Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2024
| 31 Jan 2024
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Benjamin Fersch
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Harald Kunstmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Institute of Geography and Center for Climate Resilience, University of Augsburg, Alter Postweg 118, 86159 Augsburg, Germany
Related authors
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather impacts, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep learning based modelling framework to improve 30-day rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and outputs from physical models. With the forecast error reduced by up to 32%, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster preparedness.
Maximilian Graf, Andreas Wagner, Julius Polz, Llorenç Lliso, José Alberto Lahuerta, Harald Kunstmann, and Christian Chwala
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2165–2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can be used for rainfall retrieval. The detection of rainy periods in their attenuation time series is a crucial processing step. We investigate the usage of rainfall data from MSG SEVIRI for this task, compare this approach with existing methods, and introduce a novel combined approach. The results show certain advantages for SEVIRI-based methods, particularly for CMLs where existing methods perform poorly. Our novel combination yields the best performance.
Patrick Olschewski, Qi Sun, Jianhui Wei, Yu Li, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Joël Arnault, Tanja C. Schober, Brian Böker, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-95, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
There are indications that typhoon intensities may increase under global warming. However, further research on these projections and their uncertainties is necessary. We study changes in typhoon intensity under SSP5-8.5 for seven events affecting the Pearl River Delta using Pseudo-Global Warming and a storyline approach based on 16 CMIP6 models. Results show intensified wind speed, sea level pressure drop and precipitation levels for six events with amplified increases for individual storylines.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Mohsen Soltani, Bert Hamelers, Abbas Mofidi, Christopher G. Fletcher, Arie Staal, Stefan C. Dekker, Patrick Laux, Joel Arnault, Harald Kunstmann, Ties van der Hoeven, and Maarten Lanters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 931–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal changes and spatial patterns in precipitation events do not show a homogeneous tendency across the Sinai Peninsula. Mediterranean cyclones accompanied by the Red Sea and Persian troughs are responsible for the majority of Sinai's extreme rainfall events. Cyclone tracking captures 156 cyclones (rainfall ≥10 mm d-1) either formed within or transferred to the Mediterranean basin precipitating over Sinai.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Benjamin Fersch, Andreas Wagner, Bettina Kamm, Endrit Shehaj, Andreas Schenk, Peng Yuan, Alain Geiger, Gregor Moeller, Bernhard Heck, Stefan Hinz, Hansjörg Kutterer, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5287–5307, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a comprehensive multi-disciplinary dataset for tropospheric water vapor was developed. Geodetic, photogrammetric, and atmospheric modeling and data fusion techniques were used to obtain maps of water vapor in a high spatial and temporal resolution. It could be shown that regional weather simulations for different seasons benefit from assimilating these maps and that the combination of the different observation techniques led to positive synergies.
Maik Heistermann, Heye Bogena, Till Francke, Andreas Güntner, Jannis Jakobi, Daniel Rasche, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Benjamin Fersch, Jannis Groh, Amol Patil, Thomas Pütz, Marvin Reich, Steffen Zacharias, Carmen Zengerle, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2501–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) to measure spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns during a 2-month campaign in the Wüstebach headwater catchment in Germany. Stationary, mobile, and airborne CRNS technology monitored the root-zone water dynamics as well as spatial heterogeneity in the 0.4 km2 area. The 15 CRNS stations were supported by a hydrogravimeter, biomass sampling, and a wireless soil sensor network to facilitate holistic hydrological analysis.
