Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
Research article
28 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2024

Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines

Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy

Data sets

Storylines of the 2022 UK drought using seasonal hindcasts at Anglian catchments and boreholes W. Chan et al.

Gridded estimates of daily and monthly areal rainfall for the United Kingdom (1890-2019) [CEH-GEAR] M. Tanguy et al.

HadUK-Grid - A new UK dataset of gridded climate observations ( D Hollis et al.

Seasonal forecast daily and subdaily data on single levels Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store

The ERA5 global reanalysis (!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels) H. Hersbach et al.

Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Final-revised paper