flash flood hazard, fatalities, and damages over the CONUS during 1996–2017, J. Hydrol., 578, 124106, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124106, 2019.
Amponsah, W., Ayral, P.-A., Boudevillain, B., Bouvier, C., Braud, I., Brunet, P., Delrieu, G., Didon-Lescot, J.-F., Gaume, E., Lebouc, L., Marchi, L., Marra, F., Morin, E., Nord, G., Payrastre, O., Zoccatelli, D., and Borga, M.: Integrated high-resolution dataset of high-intensity European and Mediterranean flash floods, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1783–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1783-2018, 2018.
Ansari, T. A., Katpatal, Y. B., and Vasudeo, A. D.: Spatial evaluation of impacts of increase in impervious surface area on SCS-CN and run-off in Nagpur urban watersheds, India, Arab. J. Geosci., 9, 702, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2702-5, 2016.
Archer, D., O'Donnell, G., Lamb, R., Warren, S., and Fowler, H. J.: Historical flash floods in England: New regional chronologies and database, J. Flood Risk Manage., 12, e12526, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12526, 2019.
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Flash flood: definitions, characteristics, sources, and analysis, in: Flood Handbook: Principles and Applications, edited by: Eslamian, S. and Eslamian, F. A., CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 3–22, ISBN 9781138584938, 2016.
Archer, D. R., Parkin, G., and Fowler, H. J.: Assessing long term flash flooding frequency using historical information, Hydrol. Res., 48, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.031, 2016.
Bačová Mitková, V., Pekárová, P., Halmová, D., and Miklánek, P.: Reconstruction and post-event analysis of a flash flood in a small ungauged basin: a case study in Slovak territory, Nat. Hazards, 92, 741–760, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3222-2, 2018.
Balatka, B. and Sládek, J.: Povodeň na Jizeře v srpnu 1978 (Flood on the Jizera in August 1978), Geografie, 85, 278–292, https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie1980085040278, 1980.
Barredo, J. I.: Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005, Nat. Hazards, 42, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9065-2, 2007.
Bernáthová, I.: Zkáza a zmrtvýchvstání Heřmanic (Destruction and resurrection of Heřmanice), Český rozhlas, https://liberec.rozhlas.cz/10-let-od-nicivych-povodni-v-libereckem-kraji-8264415/1 (last access: 24 February 2024), 2020.
Bhaskar, N. R., Mark, N. F., and George, K. K.: Characterization of flash floods in Eastern Kentucky, J. Hydrol. Eng., 5, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:3(327), 2000.
Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F., and Sangati, M.: Hydrometeorological analysis of the 29 August 2003 flash flood in the Eastern Italian Alps, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1049–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM593.1, 2007.
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jakob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014.
Braud, I., Roux, H., Anquetin, S., Maubourguet, M. M., Manus, C., Viallet, P., and Dartus, D.: The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: analysis of associated hydrological processes, J. Hydrol., 394, 162–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.033, 2010.
Braud, I., Borga, M., Gourley, J., Hürlimann, M., Zappa, M., and Gallart, F.: Flash floods, hydro-geomorphic response and risk management, J. Hydrol., 541, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.005, 2016.
Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Benito, G.: Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 51, 739–764, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.739, 2006.
Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Benito, G., Demarée, G., Macdonald, N., and Roald, L. A.: Historical floods in Europe in the Past Millennium, in: Changes in Flood Risk in Europe, IAHS Special Publication 10, edited by: Kundzewicz, Z. W., IAHS Press and CRC Press/Balkema, Wallingford, 121–166, ISBN 978-1-907161-28-5, 2012.
Brázdil, R., Chromá, K., Dolák, L., Řehoř, J., Řezníčková, L., Zahradníček, P., and Dobrovolný, P.: Fatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, 2021.
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Mikšovský, J., Pišoft, P., Trnka, M., Možný, M., and Balek, J.: Documentary-based climate reconstructions in the Czech Lands 1501–2020 CE and their European context, Clim. Past, 18, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, 2022a.
Brázdil, R., Chromá, K., Zahradníček, P., Dobrovolný, P., Dolák, L., Řehoř, J., and Řezníčková, L.: Changes in weather-related fatalities in the Czech Republic during the 1961–2020 period, Atmosphere, 13, 688, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050688, 2022b.
Brázdil, R., Chromá, K., Dolák, L., Zahradníček, P., Řehoř, J., Dobrovolný, P., and Řezníčková, L.: The 100-year series of weather-related fatalities in the Czech Republic: interactions of climate, environment and society, Water, 15, 1965, https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101965, 2023.
Brázdil, R., Faturová, D., Šulc Michalková, M., Řehoř, J., Caletka, M., and Zahradníček, P.: Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period, Figshare [data set], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.26839933.v4, 2024.
Brumfield, B. and Mortensen, A.: 10 reported dead in Europe flooding, Cable News Network, A Warner Media Company, https://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/08/08/europe.flooding/index.html (last access: 24 February 2024), 2010.
Bryndal, T.: A method for identification of small Carpathian catchments more prone to flash flood generation, based on the example of south-eastern part of the Polish Carpathians, Carpath. J. Earth Environ. Sci., 9, 109–122, 2014.
Bryndal, T.: Local flash floods in Central Europe: A case study of Poland, Nor. Geogr. Tidsskr. – Norweg. J. Geogr., 69, 288–298, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2015.1072242, 2015.
Bryndal, T., Franczak, P., Kroczak, R., Cabaj, W., and Kołodziej, A.: The impact of extreme rainfall and flash floods on the flood risk management process and geomorphological changes in small Carpathian catchments: a case study of the Kasiniczanka river (Outer Carpathians, Poland), Nat. Hazards, 88, 95–120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2858-7, 2017.
Chamas, V. and Kakos, V.: Mimořádná průtrž mračen a povodeň na Jílovském potoce dne 1.7.1987 (The extraordinarily violent cloud-burst and the subsequent flood on the Brook Jílovský potok on July 1, 1987), Geografie, 93, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie1988093040265, 1988.
Costache, R. and Tien Bui, D.: Identification of areas prone to flash-flood phenomena using multiple-criteria decision-making, bivariate statistics, machine learning and their ensembles, Sci. Total Environ., 712, 136492, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136492, 2020.
Cyroň, J. and Kotrnec, J.: Protrhlo se nebe i země … Šardice 9.6.1970 (Sky and Earth Did Burst … Šardice, 9 June 1970), Obec Šardice, Šardice, 132 pp., ISBN 80-238-6128-X, 2000.
Daňhelka, J., Janál, P., and Šercl, P.: Možnosti predikce přívalových povodní v podmínkách České republiky (Possibilities of Prediction of Flash Floods in the Conditions of the Czech Republic), Sborník prací Českého hydrometeorologického ústavu 60, Praha, 50 pp., ISBN 978-80-87577-27-1, 2015.
Diakakis, M., Andreadakis, E., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Spyrou, N. I., Gogou, M. E., Deligiannakis, G., Katsetsiadou, N. K., Antoniadis, Z., Melaki, M., Georgakopoulos, A., Tsaprouni, K., Kalogiros, J., and Lekkas, E.: An integrated approach of ground and aerial observations in flash flood disaster investigations. The case of the 2017 Mandra flash flood in Greece, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 33, 290–309, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.015, 2019.
Diakakis, M., Papagiannaki, K., and Fouskaris, M.: The occurrence of catastrophic multiple-fatality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region, Water, 15, 119, https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010119, 2023.
Drbal, K., Ošlejšková, J., Dzuráková, M., and Dumbrovský, M.: Metodický návod pro identifikaci kritických bodů (Methodological manual for identification of critical points), https://www.povis.cz/mzp/KB_metodicky_navod_identifikace.pdf (last access: 24 February 2024), 2009.
Drbal, K., Dumbrovský, M., Muchová, Z., Sobotková, V., Štěpánková, P., and Šarapatka, B.: Mitigation of flood risks with the aid of the critical points method, Agronomy, 12, 1300, https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12061300, 2022.
Einfalt, T., Hatzfeld, F., Wagner, A., Castro, D., and Frerichs, S.: URBAS. Forecasting and managements of flash floods in urban areas, Urban Water J., 6, 369–374, https://doi.org/10.1080/15730620902934819, 2009.
Elleder, L., Munzar, J., Šírová, J., Ondráček, S., Krejčí, J., Lopaur, M., and Dragoun, Z.: Přívalová povodeň v létě 1714 na Českomoravské vrchovině – rekonstrukce katastrofy po 300 letech (Flash flood in 1714 in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands – reconstructing a catastrophe after 300 years), Meteorol. Zpr., 67, 161–173, 2014.
Faturov'a, D., Šulc Michalková, M., Geršlová, Z., Caletka, M., Máčka, Z., and Münster, P.: Physiographic parameters as a key player in flysch catchments affected by flash floods, Z. Geomorphol., https://doi.org/10.1127/zfg/2024/0809, in press, 2024.
Galík, P. and Libiger, M.: Přehrada proti vodě nepomohla (Dam did not help against water), https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/prehrada-proti-vode-nepomohla.A010720_180218_zlin_zpravy_boh (last access: 26 February 2024), 2001.
Gaume, E., Livet, M., Desbordes, M., and Villeneuve, J. P.: Hydrological analysis of the river Aude, France, flash flood on 12 and 13 November 1999, J. Hydrol., 286, 135–154, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.015, 2004.
Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A., Blaškovičová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A., Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia, J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis, A., Marchi, L., Matreata, S., Medina, V., Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I., Velasco, D., and Viglione, A.: A compilation of data on European flash floods, J. Hydrol., 367, 70–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.028, 2009.
Gourley, J. J., Hong, Y., Flamig, Z. L., Arthur, A., Clark, R., Calianno, M., Ruin, I., Ortel, T., Wieczorek, M. E., Kirstetter, P. E., Clark, E., and Krajewski, W. F.: A unified flash flood database across the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 799–805, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00198.1, 2013.
Grešková, A.: Analýza vybraných parametroch povodia z hl'adiska výskytu prívalových povodní (Analysis of selected basin parameters from the point of view of flash flood occurrence), Geogr. Čas., 57, 131–144, 2005.
Gruntfest, E. and Huber, C. J.: Toward a comprehensive national assessment of flash flooding in the United States, Episodes, 14, 26–34, 1991.
Guan, M., Sillanpää, N., and Koivusalo, H.: Storm run-off response to rainfall pattern, magnitude and surbanisation in a developing urban catchment, Hydrol. Process., 30, 543–557, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10624, 2016.
Halásová, O. and Brázdil, R.: Flash floods in Moravia and Silesia during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, Geografie, 125, 117–137, https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie2020125020117, 2020.
Hančarová, E., Metelka, L., Mrkvica, Z., Pavlík, J., Pozler, R., Šiftař, Z., Váchal, P. and Veselý, R.: Katastrofální povodeň v podhůří Orlických hor ve dnech 22. až 25.7.1998 (Catastrophic flood in foothills of the Orlické hory Mountains on July 22–25, 1998), Meteorol. Zpr., 52, 1–12, 1999.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., De Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Janský, B.: Mladotické hrazené jezero – geomorfologie sesuvných území (The Mladotice landslide lake – geomorphology of landslide areas), Acta Univ. Carol. – Geogr., 11, 3–18, 1976.
Janský, B.: Mladotické hrazené jezero – morfografické a hydrografické poměry (The Mladotice landslide lake – morphographic and hydrographic patterns), Acta Univ. Carol. – Geogr., 12, 31–46, 1977.
Jenkinson, A. F. and Collison, F. P.: An Initial Climatology of Gales over the North Sea, Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum 62, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, 1977.
Kaiser, M., Günnemann, S., and Disse, M.: Providing guidance on efficient flash flood documentation: an application based approach, J. Hydrol., 581, 124466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124466, 2020.
Kaiser, M., Günnemann, S., and Disse, M.: Spatiotemporal analysis of heavy rain-induced flood occurrences in Germany using a novel event database approach, J. Hydrol., 595, 125985, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125985, 2021.
Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, in: 4th Edn., Charles Griffin, London, 202 pp., ISBN 9780852641996, 1975.
Kubát, J.: Vyhodnocení přívalových povodní v červnu a červenci 2009 na území České republiky (Assessment of Flash Floods in June and July 2009 over the Territory of the Czech Republic), Český hydrometeorologický ústav, Praha, https://www.chmi.cz/files/portal/docs/hydro/povodne/pov09/doc/03.pdf (last access: 26 February 2024), 2009.
Kubát, J.: Vyhodnocení povodní v srpnu 2010. Souhrnná zpráva (Assessment of Floods in August 2010. Summary Report), Český hydrometeorologický ústav, Praha, https://www.chmi.cz/files/portal/docs/hydro/povodne/pov10s/pdf/zprava.pdf (last access: 26 February 2024), 2010.
Lipina, P., Řepka, M., Labajová, M., and Ostrožlík, T.: Přívalový déšť a kroupy na Krnovsku 31. května 2016 (Torrential rain and hail in the Krnov area on 31 May 2016), Meteorol. Zpr., 69, 190–191, 2016.
Llasat, M. C., Rigo, T., and Barriendos, M.: The `Montserrat-2000' flash-flood event: A comparison with the floods that have occurred in the Northeastern Iberian Peninsula since the 14th century, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 453–469, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.888, 2003.
Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Prat, M. A., Porcu, F., Price, C., Mugnai, A., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., Katsanos, D., Michaelides, S., Yair, Y., Savvidou, K., and Nivollaides, K.: High-impact floods and flash floods in Mediterranean countries: the flash preliminary database, Adv. Geosci., 23, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-23-47-2010, 2010.
Llasat, M. C., Marcos, R., Llasat-Botija, M., Gilabert, J., Turco, M., and Quintana-Seguí, P.: Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean, Atmos. Res., 149, 230–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.05.024, 2014.
Llasat, M. C., Marcos, R., Turco, M., Gilabert, J., and Llasat-Botija, M.: Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia, J. Hydrol., 541, 24–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.040, 2016.
Mann, H. B.: Non-parametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 163–171, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945.
Mann, H. B. and Whitney, D. R.: On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other, Ann. Math. Stat., 18, 50–60, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730491, 1947.
Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., and Gaume, E.: Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implication for flood risk management, J. Hydrol., 394, 118–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017, 2010.
Melesse, A. and Wang, X.: Landsat-based impervious surface mapping and storm run-off response modeling, in: Spring Meeting 2007, American Geophysical Union, abstract id. H22B-01, https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSM.H22B..01M/abstract (last access: 23 October 2024), 2007.
Meyer, J., Neuper, M., Mathias, L., Zehe, E., and Pfister, L.: Atmospheric conditions favouring extreme precipitation and flash floods in temperate regions of Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6163–6183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6163-2022, 2022.
Miller, J. D., Kim, H., Kjeldsen, T. R., Packman, J., Grebby, S., and Dearden, R.: Assessing the impact of surbanisation on storm run-off in a peri-urban catchment using historical change in impervious cover, J. Hydrol., 515, 59–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.011, 2014.
Minea, G.: Assessment of the flash flood potential of Bâsca River Catchment (Romania) based on physiographic factors, Open Geosci., 5, 344–353, https://doi.org/10.2478/s13533-012-0137-4, 2013.
Müller, M. and Kakos, V.: Extrémní konvekční bouře v Čechách 25.–26. května 1872 (The extreme convective storms in Bohemia on May 25–26, 1872), Meteorol. Zpr., 57, 69–77, 2004.
Munzar, J.: The flood in Carlsbad (Bohemia) on 9 May 1582: its causes, damages and response, in: Palaeofloods, Historical Data and Climatic Variability: Applications in Flood Risk Assessment, edited by: Thorndycraft, V. R., Benito, G., Barriendos, M., and Llasat, M. C., CSIC – Centro de Ciencias Medioambientales, Madrid, 136–142, ISBN 84-921958-2-7, 2003.
Palarz, A., James, P., Junghänel, T., Ostermöller, J., Walawender, E., and Deutschländer, T.: Radar-based heavy precipitation events in Germany and associated circulation patterns, Int. J. Climatol., 44, 196–216, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8323, 2024.
Papagiannaki, K., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Ruin, I., and Bezes, A.: Urban area response to flash flood-triggering rainfall, featuring human behavioral factors: The case of 22 October 2015 in Attica, Greece, Weather Clim. Soc., 9, 621–638, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0068.1, 2017.
Papagiannaki, K., Petrucci, O., Diakakis, M., Kotroni, V., Aceto, L., Bianchi, C., Brázdil, R., Grimalt Gelabert, M., Inbar, M., Kahraman, A., Kılıç, Ö., Krahn, A., Kreibich, H., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Macdonald, N., Madruga de Brito, M., Mercuri, M., Pereira, S., Řehoř, J., Rossello Geli, J., Salvati, P., Vinet, F., and Zêzere, J. L.: Developing a large-scale dataset of flood fatalities for territories in the Euro-Mediterranean region, FFEM-DB, Sci. Data, 9, 166, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01273-x, 2022.
Pekárová, P., Mészáros, J., Miklánek, P., Pekár, J., Siman, C., and Podolinská, J.: Post-flood field investigation of the June 2020 flash flood in the upper Muráň River basin and the catastrophic flash flood scenario, J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 69, 288–299, https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2021-0015, 2021.
