Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily  precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Ruff, Florian; Pfahl, Stephan

doi:10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

Research article

|

03 Sep 2024

Research article |

| 03 Sep 2024

Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl

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Total article views: 5,384 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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HTML: 3,837
PDF: 1,314
XML: 233
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BibTeX: 248
EndNote: 366

Views and downloads (calculated since 23 Oct 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2023	132	41	6	179
Nov 2023	22	6	1	29
Dec 2023	31	15	2	48
Jan 2024	40	10	3	53
Feb 2024	34	15	5	54
Mar 2024	28	16	0	44
Apr 2024	11	10	4	25
May 2024	13	10	4	27
Jun 2024	55	19	7	81
Jul 2024	38	28	10	76
Aug 2024	20	28	4	52
Sep 2024	251	60	14	325
Oct 2024	113	28	5	146
Nov 2024	113	25	8	146
Dec 2024	92	27	5	124
Jan 2025	53	53	5	111
Feb 2025	59	17	4	80
Mar 2025	51	29	8	88
Apr 2025	71	41	5	117
May 2025	81	34	6	121
Jun 2025	98	42	2	142
Jul 2025	74	41	3	118
Aug 2025	220	60	2	282
Sep 2025	518	44	12	574
Oct 2025	100	45	1	146
Nov 2025	139	83	4	226
Dec 2025	182	96	4	282
Jan 2026	317	60	21	398
Feb 2026	226	55	7	288
Mar 2026	141	67	9	217
Apr 2026	121	46	7	174
May 2026	160	30	0	190
Jun 2026	33	15	5	53
Jul 2026	50	57	3	110
Aug 2026	50	29	12	91
Sep 2026	100	32	35	167

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 Oct 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2023	132	41	6	179
Nov 2023	22	6	1	29
Dec 2023	31	15	2	48
Jan 2024	40	10	3	53
Feb 2024	34	15	5	54
Mar 2024	28	16	0	44
Apr 2024	11	10	4	25
May 2024	13	10	4	27
Jun 2024	55	19	7	81
Jul 2024	38	28	10	76
Aug 2024	20	28	4	52
Sep 2024	251	60	14	325
Oct 2024	113	28	5	146
Nov 2024	113	25	8	146
Dec 2024	92	27	5	124
Jan 2025	53	53	5	111
Feb 2025	59	17	4	80
Mar 2025	51	29	8	88
Apr 2025	71	41	5	117
May 2025	81	34	6	121
Jun 2025	98	42	2	142
Jul 2025	74	41	3	118
Aug 2025	220	60	2	282
Sep 2025	518	44	12	574
Oct 2025	100	45	1	146
Nov 2025	139	83	4	226
Dec 2025	182	96	4	282
Jan 2026	317	60	21	398
Feb 2026	226	55	7	288
Mar 2026	141	67	9	217
Apr 2026	121	46	7	174
May 2026	160	30	0	190
Jun 2026	33	15	5	53
Jul 2026	50	57	3	110
Aug 2026	50	29	12	91
Sep 2026	100	32	35	167

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Short summary

High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.