Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
03 May 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 May 2024
| 03 May 2024
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Luca G. Severino
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Chahan M. Kropf
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Christopher Fairless
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Andries Jan de Vries
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
David N. Bresch
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Empirical evaluation of windstorm losses and meteorological variables over the Netherlands M. Fonseca Cerda et al.
- Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble J. Coburn et al.
- Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity M. Priestley et al.
- Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables C. Leach et al.
- Winter stratospheric extreme events impact European storm damage H. Afargan-Gerstman & D. Domeisen
- Challenges and opportunities for understanding societal impacts of climate extremes G. Messori et al.
- Beetles, wind, and fire: Effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs S. Mutterer et al.
- Can small towns survive climate change? Assessing economic resilience and vulnerability amid major storms R. Nazari et al.
- Projected changes in European hail damage risk to buildings: Insights from 3 °C Pseudo Global Warming simulations with a km-scale regional climate model T. Schmid et al.
- Extreme weather risks for European agriculture (1981–2020): A quantitative review using the E3CI L. Lakatos & K. Csabai
- Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate J. Øelund et al.
- Modeling stationary, periodic, and long memory processes by superposed jump-driven processes H. Yoshioka
- Climate change affects future sea-bed mobility via storms and sea level rise J. Rulent et al.
- Interactions Between Snow Cover and Forest Composition Drive Seasonal and Regional Variability in Soil Thermal Regimes of Hemiboreal Forests in the Eastern Baltic Region A. Seipulis et al.
- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al.
- CLIMK–WINDS: a new database of extreme European winter windstorms C. Flynn et al.
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Empirical evaluation of windstorm losses and meteorological variables over the Netherlands M. Fonseca Cerda et al.
- Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble J. Coburn et al.
- Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity M. Priestley et al.
- Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables C. Leach et al.
- Winter stratospheric extreme events impact European storm damage H. Afargan-Gerstman & D. Domeisen
- Challenges and opportunities for understanding societal impacts of climate extremes G. Messori et al.
- Beetles, wind, and fire: Effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs S. Mutterer et al.
- Can small towns survive climate change? Assessing economic resilience and vulnerability amid major storms R. Nazari et al.
- Projected changes in European hail damage risk to buildings: Insights from 3 °C Pseudo Global Warming simulations with a km-scale regional climate model T. Schmid et al.
- Extreme weather risks for European agriculture (1981–2020): A quantitative review using the E3CI L. Lakatos & K. Csabai
- Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate J. Øelund et al.
- Modeling stationary, periodic, and long memory processes by superposed jump-driven processes H. Yoshioka
- Climate change affects future sea-bed mobility via storms and sea level rise J. Rulent et al.
- Interactions Between Snow Cover and Forest Composition Drive Seasonal and Regional Variability in Soil Thermal Regimes of Hemiboreal Forests in the Eastern Baltic Region A. Seipulis et al.
- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al.
- CLIMK–WINDS: a new database of extreme European winter windstorms C. Flynn et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 May 2026
Editorial statement
The future of loss and damage from severe European winterstorms remains an open topic for research, societies and affected communities. This manuscript fills a significant gap in our current understanding of future lossess based on the lastes CMIP6 model simulations. The findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to
extreme weather in the future.
The future of loss and damage from severe European winterstorms remains an open topic for...
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project...
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