Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2024
| 31 Jan 2024
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Benjamin Fersch
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Harald Kunstmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Institute of Geography and Center for Climate Resilience, University of Augsburg, Alter Postweg 118, 86159 Augsburg, Germany
Related authors
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Maximilian Graf, Andreas Wagner, Julius Polz, Llorenç Lliso, José Alberto Lahuerta, Harald Kunstmann, and Christian Chwala
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2165–2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can be used for rainfall retrieval. The detection of rainy periods in their attenuation time series is a crucial processing step. We investigate the usage of rainfall data from MSG SEVIRI for this task, compare this approach with existing methods, and introduce a novel combined approach. The results show certain advantages for SEVIRI-based methods, particularly for CMLs where existing methods perform poorly. Our novel combination yields the best performance.
Patrick Olschewski, Qi Sun, Jianhui Wei, Yu Li, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Joël Arnault, Tanja C. Schober, Brian Böker, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-95, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
There are indications that typhoon intensities may increase under global warming. However, further research on these projections and their uncertainties is necessary. We study changes in typhoon intensity under SSP5-8.5 for seven events affecting the Pearl River Delta using Pseudo-Global Warming and a storyline approach based on 16 CMIP6 models. Results show intensified wind speed, sea level pressure drop and precipitation levels for six events with amplified increases for individual storylines.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Mohsen Soltani, Bert Hamelers, Abbas Mofidi, Christopher G. Fletcher, Arie Staal, Stefan C. Dekker, Patrick Laux, Joel Arnault, Harald Kunstmann, Ties van der Hoeven, and Maarten Lanters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 931–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal changes and spatial patterns in precipitation events do not show a homogeneous tendency across the Sinai Peninsula. Mediterranean cyclones accompanied by the Red Sea and Persian troughs are responsible for the majority of Sinai's extreme rainfall events. Cyclone tracking captures 156 cyclones (rainfall ≥10 mm d-1) either formed within or transferred to the Mediterranean basin precipitating over Sinai.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Benjamin Fersch, Andreas Wagner, Bettina Kamm, Endrit Shehaj, Andreas Schenk, Peng Yuan, Alain Geiger, Gregor Moeller, Bernhard Heck, Stefan Hinz, Hansjörg Kutterer, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5287–5307, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a comprehensive multi-disciplinary dataset for tropospheric water vapor was developed. Geodetic, photogrammetric, and atmospheric modeling and data fusion techniques were used to obtain maps of water vapor in a high spatial and temporal resolution. It could be shown that regional weather simulations for different seasons benefit from assimilating these maps and that the combination of the different observation techniques led to positive synergies.
Maik Heistermann, Heye Bogena, Till Francke, Andreas Güntner, Jannis Jakobi, Daniel Rasche, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Benjamin Fersch, Jannis Groh, Amol Patil, Thomas Pütz, Marvin Reich, Steffen Zacharias, Carmen Zengerle, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2501–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) to measure spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns during a 2-month campaign in the Wüstebach headwater catchment in Germany. Stationary, mobile, and airborne CRNS technology monitored the root-zone water dynamics as well as spatial heterogeneity in the 0.4 km2 area. The 15 CRNS stations were supported by a hydrogravimeter, biomass sampling, and a wireless soil sensor network to facilitate holistic hydrological analysis.