Heye Reemt Bogena, Martin Schrön, Jannis Jakobi, Patrizia Ney, Steffen Zacharias, Mie Andreasen, Roland Baatz, David Boorman, Mustafa Berk Duygu, Miguel Angel Eguibar-Galán, Benjamin Fersch, Till Franke, Josie Geris, María González Sanchis, Yann Kerr, Tobias Korf, Zalalem Mengistu, Arnaud Mialon, Paolo Nasta, Jerzy Nitychoruk, Vassilios Pisinaras, Daniel Rasche, Rafael Rosolem, Hami Said, Paul Schattan, Marek Zreda, Stefan Achleitner, Eduardo Albentosa-Hernández, Zuhal Akyürek, Theresa Blume, Antonio del Campo, Davide Canone, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, John G. Evans, Stefano Ferraris, Félix Frances, Davide Gisolo, Andreas Güntner, Frank Herrmann, Joost Iwema, Karsten H. Jensen, Harald Kunstmann, Antonio Lidón, Majken Caroline Looms, Sascha Oswald, Andreas Panagopoulos, Amol Patil, Daniel Power, Corinna Rebmann, Nunzio Romano, Lena Scheiffele, Sonia Seneviratne, Georg Weltin, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring of increasingly frequent droughts is a prerequisite for climate adaptation strategies. This data paper presents long-term soil moisture measurements recorded by 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) operated by 24 institutions and distributed across major climate zones in Europe. Data processing followed harmonized protocols and state-of-the-art methods to generate consistent and comparable soil moisture products and to facilitate continental-scale analysis of hydrological extremes.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Christof Lorenz, Tanja C. Portele, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2701–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Semi-arid regions depend on the freshwater resources from the rainy seasons as they are crucial for ensuring security for drinking water, food and electricity. Thus, forecasting the conditions for the next season is crucial for proactive water management. We hence present a seasonal forecast product for four semi-arid domains in Iran, Brazil, Sudan/Ethiopia and Ecuador/Peru. It provides a benchmark for seasonal forecasts and, finally, a crucial contribution for improved disaster preparedness.
Benjamin Fersch, Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Jannis Jakobi, Gabriele Baroni, Theresa Blume, Heye Bogena, Christian Budach, Tobias Gränzig, Michael Förster, Andreas Güntner, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Mandy Kasner, Markus Köhli, Birgit Kleinschmit, Harald Kunstmann, Amol Patil, Daniel Rasche, Lena Scheiffele, Ulrich Schmidt, Sandra Szulc-Seyfried, Jannis Weimar, Steffen Zacharias, Marek Zreda, Bernd Heber, Ralf Kiese, Vladimir Mares, Hannes Mollenhauer, Ingo Völksch, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2289–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, 2020
Julius Polz, Christian Chwala, Maximilian Graf, and Harald Kunstmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3835–3853, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3835-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave link (CML) networks can be used to estimate path-averaged rain rates. This study evaluates the ability of convolutional neural networks to distinguish between wet and dry periods in CML time series data and the ability to transfer this detection skill to sensors not used for training. Our data set consists of several months of data from 3904 CMLs covering all of Germany. Compared to a previously used detection method, we could show a significant increase in performance.
Maximilian Graf, Christian Chwala, Julius Polz, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2931–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2931-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave links (CMLs), which form large parts of the backhaul from the ubiquitous cellular communication networks, can be used to estimate path-integrated rainfall rates. This study presents the processing and evaluation of the largest CML data set to date, covering the whole of Germany with almost 4000 CMLs. The CML-derived rainfall information compares well to a standard precipitation data set from the German Meteorological Service, which combines radar and rain gauge data.
Benjamin Fersch, Alfonso Senatore, Bianca Adler, Joël Arnault, Matthias Mauder, Katrin Schneider, Ingo Völksch, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, 2020
Rebecca Mott, Andreas Wolf, Maximilian Kehl, Harald Kunstmann, Michael Warscher, and Thomas Grünewald
The Cryosphere, 13, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1247-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The mass balance of very small glaciers is often governed by anomalous snow accumulation, winter precipitation being multiplied by snow redistribution processes, or by suppressed snow ablation driven by micrometeorological effects lowering net radiation and turbulent heat exchange. In this study we discuss the relative contribution of snow accumulation (avalanches) versus micrometeorology (katabatic flow) on the mass balance of the lowest perennial ice field of the Alps, the Ice Chapel.
Dominikus Heinzeller, Diarra Dieng, Gerhard Smiatek, Christiana Olusegun, Cornelia Klein, Ilse Hamann, Seyni Salack, Jan Bliefernicht, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 815–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-815-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-815-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change and population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change simulations is provided to support adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the concept and design of the simulations and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data.
Caroline Brosy, Karina Krampf, Matthias Zeeman, Benjamin Wolf, Wolfgang Junkermann, Klaus Schäfer, Stefan Emeis, and Harald Kunstmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2773–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2773-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical and horizontal sounding of the planetary boundary layer can be complemented by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Utilizing a multicopter-type UAV spatial sampling of air and simultaneously sensing of meteorological variables is possible for the study of surface exchange processes. During stable atmospheric conditions, vertical methane gradients of about 300 ppb were found. This approach extended the vertical profile height of existing tower-based infrastructure by a factor of five.
