Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily  precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Ruff, Florian; Pfahl, Stephan

doi:10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

Research article

|

03 Sep 2024

Research article |

| 03 Sep 2024

Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl

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Total article views: 5,162 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2023	132	41	6	179
Nov 2023	22	6	1	29
Dec 2023	31	15	2	48
Jan 2024	40	10	3	53
Feb 2024	34	15	5	54
Mar 2024	28	16	0	44
Apr 2024	11	10	4	25
May 2024	13	10	4	27
Jun 2024	55	19	7	81
Jul 2024	38	28	10	76
Aug 2024	20	28	4	52
Sep 2024	251	60	14	325
Oct 2024	113	28	5	146
Nov 2024	113	25	8	146
Dec 2024	92	27	5	124
Jan 2025	53	53	5	111
Feb 2025	59	17	4	80
Mar 2025	51	29	8	88
Apr 2025	71	41	5	117
May 2025	81	34	6	121
Jun 2025	98	42	2	142
Jul 2025	74	41	3	118
Aug 2025	220	60	2	282
Sep 2025	518	44	12	574
Oct 2025	100	45	1	146
Nov 2025	139	83	4	226
Dec 2025	182	96	4	282
Jan 2026	317	60	21	398
Feb 2026	226	55	7	288
Mar 2026	141	67	9	217
Apr 2026	121	46	7	174
May 2026	160	30	0	190
Jun 2026	33	15	5	53
Jul 2026	50	57	3	110
Aug 2026	17	13	6	36

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 Oct 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2023	132	41	6	179
Nov 2023	22	6	1	29
Dec 2023	31	15	2	48
Jan 2024	40	10	3	53
Feb 2024	34	15	5	54
Mar 2024	28	16	0	44
Apr 2024	11	10	4	25
May 2024	13	10	4	27
Jun 2024	55	19	7	81
Jul 2024	38	28	10	76
Aug 2024	20	28	4	52
Sep 2024	251	60	14	325
Oct 2024	113	28	5	146
Nov 2024	113	25	8	146
Dec 2024	92	27	5	124
Jan 2025	53	53	5	111
Feb 2025	59	17	4	80
Mar 2025	51	29	8	88
Apr 2025	71	41	5	117
May 2025	81	34	6	121
Jun 2025	98	42	2	142
Jul 2025	74	41	3	118
Aug 2025	220	60	2	282
Sep 2025	518	44	12	574
Oct 2025	100	45	1	146
Nov 2025	139	83	4	226
Dec 2025	182	96	4	282
Jan 2026	317	60	21	398
Feb 2026	226	55	7	288
Mar 2026	141	67	9	217
Apr 2026	121	46	7	174
May 2026	160	30	0	190
Jun 2026	33	15	5	53
Jul 2026	50	57	3	110
Aug 2026	17	13	6	36

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Short summary

High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.