Heye Reemt Bogena, Martin Schrön, Jannis Jakobi, Patrizia Ney, Steffen Zacharias, Mie Andreasen, Roland Baatz, David Boorman, Mustafa Berk Duygu, Miguel Angel Eguibar-Galán, Benjamin Fersch, Till Franke, Josie Geris, María González Sanchis, Yann Kerr, Tobias Korf, Zalalem Mengistu, Arnaud Mialon, Paolo Nasta, Jerzy Nitychoruk, Vassilios Pisinaras, Daniel Rasche, Rafael Rosolem, Hami Said, Paul Schattan, Marek Zreda, Stefan Achleitner, Eduardo Albentosa-Hernández, Zuhal Akyürek, Theresa Blume, Antonio del Campo, Davide Canone, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, John G. Evans, Stefano Ferraris, Félix Frances, Davide Gisolo, Andreas Güntner, Frank Herrmann, Joost Iwema, Karsten H. Jensen, Harald Kunstmann, Antonio Lidón, Majken Caroline Looms, Sascha Oswald, Andreas Panagopoulos, Amol Patil, Daniel Power, Corinna Rebmann, Nunzio Romano, Lena Scheiffele, Sonia Seneviratne, Georg Weltin, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring of increasingly frequent droughts is a prerequisite for climate adaptation strategies. This data paper presents long-term soil moisture measurements recorded by 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) operated by 24 institutions and distributed across major climate zones in Europe. Data processing followed harmonized protocols and state-of-the-art methods to generate consistent and comparable soil moisture products and to facilitate continental-scale analysis of hydrological extremes.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Christof Lorenz, Tanja C. Portele, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2701–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Semi-arid regions depend on the freshwater resources from the rainy seasons as they are crucial for ensuring security for drinking water, food and electricity. Thus, forecasting the conditions for the next season is crucial for proactive water management. We hence present a seasonal forecast product for four semi-arid domains in Iran, Brazil, Sudan/Ethiopia and Ecuador/Peru. It provides a benchmark for seasonal forecasts and, finally, a crucial contribution for improved disaster preparedness.
Benjamin Fersch, Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Jannis Jakobi, Gabriele Baroni, Theresa Blume, Heye Bogena, Christian Budach, Tobias Gränzig, Michael Förster, Andreas Güntner, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Mandy Kasner, Markus Köhli, Birgit Kleinschmit, Harald Kunstmann, Amol Patil, Daniel Rasche, Lena Scheiffele, Ulrich Schmidt, Sandra Szulc-Seyfried, Jannis Weimar, Steffen Zacharias, Marek Zreda, Bernd Heber, Ralf Kiese, Vladimir Mares, Hannes Mollenhauer, Ingo Völksch, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2289–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, 2020
Julius Polz, Christian Chwala, Maximilian Graf, and Harald Kunstmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3835–3853, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3835-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave link (CML) networks can be used to estimate path-averaged rain rates. This study evaluates the ability of convolutional neural networks to distinguish between wet and dry periods in CML time series data and the ability to transfer this detection skill to sensors not used for training. Our data set consists of several months of data from 3904 CMLs covering all of Germany. Compared to a previously used detection method, we could show a significant increase in performance.
Maximilian Graf, Christian Chwala, Julius Polz, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2931–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2931-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave links (CMLs), which form large parts of the backhaul from the ubiquitous cellular communication networks, can be used to estimate path-integrated rainfall rates. This study presents the processing and evaluation of the largest CML data set to date, covering the whole of Germany with almost 4000 CMLs. The CML-derived rainfall information compares well to a standard precipitation data set from the German Meteorological Service, which combines radar and rain gauge data.
Benjamin Fersch, Alfonso Senatore, Bianca Adler, Joël Arnault, Matthias Mauder, Katrin Schneider, Ingo Völksch, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, 2020
Rebecca Mott, Andreas Wolf, Maximilian Kehl, Harald Kunstmann, Michael Warscher, and Thomas Grünewald
The Cryosphere, 13, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1247-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The mass balance of very small glaciers is often governed by anomalous snow accumulation, winter precipitation being multiplied by snow redistribution processes, or by suppressed snow ablation driven by micrometeorological effects lowering net radiation and turbulent heat exchange. In this study we discuss the relative contribution of snow accumulation (avalanches) versus micrometeorology (katabatic flow) on the mass balance of the lowest perennial ice field of the Alps, the Ice Chapel.
Dominikus Heinzeller, Diarra Dieng, Gerhard Smiatek, Christiana Olusegun, Cornelia Klein, Ilse Hamann, Seyni Salack, Jan Bliefernicht, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 815–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-815-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-815-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change and population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change simulations is provided to support adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the concept and design of the simulations and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data.
Caroline Brosy, Karina Krampf, Matthias Zeeman, Benjamin Wolf, Wolfgang Junkermann, Klaus Schäfer, Stefan Emeis, and Harald Kunstmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2773–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2773-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical and horizontal sounding of the planetary boundary layer can be complemented by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Utilizing a multicopter-type UAV spatial sampling of air and simultaneously sensing of meteorological variables is possible for the study of surface exchange processes. During stable atmospheric conditions, vertical methane gradients of about 300 ppb were found. This approach extended the vertical profile height of existing tower-based infrastructure by a factor of five.
Jan Schmieder, Florian Hanzer, Thomas Marke, Jakob Garvelmann, Michael Warscher, Harald Kunstmann, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 5015–5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5015-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5015-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel research on the spatiotemporal variability of snowmelt isotopic content in a high-elevation catchment with complex terrain
to improve the isotope-based hydrograph separation method. A modelling approach was used to weight the plot-scale snowmelt isotopic content
with melt rates for the north- and south-facing slope. The investigations showed that it is important to sample at least north- and south-facing slopes,
because of distinct isotopic differences between both slopes.
Bernd Schalge, Jehan Rihani, Gabriele Baroni, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Vincent Haefliger, Barbara Haese, Pablo Saavedra, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Felix Ament, Sabine Attinger, Olaf A. Cirpka, Stefan Kollet, Harald Kunstmann, Harry Vereecken, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we show how we used a coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface model at highest possible resolution to create a testbed for data assimilation. The model was able to capture all important processes and interactions between the compartments as well as showing realistic statistical behavior. This proves that using a model as a virtual truth is possible and it will enable us to develop data assimilation methods where states and parameters are updated across compartment.
Christian Chwala, Felix Keis, and Harald Kunstmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 991–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-991-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-991-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave link (CML) networks, like they are used as backbone for the cell phone network, can be used to derive rainfall information. However, data availability is limited due to the lack of suitable data acquisition systems. We have developed and currently operate a custom data acquisition system for CML networks that is able to acquire the required data for a large number of CMLs in real time. This system is the basis for a future countrywide rainfall product derived from CML data.
D. Heinzeller, M. G. Duda, and H. Kunstmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 77–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-77-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-77-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present an in-depth evaluation of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for medium-size meshes on several HPCs. We also demonstrate the model performance in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3km mesh with 65,536,002 horizontal grid cells on up to 458,752 cores.
F. Alshawaf, B. Fersch, S. Hinz, H. Kunstmann, M. Mayer, and F. J. Meyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4747–4764, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4747-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4747-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at deriving high spatially resolved maps of atmospheric water vapor by the fusion data from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The data fusion approach exploits the redundant and complementary spatial properties of all data sets to provide more accurate and high-resolution maps of water vapor. The comparison with maps from MERIS shows rms values of less than 1 mm.
G. Mao, S. Vogl, P. Laux, S. Wagner, and H. Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1787–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1787-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1787-2015, 2015
A. Wagner, J. Seltmann, and H. Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-1765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-1765-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
R. J. van der Ent, O. A. Tuinenburg, H.-R. Knoche, H. Kunstmann, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4869–4884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4869-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Catchment scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression is used to determine the drought severity and time zones where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations). Moreover, this study also examined the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Cited articles
Aich, V., Akhundzadah, N., Knuerr, A., Khoshbeen, A., Hattermann, F., Paeth, H., Scanlon, A., and Paton, E.: Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations, Climate, 2, 38, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020038, 2017.
Alexandru, A., de Elia, R., and Laprise, R.: Internal Variability in Regional Climate Downscaling at the Seasonal Scale, Mon. Weather Rev., 9, 3221–3238, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3456.1, 2007.
Ballester, J., Rodó, X., and Giorgi, F.: Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming, Clim. Dynam., 7–8, 1191–1205, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0641-5, 2010.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 6026, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Bastos, A., Gouveia, C. M., Trigo, R. M., and Running, S. W.: Analysing the spatio-temporal impacts of the 2003 and 2010 extreme heatwaves on plant productivity in Europe, Biogeosciences, 11, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, 2014.
Becker, F. N., Fink, A. H., Bissolli, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of historical European heat waves (1979–2019), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, e1120, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1120, 2022.
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, S1, 71–95, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z, 2007.
Braithwaite, R. J., Raper, S. C., and Candela, R.: Recent changes (1991–2010) in glacier mass balance and air temperature in the European Alps, Ann. Glaciol., 63, 139–146, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG63A285, 2013.
Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Lima, D. C. A., and Miranda, P. M. A.: Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 129–157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4124-4, 2019.
Careto, J. A. M., Soares, P. M. M., Cardoso, R. M., Herrera, S., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Added value of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution downscaling over the Iberian Peninsula revisited – Part 2: Max and min temperature, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2653–2671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2653-2022, 2022.
Caya, D. and Biner, S.: Internal variability of RCM simulations over an annual cycle, Clim. Dynam., 1, 33–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0360-2, 2004.
Christensen, J. H. and Christensen, O. B.: A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century, Climatic Change, S1, 7–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7, 2007.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., Noblet, N. de, Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 7058, 529–533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972, 2005.
Coppola, E., Raffaele, F., Giorgi, F., Giuliani, G., Xuejie, G., Ciarlo, J. M., Sines, T. R., Torres-Alavez, J. A., Das, S., Di Sante, F., Pichelli, E., Glazer, R., Müller, S. K., Abba Omar, S., Ashfaq, M., Bukovsky, M., Im, E.-S., Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Remedio, A., Remke, T., Kriegsmann, A., Bülow, K., Weber, T., Buntemeyer, L., Sieck, K., and Rechid, D.: Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 5–6, 1293–1383, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z, 2021.
Coumou, D. and Rahmstorf, S.: A decade of weather extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 491–496, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1452, 2012.
Davin, E. L., Maisonnave, E., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Is land surface processes representation a possible weak link in current Regional Climate Models?, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 74027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074027, 2016.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., Rosnay, P. de, Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 656, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., Weissenfluh, H. von, Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M., and Wanner, H.: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability, Clim. Dynam., 2–3, 251–275, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0233-1, 2007.
Demirel, M. C., Mai, J., Mendiguren, G., Koch, J., Samaniego, L., and Stisen, S.: Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1299–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1299-2018, 2018.
Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Ashfaq, M.: Intensification of hot extremes in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L15701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043888, 2010.
Di Luca, A., Elía, R. de, and Laprise, R.: Potential for added value in temperature simulated by high-resolution nested RCMs in present climate and in the climate change signal, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 443–464, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1384-2, 2013.
Dosio, A.: Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 493–519, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5, 2017.
ECA&D: European Climate Assessment & Dataset project, https://www.ecad.eu/ (last access: 15 November 2023), 2023.
EURO-CORDEX: EURO-CORDEX – Coordinated Downscaling Experiment – European Domain, https://www.euro-cordex.net/ (last access: 15 November 2023), 2023.
Feron, S., Cordero, R. R., Damiani, A., Llanillo, P. J., Jorquera, J., Sepulveda, E., Asencio, V., Laroze, D., Labbe, F., Carrasco, J., and Torres, G.: Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America, Sci. Rep.-UK, 1, 8173, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4, 2019.
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Krüger, A., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., and Ulbrich, U.: The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought -synoptic diagnosis and impacts, Weather, 8, 209–216, https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.73.04, 2004.
Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C.: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 6, 398–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo866, 2010.
Gibson, P. B., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Fischer, E. M.: Comparing Australian heat waves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 6, 3266–3281, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025878, 2017.
Giorgi, F. and Bi, X.: A study of internal variability of a regional climate model, J. Geophys. Res., D24, 29503–29521, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900269, 2000.
Giorgi, F., Jones, C. , and Asrar, G. R.: Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Bulletin, 3, 175–183, 2009.
Groisman, P. Y., Bradley, R. S., and Sun, B.: The Relationship of Cloud Cover to Near-Surface Temperature and Humidity: Comparison of GCM Simulations with Empirical Data, J. Climate, 11, 1858–1878, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1858:TROCCT>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Hamdi, R., van de Vyver, H., and Termonia, P.: New cloud and microphysics parameterisation for use in high-resolution dynamical downscaling: application for summer extreme temperature over Belgium, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 2051–2065, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2409, 2012.
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201, 2008.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 730, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hofstra, N., Haylock, M., New, M., and Jones, P. D.: Testing E-OBS European high-resolution gridded data set of daily precipitation and surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011799, 2009.
Hoy, A., Hänsel, S., Skalak, P., Ustrnul, Z., and Bochníček, O.: The extreme European summer of 2015 in a long-term perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 2, 943–962, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4751, 2017.
Jaeger, E. B. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 1919–1939, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0780-8, 2011.
Jain, S., Scaife, A. A., Shepherd, T. G., Deser, C., Dunstone, N., Schmidt, G. A., Trenberth, K. E., and Turkington, T.: Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 68, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0, 2023.
Katavoutas, G. and Founda, D.: Response of Urban Heat Stress to Heat Waves in Athens (1960–2017), Atmosphere, 9, 483, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090483, 2019.
Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, 1975.
Kim, Y.-H., Ahn, J.-B., Suh, M.-S., Cha, D.-H., Chang, E.-C., Min, S.-K., Byun, Y.-H., and Kim, J.-U.: Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains, Environ. Res. Lett., 3, 34007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb727, 2023.
King, J. C., Marshall, G. J., Colwell, S., Arndt, S., Allen-Sader, C., and Phillips, T.: The Performance of the ERA-Interim and ERA5 Atmospheric Reanalyses Over Weddell Sea Pack Ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2022JC018805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018805, 2022.
Koch, J., Demirel, M. C., and Stisen, S.: The SPAtial EFficiency metric (SPAEF): multiple-component evaluation of spatial patterns for optimization of hydrological models, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1873–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1873-2018, 2018.
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
Kumar, R., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: The effects of spatial discretization and model parameterization on the prediction of extreme runoff characteristics, J. Hydrol., 1–2, 54–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.047, 2010.
Kyselý, J.: Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long-term prospect?, Int. J. Climatol., 1, 89–109, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1874, 2010.
Kyselý, J., Plavcová, E., Davídkovová, H., and Kynčl, J.: Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic, Clim. Res., 2, 113–129, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01014, 2011.
Lau, N.-C., and Nath, M. J.: Model Simulation and Projection of European Heat Waves in Present-Day and Future Climates, J. Climate, 10, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00284.1, 2014.
Laux, P., Nguyen, P. N. B., Cullmann, J., Van, T. P., and Kunstmann, H.: How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change?, Int. J. Climatol., 4, 2080–2100, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4836, 2017.
Lavers, D. A., Simmons, A., Vamborg, F., and Rodwell, M. J.: An evaluation of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 748, 3152–3165, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4351, 2022.
Lavin-Gullon, A., Fernandez, J., Bastin, S., Cardoso, R. M., Fita, L., Giannaros, T. M., Goergen, K., Gutierrez, J. M., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Lorenz, T., Milovac, J., Soares, P. M. M., Sobolowski, S., and Warrach-Sagi, K.: Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E656–E671, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6717, 2020.
Lei, Y., Letu, H., Shang, H., and Shi, J.: Cloud cover over the Tibetan Plateau and eastern China: a comparison of ERA5 and ERA-Interim with satellite observations, Clim. Dynam., 5–6, 2941–2957, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05149-x, 2020.
Lemonsu, A., Beaulant, A. L., Somot, S., and Masson, V.: Evolution of heat wave occurrence over the Paris basin (France) in the 21st century, Clim. Res., 1, 75–91, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01235, 2014.
Lhotka, O., and Kyselý, J.: Hot Central-European summer of 2013 in a long-term context, Int. J. Climatol., 14, 4399–4407, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4277, 2015a.
Lhotka, O., and Kyselý, J.: Spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves over Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 2351–2366, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2475-7, 2015b.
Lhotka, O., Kyselý, J., and Farda, A.: Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 3–4, 1043–1054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3, 2018a.
Lhotka, O., Kyselý, J., and Plavcová, E.: Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe, Clim. Dynam., 11–12, 4249–4262, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3873-9, 2018b.
Liang, X.-Z., Kunkel, K. E., Meehl, G. A., Jones, R. G., and Wang, J. X. L.: Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032849, 2008.
Lin, C., Kjellström, E., Wilcke, R. A. I., and Chen, D.: Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022.
Lobell, D. B., Bonfils, C., and Duffy, P. B.: Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: A model inter-comparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028726, 2007.
Luber, G. and McGeehin, M.: Climate change and extreme heat events, Am. J. Prev. Med., 5, 429–435, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021, 2008.
Lucas-Picher, P., Caya, D., Elía, R. de, and Laprise, R.: Investigation of regional climate models' internal variability with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations over a large domain, Clim. Dynam., 7–8, 927–940, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0384-8, 2008.
Machard, A., Inard, C., Alessandrini, J.-M., Pelé, C., and Ribéron, J.: A Methodology for Assembling Future Weather Files Including Heatwaves for Building Thermal Simulations from the European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) Climate Data, Energies, 13, 3424, https://doi.org/10.3390/en13133424, 2020.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric Tests Against Trend, Econometrica, 3, 245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945.
Meehl, G. A. and Tebaldi, C.: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 5686, 994–997, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704, 2004.
Molina, M. O., Sánchez, E., and Gutiérrez, C.: Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble, Sci. Rep.-UK, 1, 8801, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65663-0, 2020.
Mooney, P. A., Mulligan, F. J., and Fealy, R.: Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Parameterization Schemes for Regional Climates of Europe over the Period 1990–95, J. Climate, 3, 1002–1017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00676.1, 2013.
Nacar, S., Kankal, M., and Okkan, U.: Evaluation of the suitability of NCEP/NCAR, ERA-Interim and, ERA5 reanalysis data sets for statistical downscaling in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 134, 39, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00878-6, 2022.
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig, A.: Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations, Tellus A, 63A, 41–55, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x, 2011.
Nogueira, M.: Inter-comparison of ERA-5, ERA-interim and GPCP rainfall over the last 40 years: Process-based analysis of systematic and random differences, J. Hydrol., 583, 124632, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124632, 2020.
Ouzeau, G., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Schneider, M., Vautard, R., and Planton, S.: Heat waves analysis over France in present and future climate: Application of a new method on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, Climate Services, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.09.002, 2016.
Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Nairn, J. R.: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053361, 2012.
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E. and Lewis, S. C.: Increasing trends in regional heatwaves, Nat. Commun., 1, 3357, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7, 2020.
Petrovic, D.: WRF model configuration and data used for the NHESS manuscript “Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7998809, 2023.
Petrovic, D., Fersch, B., and Kunstmann, H.: Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022.
Plavcová, E. and Kyselý, J.: Evaluation of daily temperatures in Central Europe and their links to large-scale circulation in an ensemble of regional climate models, Tellus A, 63A, 763–781, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00514.x, 2011.
Plavcová, E. and Kyselý, J.: Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs, Adv. Meteorol., 2019, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321, 2019.
Poumadère, M., Mays, C., Le Mer, S., and Blong, R.: The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now, Risk Anal., 6, 1483–1494, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00694.x, 2005.
Rakhmatova, N., Arushanov, M., Shardakova, L., Nishonov, B., Taryannikova, R., Rakhmatova, V., and Belikov, D. A.: Evaluation of the Perspective of ERA-Interim and ERA5 Reanalyses for Calculation of Drought Indicators for Uzbekistan, Atmosphere, 5, 527, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050527, 2021.
Rinke, A. and Dethloff, K.: On the sensitivity of a regional Arctic climate model to initial and boundary conditions, Clim. Res., 2, 101–113, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr014101, 2000.
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 2, 171–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001, 2008.
Rousi, E., Fink, A. H., Andersen, L. S., Becker, F. N., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Breil, M., Cozzi, G., Heinke, J., Jach, L., Niermann, D., Petrovic, D., Richling, A., Riebold, J., Steidl, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Tradowsky, J. S., Coumou, D., Düsterhus, A., Ellsäßer, F., Fragkoulidis, G., Gliksman, D., Handorf, D., Haustein, K., Kornhuber, K., Kunstmann, H., Pinto, J. G., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Xoplaki, E.: The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023.
Russo, S., Marchese, A. F., Sillmann, J., and Immé, G.: When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 54016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054016, 2016.
Saeed, F., Almazroui, M., Islam, N., and Khan, M. S.: Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble, Nat. Hazards, 3, 1635–1647, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2837-z, 2017.
Schneidereit, A., Schubert, S., Vargin, P., Lunkeit, F., Zhu, X., Peters, D. H. W., and Fraedrich, K.: Large-Scale Flow and the Long-Lasting Blocking High over Russia: Summer 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 9, 2967–2981, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00249.1, 2012.
Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Mueller, B., and Alexander, L. V.: No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 161–163, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2145, 2014.
Silva, P. S., Geirinhas, J. L., Lapere, R., Laura, W., Cassain, D., Alegría, A., and Campbell, J.: Heatwaves and fire in Pantanal: Historical and future perspectives from CORDEX-CORE, J. Environ. Manage., 116193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116193, 2022.
Skamarock, W., Klemp, J., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Barker, D., Duda, M., Huang, X., Wang, W., and Powers, J. A.: Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3; Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-475+STR, NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, p. 113, 2008.
Smid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., and Pebesma, E.: Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves, Urban Climate, 388–402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010, 2019.
Steinkopf, J. and Engelbrecht, F.: Verification of ERA5 and ERA-Interim precipitation over Africa at intra-annual and interannual timescales, Atmos. Res., 280, 106427, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106427, 2022.
Štepánek, P., Zahradnícek, P., Farda, A., Skalák, P., Trnka, M., Meitner, J., and Rajdl, K.: Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models, Clim. Res., 2, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01424, 2016.
Stoelinga, M. T., Hobbs, P. V., Mass, C. F., Locatelli, J. D., Colle, B. A., Houze, R. A., Rangno, A. L., Bond, N. A., Smull, B. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Thompson, G., and Colman, B. R.: Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 12, 1807–1826, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1807, 2003.
Sun, B., Groisman, P. Y., Bradley, R. S., and Keimig, F. T.: Temporal Changes in the Observed Relationship between Cloud Cover and Surface Air Temperature, J. Climate, 24, 4341–4357, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4341:TCITOR>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192, 2001.
Urban, A., Hanzlíková, H., Kyselý, J., and Plavcová, E.: Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic–A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 12, 1562, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14121562, 2017.
Valeriánová, A., Crhová, L., Holtanová, E., Kašpar, M., Müller, M., and Pecho, J.: High temperature extremes in the Czech Republic 1961–2010 and their synoptic variants, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 1–2, 17–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1614-8, 2017.
van der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, Tech Rep., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2009.
Varela, R., Rodríguez-Díaz, L., and deCastro, M.: Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century, PLOS ONE, 11, e0242477, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242477, 2020.
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Jacob, D., Belda, M., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Fernández, J., García-Díez, M., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Karacostas, T., Katragkou, E., Keuler, K., Kotlarski, S., Mayer, S., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Patarčić, M., Scinocca, J., Sobolowski, S., Suklitsch, M., Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Yiou, P.: The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 2555–2575, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z, 2013.
Vichot-Llano, A., Martinez-Castro, D., Giorgi, F., Bezanilla-Morlot, A., and Centella-Artola, A.: Comparison of GCM and RCM simulated precipitation and temperature over Central America and the Caribbean, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 1–2, 389–402, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03400-3, 2021.
Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., Wartenburger, R., Dee, D., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change, Earths Future, 7, 692–703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001189, 2019.
Wagner, S. and Kunstmann, H.: High resolution precipitation fields for the planning of urban drainage systems using WRF, SCC Annual Report, 2016.
Wang, P., Hui, P., Xue, D., and Tang, J.: Future projection of heat waves over China under global warming within the CORDEX-EA-II project, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 957–973, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04621-7, 2019a.
Wang, P., Tang, J., Sun, X., Liu, J., and Juan, F.: Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project, Clim. Dynam., 1–2, 799–818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4167-6, 2019b.
Warscher, M., Wagner, S., Marke, T., Laux, P., Smiatek, G., Strasser, U., and Kunstmann, H.: A 5 kmResolution Regional Climate Simulation for Central Europe: Performance in High Mountain Areas and Seasonal, Regional and Elevation-Dependent Variations, Atmosphere, 11, 682, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110682, 2019.
Wedler, M., Pinto, J. G., and Hochman, A.: More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean, Sci. Total Environ., 870, 161883, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161883, 2023.
Yu, B., Li, G., Chen, S., and Lin, H.: The role of internal variability in climate change projections of North American surface air temperature and temperature extremes in CanESM2 large ensemble simulations, Clim. Dynam., 3–4, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05296-1, 2020.
Zeng, X.-M., Wang, M., Zhang, Y., Wang, Y., and Zheng, Z.: Assessing the Effects of Spatial Resolution on Regional Climate Model Simulated Summer Temperature and Precipitation in China: A Case Study, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 639567, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/7639567, 2016.
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint