Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily  precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Ruff, Florian; Pfahl, Stephan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

Research article

|

03 Sep 2024

Research article |

| 03 Sep 2024

Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data

Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024-supplement

Data sets

Archive Catalogue - Control forecast ECMWF https://apps.ecmwf.int/archive-catalogue/?type=cf&class=od&stream=enfo&expver=1

Archive Catalogue - Perturbed forecast ECMWF https://apps.ecmwf.int/archive-catalogue/?type=pf&class=od&stream=enfo&expver=1

Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network based on all station data v1-2019 S. Contractor et al. https://doi.org/10.25914/5ca4c380b0d44

Index of /products/CHIRPS-2.0/global_daily/netcdf/p25 C. C. Funk et al. https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS-2.0/global_daily/netcdf/p25/

Index of /data/precipitation-persiann/access H. Ashouri et al. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/precipitation-persiann/access/

Global estimates of 100-year return values and confidence intervals of daily precipitation for different data set F. Ruff and S. Pfahl https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-39650

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Short summary

High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.