A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany

Voit, Paul; Heistermann, Maik

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 6

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

27 Jun 2024

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 27 Jun 2024

A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany

Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

Data sets

plvoit/xWEI-Quantifying-the-extremeness-of-precipitation-across-scales: xWEI (v.1.0.0) Paul Voit https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6556446

Gauge-adjusted one-hour precipitation sum ({RW}): RADKLIM Version 2017.002: Reprocessed gauge-adjusted radar data, one-hour precipitation sums (RW) Tanja Winterrath et al. https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/RADKLIM_RW_V2017.002

Model code and software

A downward counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany - Code repository (v0.1) Paul Voit https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10473424

Short summary

To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.