Jan Schmieder, Florian Hanzer, Thomas Marke, Jakob Garvelmann, Michael Warscher, Harald Kunstmann, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 5015–5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5015-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5015-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel research on the spatiotemporal variability of snowmelt isotopic content in a high-elevation catchment with complex terrain
to improve the isotope-based hydrograph separation method. A modelling approach was used to weight the plot-scale snowmelt isotopic content
with melt rates for the north- and south-facing slope. The investigations showed that it is important to sample at least north- and south-facing slopes,
because of distinct isotopic differences between both slopes.
Bernd Schalge, Jehan Rihani, Gabriele Baroni, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Vincent Haefliger, Barbara Haese, Pablo Saavedra, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Felix Ament, Sabine Attinger, Olaf A. Cirpka, Stefan Kollet, Harald Kunstmann, Harry Vereecken, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we show how we used a coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface model at highest possible resolution to create a testbed for data assimilation. The model was able to capture all important processes and interactions between the compartments as well as showing realistic statistical behavior. This proves that using a model as a virtual truth is possible and it will enable us to develop data assimilation methods where states and parameters are updated across compartment.
Christian Chwala, Felix Keis, and Harald Kunstmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 991–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-991-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-991-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave link (CML) networks, like they are used as backbone for the cell phone network, can be used to derive rainfall information. However, data availability is limited due to the lack of suitable data acquisition systems. We have developed and currently operate a custom data acquisition system for CML networks that is able to acquire the required data for a large number of CMLs in real time. This system is the basis for a future countrywide rainfall product derived from CML data.
D. Heinzeller, M. G. Duda, and H. Kunstmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 77–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-77-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-77-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present an in-depth evaluation of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for medium-size meshes on several HPCs. We also demonstrate the model performance in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3km mesh with 65,536,002 horizontal grid cells on up to 458,752 cores.
F. Alshawaf, B. Fersch, S. Hinz, H. Kunstmann, M. Mayer, and F. J. Meyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4747–4764, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4747-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4747-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at deriving high spatially resolved maps of atmospheric water vapor by the fusion data from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The data fusion approach exploits the redundant and complementary spatial properties of all data sets to provide more accurate and high-resolution maps of water vapor. The comparison with maps from MERIS shows rms values of less than 1 mm.
G. Mao, S. Vogl, P. Laux, S. Wagner, and H. Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1787–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1787-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1787-2015, 2015
A. Wagner, J. Seltmann, and H. Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-1765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-1765-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
R. J. van der Ent, O. A. Tuinenburg, H.-R. Knoche, H. Kunstmann, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4869–4884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4869-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Cited articles
Aich, V., Akhundzadah, N., Knuerr, A., Khoshbeen, A., Hattermann, F., Paeth, H., Scanlon, A., and Paton, E.: Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations, Climate, 2, 38, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020038, 2017.
Alexandru, A., de Elia, R., and Laprise, R.: Internal Variability in Regional Climate Downscaling at the Seasonal Scale, Mon. Weather Rev., 9, 3221–3238, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3456.1, 2007.
Ballester, J., Rodó, X., and Giorgi, F.: Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming, Clim. Dynam., 7–8, 1191–1205, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0641-5, 2010.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 6026, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Bastos, A., Gouveia, C. M., Trigo, R. M., and Running, S. W.: Analysing the spatio-temporal impacts of the 2003 and 2010 extreme heatwaves on plant productivity in Europe, Biogeosciences, 11, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, 2014.
Becker, F. N., Fink, A. H., Bissolli, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of historical European heat waves (1979–2019), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, e1120, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1120, 2022.
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, S1, 71–95, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z, 2007.
Braithwaite, R. J., Raper, S. C., and Candela, R.: Recent changes (1991–2010) in glacier mass balance and air temperature in the European Alps, Ann. Glaciol., 63, 139–146, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG63A285, 2013.
Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Lima, D. C. A., and Miranda, P. M. A.: Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 129–157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4124-4, 2019.
