Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Joshua Dorrington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Marta Wenta
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Federico Grazzini
Arpae-SIMC, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Meteorologisches Institut, Munich, Germany
Linus Magnusson
ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Frederic Vitart
ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Christian M. Grams
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Flughafen Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A framework for generating catalogues of high-impact UNSEEN flood events E. Bianco et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100636
- Short-term recovery of inland and marine environments after the 2023 Emilia-Romagna flood R. Bentivogli et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03501-3
- Compost Tea Combined with Fungicides Modulates Grapevine Bacteriome and Metabolome to Suppress Downy Mildew G. Bonanomi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof11070527
- A Simplified Multi-Hazard Framework for the Protection of Coastal Salt Pond Systems D. Rapti & S. Valkaniotis https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13070400
- Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders F. Spuler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025
- Non‐Stationarities in Extreme Hourly Precipitation Over the Piave Basin, Northern Italy D. Healy et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.70051
- The catastrophic floods in 2008, 2010 and 2020 in western Ukraine: Hydrometeorological processes and the role of upper-level dynamics E. Agayar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026
- Regional and weather-type modulation of global warming–driven intensification of Italian precipitation extremes from multi-year storyline simulations M. Burderi et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea
- Exploring the driving factors of compound flood severity in coastal cities: a comprehensive analytical approach Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5541-2024
- Causes and Impacts of Flood Events in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in May 2023 L. Cremonini et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13111800
- Understanding biases and changes in European heavy precipitation using dynamical flow precursors J. Oldham-Dorrington et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-633-2026
- RaStEM: a new tool for the analysis of the effects of hydrogeological risk mitigation measures B. Dessi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06486-2
- Comparative study of the COSMO and ICON models performances over Italy: Key insights from the impactful year 2023 L. Loprieno et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108339
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A framework for generating catalogues of high-impact UNSEEN flood events E. Bianco et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100636
- Short-term recovery of inland and marine environments after the 2023 Emilia-Romagna flood R. Bentivogli et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03501-3
- Compost Tea Combined with Fungicides Modulates Grapevine Bacteriome and Metabolome to Suppress Downy Mildew G. Bonanomi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof11070527
- A Simplified Multi-Hazard Framework for the Protection of Coastal Salt Pond Systems D. Rapti & S. Valkaniotis https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13070400
- Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders F. Spuler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025
- Non‐Stationarities in Extreme Hourly Precipitation Over the Piave Basin, Northern Italy D. Healy et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.70051
- The catastrophic floods in 2008, 2010 and 2020 in western Ukraine: Hydrometeorological processes and the role of upper-level dynamics E. Agayar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026
- Regional and weather-type modulation of global warming–driven intensification of Italian precipitation extremes from multi-year storyline simulations M. Burderi et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea
- Exploring the driving factors of compound flood severity in coastal cities: a comprehensive analytical approach Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5541-2024
- Causes and Impacts of Flood Events in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in May 2023 L. Cremonini et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13111800
- Understanding biases and changes in European heavy precipitation using dynamical flow precursors J. Oldham-Dorrington et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-633-2026
- RaStEM: a new tool for the analysis of the effects of hydrogeological risk mitigation measures B. Dessi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06486-2
- Comparative study of the COSMO and ICON models performances over Italy: Key insights from the impactful year 2023 L. Loprieno et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108339
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
The paper provides a detailed analysis of the causes and predictability of the May 2023 floods in Emiglia Romagna (Italy), which received considerable media coverage due to the extensive damage and loss of life associated.
The paper provides a detailed analysis of the causes and predictability of the May 2023 floods...
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still...
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