Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
27 Jun 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 27 Jun 2024

A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany

Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2025
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The paper addresses a highly relevant and topical question in flood risk management. The method and results are an innovative and interesting contribution to the field of research which merits information to the broader public and media.
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Short summary

To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.

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