Careto, J. A. M., Soares, P. M. M., Cardoso, R. M., Herrera, S., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Added value of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution downscaling over the Iberian Peninsula revisited – Part 2: Max and min temperature, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2653–2671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2653-2022, 2022.
Caya, D. and Biner, S.: Internal variability of RCM simulations over an annual cycle, Clim. Dynam., 1, 33–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0360-2, 2004.
Christensen, J. H. and Christensen, O. B.: A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century, Climatic Change, S1, 7–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7, 2007.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., Noblet, N. de, Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 7058, 529–533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972, 2005.
Coppola, E., Raffaele, F., Giorgi, F., Giuliani, G., Xuejie, G., Ciarlo, J. M., Sines, T. R., Torres-Alavez, J. A., Das, S., Di Sante, F., Pichelli, E., Glazer, R., Müller, S. K., Abba Omar, S., Ashfaq, M., Bukovsky, M., Im, E.-S., Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Remedio, A., Remke, T., Kriegsmann, A., Bülow, K., Weber, T., Buntemeyer, L., Sieck, K., and Rechid, D.: Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 5–6, 1293–1383, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z, 2021.
Coumou, D. and Rahmstorf, S.: A decade of weather extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 491–496, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1452, 2012.
Davin, E. L., Maisonnave, E., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Is land surface processes representation a possible weak link in current Regional Climate Models?, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 74027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074027, 2016.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., Rosnay, P. de, Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 656, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., Weissenfluh, H. von, Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M., and Wanner, H.: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability, Clim. Dynam., 2–3, 251–275, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0233-1, 2007.
Demirel, M. C., Mai, J., Mendiguren, G., Koch, J., Samaniego, L., and Stisen, S.: Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1299–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1299-2018, 2018.
Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Ashfaq, M.: Intensification of hot extremes in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L15701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043888, 2010.
Di Luca, A., Elía, R. de, and Laprise, R.: Potential for added value in temperature simulated by high-resolution nested RCMs in present climate and in the climate change signal, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 443–464, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1384-2, 2013.
Dosio, A.: Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 493–519, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5, 2017.
ECA&D: European Climate Assessment & Dataset project, https://www.ecad.eu/ (last access: 15 November 2023), 2023.
EURO-CORDEX: EURO-CORDEX – Coordinated Downscaling Experiment – European Domain, https://www.euro-cordex.net/ (last access: 15 November 2023), 2023.
Feron, S., Cordero, R. R., Damiani, A., Llanillo, P. J., Jorquera, J., Sepulveda, E., Asencio, V., Laroze, D., Labbe, F., Carrasco, J., and Torres, G.: Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America, Sci. Rep.-UK, 1, 8173, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4, 2019.
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Krüger, A., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., and Ulbrich, U.: The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought -synoptic diagnosis and impacts, Weather, 8, 209–216, https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.73.04, 2004.
Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C.: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 6, 398–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo866, 2010.
Gibson, P. B., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Fischer, E. M.: Comparing Australian heat waves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 6, 3266–3281, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025878, 2017.
Giorgi, F. and Bi, X.: A study of internal variability of a regional climate model, J. Geophys. Res., D24, 29503–29521, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900269, 2000.
Giorgi, F., Jones, C. , and Asrar, G. R.: Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Bulletin, 3, 175–183, 2009.
Groisman, P. Y., Bradley, R. S., and Sun, B.: The Relationship of Cloud Cover to Near-Surface Temperature and Humidity: Comparison of GCM Simulations with Empirical Data, J. Climate, 11, 1858–1878, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1858:TROCCT>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Hamdi, R., van de Vyver, H., and Termonia, P.: New cloud and microphysics parameterisation for use in high-resolution dynamical downscaling: application for summer extreme temperature over Belgium, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 2051–2065, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2409, 2012.
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201, 2008.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 730, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hofstra, N., Haylock, M., New, M., and Jones, P. D.: Testing E-OBS European high-resolution gridded data set of daily precipitation and surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011799, 2009.
Hoy, A., Hänsel, S., Skalak, P., Ustrnul, Z., and Bochníček, O.: The extreme European summer of 2015 in a long-term perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 2, 943–962, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4751, 2017.
Jaeger, E. B. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 1919–1939, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0780-8, 2011.
Jain, S., Scaife, A. A., Shepherd, T. G., Deser, C., Dunstone, N., Schmidt, G. A., Trenberth, K. E., and Turkington, T.: Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 68, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0, 2023.
Katavoutas, G. and Founda, D.: Response of Urban Heat Stress to Heat Waves in Athens (1960–2017), Atmosphere, 9, 483, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090483, 2019.
Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, 1975.
Kim, Y.-H., Ahn, J.-B., Suh, M.-S., Cha, D.-H., Chang, E.-C., Min, S.-K., Byun, Y.-H., and Kim, J.-U.: Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains, Environ. Res. Lett., 3, 34007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb727, 2023.
King, J. C., Marshall, G. J., Colwell, S., Arndt, S., Allen-Sader, C., and Phillips, T.: The Performance of the ERA-Interim and ERA5 Atmospheric Reanalyses Over Weddell Sea Pack Ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2022JC018805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018805, 2022.
Koch, J., Demirel, M. C., and Stisen, S.: The SPAtial EFficiency metric (SPAEF): multiple-component evaluation of spatial patterns for optimization of hydrological models, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1873–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1873-2018, 2018.
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
Kumar, R., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: The effects of spatial discretization and model parameterization on the prediction of extreme runoff characteristics, J. Hydrol., 1–2, 54–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.047, 2010.
Kyselý, J.: Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long-term prospect?, Int. J. Climatol., 1, 89–109, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1874, 2010.
Kyselý, J., Plavcová, E., Davídkovová, H., and Kynčl, J.: Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic, Clim. Res., 2, 113–129, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01014, 2011.
Lau, N.-C., and Nath, M. J.: Model Simulation and Projection of European Heat Waves in Present-Day and Future Climates, J. Climate, 10, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00284.1, 2014.
Laux, P., Nguyen, P. N. B., Cullmann, J., Van, T. P., and Kunstmann, H.: How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change?, Int. J. Climatol., 4, 2080–2100, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4836, 2017.
Lavers, D. A., Simmons, A., Vamborg, F., and Rodwell, M. J.: An evaluation of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 748, 3152–3165, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4351, 2022.
Lavin-Gullon, A., Fernandez, J., Bastin, S., Cardoso, R. M., Fita, L., Giannaros, T. M., Goergen, K., Gutierrez, J. M., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Lorenz, T., Milovac, J., Soares, P. M. M., Sobolowski, S., and Warrach-Sagi, K.: Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E656–E671, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6717, 2020.
Lei, Y., Letu, H., Shang, H., and Shi, J.: Cloud cover over the Tibetan Plateau and eastern China: a comparison of ERA5 and ERA-Interim with satellite observations, Clim. Dynam., 5–6, 2941–2957, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05149-x, 2020.
Lemonsu, A., Beaulant, A. L., Somot, S., and Masson, V.: Evolution of heat wave occurrence over the Paris basin (France) in the 21st century, Clim. Res., 1, 75–91, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01235, 2014.
Lhotka, O., and Kyselý, J.: Hot Central-European summer of 2013 in a long-term context, Int. J. Climatol., 14, 4399–4407, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4277, 2015a.
Lhotka, O., and Kyselý, J.: Spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves over Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 2351–2366, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2475-7, 2015b.
Lhotka, O., Kyselý, J., and Farda, A.: Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 3–4, 1043–1054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3, 2018a.
Lhotka, O., Kyselý, J., and Plavcová, E.: Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe, Clim. Dynam., 11–12, 4249–4262, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3873-9, 2018b.
Liang, X.-Z., Kunkel, K. E., Meehl, G. A., Jones, R. G., and Wang, J. X. L.: Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032849, 2008.
Lin, C., Kjellström, E., Wilcke, R. A. I., and Chen, D.: Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022.
Lobell, D. B., Bonfils, C., and Duffy, P. B.: Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: A model inter-comparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028726, 2007.
Luber, G. and McGeehin, M.: Climate change and extreme heat events, Am. J. Prev. Med., 5, 429–435, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021, 2008.
Lucas-Picher, P., Caya, D., Elía, R. de, and Laprise, R.: Investigation of regional climate models' internal variability with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations over a large domain, Clim. Dynam., 7–8, 927–940, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0384-8, 2008.
