Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
Research article
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04 Sep 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Sep 2024

Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood

Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams

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Cited articles

Aemisegger, F. and Papritz, L.: A Climatology of Strong Large-Scale Ocean Evaporation Events. Part I: Identification, Global Distribution, and Associated Climate Conditions, J. Climate, 31, 7287–7312, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0591.1, 2018. a
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AST: Alluvione. Oltre 8,8 miliardi di euro: è la stima provvisoria dei danni, di cui 1,8 per interventi necessari a fare fronte all'emergenza, https://protezionecivile.regione.emilia-romagna.it/notizie/2023/giugno/alluvione-oltre-8-8-miliardi-di-euro-la-stima-provvisoria-dei-danni-di-cui-1-8-per-interventi-necessari-a-fare-fronte-emergenza (last access: 21 August 2024), 2023. a
Barnes, C., Faranda, D., Coppola, E., Grazzini, F., Zachariah, M., Lu, C., Kimutai, J., Pinto, I., Pereira, C. M., Sengupta, S., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Heinrich, D., and Otto, F.: Limited Net Role for Climate Change in Heavy Spring Rainfall in Emilia-Romagna, Imperial college london, Report, https://doi.org/10.25561/104550, 2023. a
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Executive editor
The paper provides a detailed analysis of the causes and predictability of the May 2023 floods in Emiglia Romagna (Italy), which received considerable media coverage due to the extensive damage and loss of life associated.
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
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