Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
03 May 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 03 May 2024

Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate

Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch

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The future of loss and damage from severe European winterstorms remains an open topic for research, societies and affected communities. This manuscript fills a significant gap in our current understanding of future lossess based on the lastes CMIP6 model simulations. The findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to extreme weather in the future.
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We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
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