Machard, A., Inard, C., Alessandrini, J.-M., Pelé, C., and Ribéron, J.: A Methodology for Assembling Future Weather Files Including Heatwaves for Building Thermal Simulations from the European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) Climate Data, Energies, 13, 3424, https://doi.org/10.3390/en13133424, 2020.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric Tests Against Trend, Econometrica, 3, 245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945.
Meehl, G. A. and Tebaldi, C.: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 5686, 994–997, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704, 2004.
Molina, M. O., Sánchez, E., and Gutiérrez, C.: Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble, Sci. Rep.-UK, 1, 8801, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65663-0, 2020.
Mooney, P. A., Mulligan, F. J., and Fealy, R.: Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Parameterization Schemes for Regional Climates of Europe over the Period 1990–95, J. Climate, 3, 1002–1017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00676.1, 2013.
Nacar, S., Kankal, M., and Okkan, U.: Evaluation of the suitability of NCEP/NCAR, ERA-Interim and, ERA5 reanalysis data sets for statistical downscaling in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 134, 39, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00878-6, 2022.
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig, A.: Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations, Tellus A, 63A, 41–55, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x, 2011.
Nogueira, M.: Inter-comparison of ERA-5, ERA-interim and GPCP rainfall over the last 40 years: Process-based analysis of systematic and random differences, J. Hydrol., 583, 124632, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124632, 2020.
Ouzeau, G., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Schneider, M., Vautard, R., and Planton, S.: Heat waves analysis over France in present and future climate: Application of a new method on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, Climate Services, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.09.002, 2016.
Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Nairn, J. R.: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053361, 2012.
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E. and Lewis, S. C.: Increasing trends in regional heatwaves, Nat. Commun., 1, 3357, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7, 2020.
Petrovic, D.: WRF model configuration and data used for the NHESS manuscript “Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7998809, 2023.
Petrovic, D., Fersch, B., and Kunstmann, H.: Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022.
Plavcová, E. and Kyselý, J.: Evaluation of daily temperatures in Central Europe and their links to large-scale circulation in an ensemble of regional climate models, Tellus A, 63A, 763–781, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00514.x, 2011.
Plavcová, E. and Kyselý, J.: Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs, Adv. Meteorol., 2019, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321, 2019.
Poumadère, M., Mays, C., Le Mer, S., and Blong, R.: The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now, Risk Anal., 6, 1483–1494, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00694.x, 2005.
Rakhmatova, N., Arushanov, M., Shardakova, L., Nishonov, B., Taryannikova, R., Rakhmatova, V., and Belikov, D. A.: Evaluation of the Perspective of ERA-Interim and ERA5 Reanalyses for Calculation of Drought Indicators for Uzbekistan, Atmosphere, 5, 527, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050527, 2021.
Rinke, A. and Dethloff, K.: On the sensitivity of a regional Arctic climate model to initial and boundary conditions, Clim. Res., 2, 101–113, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr014101, 2000.
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 2, 171–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001, 2008.
Rousi, E., Fink, A. H., Andersen, L. S., Becker, F. N., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Breil, M., Cozzi, G., Heinke, J., Jach, L., Niermann, D., Petrovic, D., Richling, A., Riebold, J., Steidl, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Tradowsky, J. S., Coumou, D., Düsterhus, A., Ellsäßer, F., Fragkoulidis, G., Gliksman, D., Handorf, D., Haustein, K., Kornhuber, K., Kunstmann, H., Pinto, J. G., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Xoplaki, E.: The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023.
Russo, S., Marchese, A. F., Sillmann, J., and Immé, G.: When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 54016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054016, 2016.
Saeed, F., Almazroui, M., Islam, N., and Khan, M. S.: Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble, Nat. Hazards, 3, 1635–1647, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2837-z, 2017.
Schneidereit, A., Schubert, S., Vargin, P., Lunkeit, F., Zhu, X., Peters, D. H. W., and Fraedrich, K.: Large-Scale Flow and the Long-Lasting Blocking High over Russia: Summer 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 9, 2967–2981, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00249.1, 2012.
Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Mueller, B., and Alexander, L. V.: No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 161–163, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2145, 2014.
Silva, P. S., Geirinhas, J. L., Lapere, R., Laura, W., Cassain, D., Alegría, A., and Campbell, J.: Heatwaves and fire in Pantanal: Historical and future perspectives from CORDEX-CORE, J. Environ. Manage., 116193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116193, 2022.
Skamarock, W., Klemp, J., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Barker, D., Duda, M., Huang, X., Wang, W., and Powers, J. A.: Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3; Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-475+STR, NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, p. 113, 2008.
Smid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., and Pebesma, E.: Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves, Urban Climate, 388–402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010, 2019.
Steinkopf, J. and Engelbrecht, F.: Verification of ERA5 and ERA-Interim precipitation over Africa at intra-annual and interannual timescales, Atmos. Res., 280, 106427, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106427, 2022.
Štepánek, P., Zahradnícek, P., Farda, A., Skalák, P., Trnka, M., Meitner, J., and Rajdl, K.: Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models, Clim. Res., 2, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01424, 2016.
Stoelinga, M. T., Hobbs, P. V., Mass, C. F., Locatelli, J. D., Colle, B. A., Houze, R. A., Rangno, A. L., Bond, N. A., Smull, B. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Thompson, G., and Colman, B. R.: Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 12, 1807–1826, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1807, 2003.
Sun, B., Groisman, P. Y., Bradley, R. S., and Keimig, F. T.: Temporal Changes in the Observed Relationship between Cloud Cover and Surface Air Temperature, J. Climate, 24, 4341–4357, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4341:TCITOR>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192, 2001.
Urban, A., Hanzlíková, H., Kyselý, J., and Plavcová, E.: Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic–A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 12, 1562, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14121562, 2017.
Valeriánová, A., Crhová, L., Holtanová, E., Kašpar, M., Müller, M., and Pecho, J.: High temperature extremes in the Czech Republic 1961–2010 and their synoptic variants, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 1–2, 17–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1614-8, 2017.
van der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, Tech Rep., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2009.
Varela, R., Rodríguez-Díaz, L., and deCastro, M.: Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century, PLOS ONE, 11, e0242477, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242477, 2020.
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Jacob, D., Belda, M., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Fernández, J., García-Díez, M., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Karacostas, T., Katragkou, E., Keuler, K., Kotlarski, S., Mayer, S., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Patarčić, M., Scinocca, J., Sobolowski, S., Suklitsch, M., Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Yiou, P.: The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 2555–2575, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z, 2013.
Vichot-Llano, A., Martinez-Castro, D., Giorgi, F., Bezanilla-Morlot, A., and Centella-Artola, A.: Comparison of GCM and RCM simulated precipitation and temperature over Central America and the Caribbean, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 1–2, 389–402, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03400-3, 2021.
Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., Wartenburger, R., Dee, D., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change, Earths Future, 7, 692–703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001189, 2019.
Wagner, S. and Kunstmann, H.: High resolution precipitation fields for the planning of urban drainage systems using WRF, SCC Annual Report, 2016.
Wang, P., Hui, P., Xue, D., and Tang, J.: Future projection of heat waves over China under global warming within the CORDEX-EA-II project, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 957–973, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04621-7, 2019a.
Wang, P., Tang, J., Sun, X., Liu, J., and Juan, F.: Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 799–818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4167-6, 2019b.
Warscher, M., Wagner, S., Marke, T., Laux, P., Smiatek, G., Strasser, U., and Kunstmann, H.: A 5 kmResolution Regional Climate Simulation for Central Europe: Performance in High Mountain Areas and Seasonal, Regional and Elevation-Dependent Variations, Atmosphere, 11, 682, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110682, 2019.
Wedler, M., Pinto, J. G., and Hochman, A.: More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean, Sci. Total Environ., 870, 161883, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161883, 2023.
Yu, B., Li, G., Chen, S., and Lin, H.: The role of internal variability in climate change projections of North American surface air temperature and temperature extremes in CanESM2 large ensemble simulations, Clim. Dynam., 3–4, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05296-1, 2020.
Zeng, X.-M., Wang, M., Zhang, Y., Wang, Y., and Zheng, Z.: Assessing the Effects of Spatial Resolution on Regional Climate Model Simulated Summer Temperature and Precipitation in China: A Case Study, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 639567, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/7639567, 2016.
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint