Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Joshua Dorrington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Marta Wenta
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Federico Grazzini
Arpae-SIMC, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Meteorologisches Institut, Munich, Germany
Linus Magnusson
ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Frederic Vitart
ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Christian M. Grams
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Flughafen Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, and Frederic Vitart
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Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.
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The paper provides a detailed analysis of the causes and predictability of the May 2023 floods in Emiglia Romagna (Italy), which received considerable media coverage due to the extensive damage and loss of life associated.
The paper provides a detailed analysis of the causes and predictability of the May 2023 floods...
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still...
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