Petrucci, O., Pasqua, A. A., and Polemio, M.: Flash flood occurrences since the 17th century in steep drainage basins in Southern Italy, Environ. Manage., 50, 807–818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9935-1, 2012.
Petrucci, O., Aceto, L., Bianchi, C., Bigot, V., Brázdil, R., Pereira, S., Kahraman, A., Kiliç, Ö., Kotroni, V., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Papagiannaki, K., Pasqua, A. A., Řehoř, J., Geli, J. R., Salvati, P., Vinet, F., Zêzere, J. L.: Flood fatalities in Europe, 1980–2018: variability, features, and lessons to learn, Water, 11, 1682, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081682, 2019.
Plánička, L.: Blesková povodeň v Janovicích (Flash flood in Janovice), https://www.obecjanovice.cz/bleskova-povoden-v-janovicich/d-6222, (last access: 30 October 2023), 2020.
Polišenský, A.: Povodeň na Dřevnici (Flood on the Dřevnice), Vodní hospodářství, 40, 13–18, 1990.
Raška, P. and Brázdil, R.: Participatory responses to historical flash floods and their relevance for current risk reduction: a view from a post-communist country, Area, 47, 166–178, https://doi.org/10.1111/area.12159, 2015.
Řehoř, J., Brázdil, R., Lhotka, O., Trnka, M., Balek, J., Štěpánek, P., and Zahradníček, P.: Precipitation in the Czech Republic in light of subjective and objective classifications of circulation types, Atmosphere, 12, 1536, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111536, 2021a.
Řehoř, J., Brázdil, R., Trnka, M., Lhotka, O., Balek, J., Možný, M., Štěpánek, P., Zahradníček, P., Mikulová, K., and Turňa, M.: Soil drought and circulation types in a longitudinal transect over central Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E2834–E2850, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6883, 2021b.
Ruiz-Bellet, J. L., Balasch, J. C., Tuset, J., Barriendos, M., Mazon, J., and Pino, D.: Historical, hydraulic, hydrological and meteorological reconstruction of 1874 Santa Tecla flash floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), J. Hydrol., 524, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.023, 2015.
Saharia, M., Kirstetter, P. E., Vergara, H., Gourley, J. J., Hong, Y., and Giroud, M.: Mapping flash flood severity in the United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 397–411, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0082.1, 2017.
Šálek, M. and Kaplická, M.: Silná bouře na Pelhřimovsku dne 23. května 2005 (Severe convective storm in the area of Pelhřimov on 23 May 2005), Meteorol. Zpr., 61, 113–118, 2008.
Schmied, P.: Blesková povodeň v Rychnově 14.6.2020 (Flash flood in Rychnov on 14 June 2020), https://www.krouna.cz/prakticke-info/aktuality/bleskova-povoden-v-rychnove-1462020-495cs.html (last access: 30 October 2023), 2020.
Schroeder, A. J., Gourley, J. J., Hardy, J., Henderson, J. J., Parhi, P., Rahmani, V., Reed, K. A., Schumacher, R. S., Smith, B. K., and Taraldsen, M. J.: The development of a flash flood severity index, J. Hydrol., 541, 523–532, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.005, 2016.
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389, https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934, 1968.
Šercl, P.: Vliv fyzicko-geografických faktorů na charakteristiky teoretických návrhových povodňových vln (The impact of the physio-geographical factors on the characteristics of theoretical design flood hydrographs), Sborník prací Českého hydrometeorologického ústavu 54, Praha, 88 pp., ISBN 978-80-86690-62-9, 2009.
Sercl, P., Pecha, M., Novak, P., Kyznarova, H., Ledvinka, O., Svoboda, V., and Danhelka, J.: Flash Flood Indicator, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, 52 pp., ISBN 978-80-7653-050-8, 2023.
Sharif, H. O., Hossain, M., Jackson, T., and Bin-Shafique, S.: Person-place-time analysis of vehicle fatalities caused by flash floods in Texas, Geomat. Nat. Hazards Risk, 3, 311–323, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2011.615343, 2012.
Shehata, M. and Mizunaga, H.: Flash flood risk assessment for Kyushu Island, Japan, Environ. Earth Sci., 77, 76, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7250-8, 2018.
Šimandl, P., Šercl, P., and Fryč, T.: Extrémní srážky a blesková povodeň na území Prahy dne 19.8.2007 (Extreme precipitation and flash flood on the Prague territory on 19 August 2007), Meteorol. Zpr., 60, 197–200, 2007.
Soukalová, E.: Příčinný déšť a povodně na Blanensku a Žďársku v červenci 2002 (Causal rainfall and floods in the Blansko and Žďár regions in July 2002), Meteorol. Zpr., 55, 141–144, 2002.
Soukalová, E., Březková, L., Budík, L., Kupsa, P., and Šálek, M.: Zpráva o povodni červen–červenec 2006 v Podhradí nad Dyjí (Report on the June–July 2006 flood in Podhradí nad Dyjí), Český hydrometeorologický ústav, Brno, https://www.chmi.cz/files/portal/docs/poboc/CB/pruvodce/povodnove_zpravy/br_2006_06.pdf (last access: 26 February 2024), 2006.
Spálovský, V., Ruman, S., and Trizna, M.: A comparison of the hydrodynamic characteristics of surface runoff generated by flash floods in geologically different areas of the Bohemian Massif (crystalline rocks) and the western Carpathians (flysch), Morav. Geogr. Rep., 30, 134–148, https://doi.org/10.2478/mgr-2022-0009, 2022.
Špitalar, M., Gourley, J. J., Lutoff, C., Kirstetter, P.-E., Brilly, M., and Carr, N.: Analysis of flash flood parameters and human impacts in the US from 2006 to 2012, J. Hydrol., 519, 863–870, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.004, 2014.
Sprinthall, R. C.: Basic Statistical Analysis, in: 9th Edn., Pearson Education, New York, NY, 672 pp., ISBN 978-0205052172, 2011.
Štěpánková, P., Dumbrovský, M., and Drbal, K.: The assessment of level of flash floods threat of urbanised areas, Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendel. Brun., 65, 519–526, https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201765020519, 2017.
Terti, G., Ruin, I., Anquetin, S., and Gourley, J. J.: A situation-based analysis of flash flood fatalities in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00276.1, 2017.
Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, in: Henri Theil's Contributions to Economics and Econometrics, Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics 23, edited by: Raj, B. and Koerts, J., Springer, Dordrecht, 345–381, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2546-8_20, 1992.
Thorndycraft, V. R., Barriendos, M., Benito, G., Rico, M., and Casas, A.: The catastrophic floods of AD 1617 in Catalonia (northeast Spain) and their climatic context, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 51, 899–912, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.899, 2006.
Trobec, T.: Frequency and seasonality of flash floods in Slovenia, Geogr. Pannonica, 21, 198–211, https://doi.org/10.5937/gp21-16074, 2017.
Vennari, C., Parise, M., Santangelo, N., and Santo, A.: A database on flash flood events in Campania, southern Italy, with an evaluation of their spatial and temporal distribution, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2485–2500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2485-2016, 2016.
Vinet, F., Boissier, L., and Saint-Martin, C.: Flashflood-related mortality in southern France: first results from a new database, in: 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016), E3S Web Conf., 7, 06001, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160706001, 2016.
Vinet, F., Cherel, J.-P., Weiss, K., Lewandowski, M., and Boissier, L.: Flood related mortality in the French Mediterranean region (1980–2020), LHB Hydrosci. J., 108, 2097022, https://doi.org/10.1080/27678490.2022.2097022, 2022.
Wei, L., Hubbart, J. A., and Zhou, H.: Variable streamflow contributions in nested subwatersheds of a US Midwestern urban watershed, Water Resour. Manage., 32, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1804-5, 2018.
Zahradníček, P., Brázdil, R., Štěpánek, P., and Trnka, M.: Reflections of global warming in trends of temperature characteristics in the Czech Republic, 1961–2019, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 1211–1229, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6791, 2021.
Zahradníček, P., Brázdil, R., Řehoř, J., Lhotka, O., Dobrovolný, P., Štěpánek, P., and Trnka, M.: Temperature extremes and circulation types in the Czech Republic, 1961–2020, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 4808–4829, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7505, 2022.
Zeleňáková, M., Gaňová, L., Purcz, P., Satrapa, L., Horský, M., and Harbul'áková, V. O.: Flood risk assessment from flash floods in Bodva River Basin, Slovakia, in: Dependability Engineering and Complex Systems, edited by: Zamojski, W., Mazurkiewicz, J., Sugier, J., Walkowiak, T., and Kacprzyk, J., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 583–593, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39639-2_51, 2016.
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint