Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
Research article
 | 
03 Sep 2024
Research article |  | 03 Sep 2024

Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
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