Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024
Research article
 | 
28 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2024

Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines

Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy

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Cited articles

Anglian Water: Anglian Water Drought Plan 2022, https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/about-us/our-strategies-and-plans/drought-plan/ (last access: 6 March 2023), 2022a. 
Anglian Water: When it does rain, it pours, but still more’s needed to boost water supplies in East Anglia for summer, https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/news/when-it-does-rain-it-pours-but-still-mores-needed-to-boost-water-supplies-in-east-anglia-for-summer/ (last access: 6 March 2023), 2022b. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Parry, S., Smith, K. A., Tanguy, M., and Prudhomme, C.: Historic hydrological droughts 1891–2015: systematic characterisation for a diverse set of catchments across the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4583–4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, 2019. 
Brunner, M. I. and Slater, L. J.: Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, 2022. 
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Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
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