Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 29 Nov 2023
| 29 Nov 2023
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Francesco Battaglioli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
European Severe Storms Laboratory e.V. (ESSL), 82234 Wessling, Germany
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Univerisität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Pieter Groenemeijer
European Severe Storms Laboratory e.V. (ESSL), 82234 Wessling, Germany
European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) – Science and Training, 2700 Wiener Neustadt, Austria
Ivan Tsonevsky
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Tomàš Púčik
European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) – Science and Training, 2700 Wiener Neustadt, Austria
Related authors
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Alois M. Holzer, Thomas M. E. Schreiner, and Tomáš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1555–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1555-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1555-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study of a historical tornado that occurred about 100 years ago was motivated by the fact that rich photo material of the inflicted damage was available. It is important to rate particularly strong tornadoes, because their number is generally low, and statistics of the frequency for such events and the subsequent risk assessment heavily rely on a sound data basis. The tornado reached maximum winds of F4 intensity and caused 34 fatalities. A working method is presented for similar events.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Insights into thunderstorm characteristics from geostationary lightning jump and dive observations
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the risk posed by rare and catastrophic weather events are often derived from relatively short measurement records, which renders them highly uncertain. We investigate if (and by how much) this uncertainty can be reduced by making use of large datasets of simulated weather. More specifically, we focus on coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands and on the challenge of estimating the once in 10 million years coastal water level and wind stress as accurately as possible.
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jumps (LJs) and lightning dives (LDs) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature characteristics similar to severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail, or tornadoes.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Cited articles
Adams-Selin, R. and Ziegler, C. L.: Forecasting Hail Using a One-Dimensional Hail Growth Model within WRF, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4919–4939, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0027.1, 2016.
Allen, J., Giammanco, I., Kumjian, M., Jurgen Punge, H., Zhang Q., Groenemeijer, P., Kunz, M., and Ortega, K.: Understanding Hail in the Earth System, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000665, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000665, 2020.
Anderson, G. and Klugmann, D.: A European lightning density analysis using 5 years of ATDnet data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-815-2014, 2014.
Bang, S. and Cecil, D.: Constructing a Multifrequency Passive Microwave Hail Retrieval and Climatology in the GPM Domain, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 1889–1904, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0042.1, 2019.
Battaglioli, F., Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Taszarek, M., Ulbrich, U., and Rust, H.: Modeled Multidecadal Trends of Lightning and (Very) Large Hail in Europe and North America (1950–2021), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 62, 1627–1653, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0195.1, 2023.
Bright, D. R., Wandishin, M. S., Jewell, R. E., and Weiss, S. J.: A physically based parameter for lightning prediction and its calibration in ensemble forecasts, Conf. on Meteor. Appl. of Lightning Data, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Diego, CA, 10 January 2005, 3496, p. 30, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David-Bright (last access: 12 February 2022), 2005.
Brimelow, J. C., Reuter, G. W., and Poolman, E. R.: Modeling maximum hail size in Alberta thunderstorms, Weather Forecast., 17, 1048–1062, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<1048:mmhsia>2.0.co;2, 2002.
Brisson, E., Blahak, U., Lucas-Picher, P., Purr, C., and Ahrens, B.: Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 57, 2037–2051, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05791-z, 2021.
Cecil, D. and Blankenship, C.: Toward a Global Climatology of Severe Hailstorms as Estimated by Satellite Passive Microwave Imagers, J. Climate, 25, 687–703, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00130.1, 2012.
Cintineo, J., Smith, T., Lakshmanan, V., Brooks, H., and Ortega, K.: An Objective High-Resolution Hail Climatology of the Contiguous United States, Weather Forecast., 27, 1235–1248, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00151.1, 2012.
Cintineo, J. L., Pavolonis, M. J., and Sieglaff, J. M.: Probsevere lightningcast: A deep-learning model for satellite-based Lightning nowcasting, Weather Forecast., 37, 1239–1257, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0019.1, 2022.
Czernecki, B., Taszarek, M., Marosz, M., and Polrolniczak, M.: Application of machine learning to large hail prediction - The importance of radar reflectivity, lightning occurrence and convective parameters derived from ERA5, Atmos. Res., 227, 249–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.010, 2019.
Dafis, S., Fierro, A., Giannaros, T. M., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Mansell, E.: Performance evaluation of an explicit Lightning forecasting system., J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 5130–5148, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jd027930, 2018.
Doswell, C. A., Brooks, H. E., and Maddox, R. A.: Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients-based methodology, Weather Forecast., 11, 560–581, 1996.
Dotzek, N., Groenemeijer, P., Feuerstein, B., and Holzer, A. M.: Overview of ESSL's severe convective storms research using the European Severe Weather Database ESWD, Atmos. Res., 93, 575–586, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.10.020, 2009.
ECMWF: Operational Archive, ECMWF [data set], https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/operational-archive, last access: 10 January 2023.
Enno, S., Sugier, J., Alber, R., and Seltzer, M.: Lightning flash density in Europe based on 10 years of ATDnet data, Atmos. Res., 235, 104769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104769, 2020.
Feudale, L., Manzato, A., and Micheletti, S.: A cloud-to-ground lightning climatology for North-eastern Italy, Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-77-2013, 2013.
Fluck, E., Kunz, M., Geissbuehler, P., and Ritz, S. P.: Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021.
Gallo, B. T., Clark, A. J., and Dembek, S. R.: Forecasting tornadoes using convection-permitting ensembles, Weather Forecast., 31, 273–295, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0134.1, 2016.
Gallo, B. T., Clark, A. J., Smith, B. T., Thompson, R. L., Jirak, I., and Dembek, S. R.: Blended probabilistic tornado forecasts: Combining climatological frequencies with NSSL–WRF ensemble forecasts, Weather Forecast., 33, 443–460, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0132.1, 2018.
Geng, Y., Li, Q., Lin, T., Yao, W., Xu, L., Zheng, D., Zhou, X., Zheng, L., Lyu, W., and Zhang, Y.: A deep learning framework for lightning forecasting with multi-source spatiotemporal data, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 4048–4062, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4167, 2021.
Gensini, V. A. and Tippett, M. K.: Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) predictions of Days 1–15 U.S. tornado and hail frequencies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2922–2930, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081724, 2019.
Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Holzer, A. M., Antonescu, B., Riemann-Campe, K., Schultz, D. M., Kühne, T., Feuerstein, B., Brooks, H. E., Doswell, C. A., Koppert, H., and Sausen, R.: Severe Convective Storms in Europe: Ten Years of Research and Education at the European Severe Storms Laboratory, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 2641–2651, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0067.1, 2017.
Hamill, T. M., Hagedorn, R., and Whitaker, J. S.: Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. part II: Precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2620–2632, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr2411.1, 2008.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Jewell, R. and Brimelow, J.: Evaluation of Alberta hail growth model using severe hail proximity soundings from the United States, Weather Forecast., 24, 1592–1609, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009waf2222230.1, 2009.
Johns, R. H. and Doswell III, C. A.: Severe local storms forecasting, Weather Forecast., 7, 588–612, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0588:SLSF>2.0.CO;2, 1992.
Johnson, A. and Sugden, K.: Evaluation of Sounding-Derived Thermodynamic and Wind-Related Parameters Associated with Large Hail Events, E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 9, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.55599/ejssm.v9i5.57, 2014.
Kühne, T., Antonescu, B., Groenemeijer, P., and Púčik, T.: Lightning fatalities in Europe (2001–2020), 11th European Conference on Severe Storms, Bucharest (RO), 8 May 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ecss2023-146, 2023.
Kumjian, M., Lombardo, K., and Loeffler, S.: The Evolution of Hail Production in Simulated Supercell Storms, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 3417–3440, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0034.1, 2021.
Lagasio, M., Parodi, A., Procopio, R., Rachidi, F., and Fiori, E.: Lightning potential index performances in multimicrophysical cloud-resolving simulations of a back-building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 Event, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 4238–4257, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd026115, 2017.
Leinonen, J., Hamann, U., and Germann, U.: Seamless lightning nowcasting with recurrent-convolutional deep learning, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 1, https://doi.org/10.1175/aies-d-22-0043.1, 2022.
Lepore, C., Tippett, M. K., and Allen, J. T.: ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March–May US tornado and hail activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9093– 9101, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074781, 2017.
Lepore, C., Tippett, M. K., and Allen, J. T.: CFSv2 monthly forecasts of tornado and hail activity, Weather Forecast., 33, 1283–1297, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0054.1, 2018.
Loken, E. D., Clark, A. J., and Karstens, C. D.: Generating Probabilistic Next-Day Severe Weather Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Random Forests, Weather Forecast., 35, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0258.1, 2020.
Lopez, P.: A Lightning Parameterization for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3057–3075, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0026.1, 2016.
Martius, O., Kunz, M., Nisi, L., and Hering, A.: Conference report 1st European Hail Workshop, Meteorol. Z., 24, 441–442, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2015/0667, 2015.
McCaul, E. W., Goodman, S. J., LaCasse, K. M., and Cecil, D. J.: Forecasting lightning threat using cloud-resolving model simulations, Weather Forecast., 24, 709–729, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008waf2222152.1, 2009.
Mostajabi, A., Finney, D. L., Rubinstein, M., and Rachidi, F.: Nowcasting lightning occurrence from commonly available meteorological parameters using machine learning techniques, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 41, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0098-0, 2019.
Murillo E., Homeyer, C., and Allen, J.: A 23-Year Severe Hail Climatology Using GridRad MESH Observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 945–958, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0178.1, 2021.
Nisi, L., Hering, A., Germann, U., Schroeer, K., Barras, H., Kunz, M., and Martius, O.: Hailstorms in the Alpine region: Diurnal cycle, 4D-characteristics, and the nowcasting potential of lightning properties, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 4170–4194, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3897, 2020.
Ortega, K. L., Krause, J. M., and Ryzhkov, A. V.: Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Melting Hail. Part III: Validation of the Algorithm for Hail Size Discrimination, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 55, 829–848, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0203.1, 2016.
Poręba, S., Taszarek, M., and Ustrnul, Z.: Diurnal and Seasonal Variability of ERA5 Convective Parameters in Relation to Lightning Flash Rates in Poland, Weather Forecast., 37, 1447–1470, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0099.1, 2022.
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rýva, D., and Kolář, M.: Proximity Soundings of Severe and Nonsevere Thunderstorms in Central Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 4805–4821, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0104.1, 2015.
Púčik, T., Castellano, C., Groenemeijer, P., Kühne, T., Rädler, A., Antonescu, B., and Faust, E.: Large Hail Incidence and Its Economic and Societal Impacts across Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3901–3916, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0204.1, 2019.
Rädler, A., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., and Sausen, R.: Detecting Severe Weather Trends Using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model (AR-CHaMo), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 569–587, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0132.1, 2018.
Ryzhkov, A. V., Kumjian, M. R., Ganson, S. M., and Zhang, P.: Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Melting Hail. Part II: Practical Implications, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 52, 2871–2886, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-074.1, 2013.
Schmidt, M.: Improvement of hail detection and nowcasting by synergistic combination of information from polarimetric radar, model predictions, and in-situ observations, PhD dissertation, Universität Bonn, 150 pp., 2020.
Schwarz, G.: Estimating the Dimension of a Model, Ann. Stat., 6, 461–464, https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344136, 1978.
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B., Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Schulz, W.: A climatology of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources, J. Climate, 32, 1813–1837, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0372.1, 2019.
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Groenemeijer, P., Edwards, R., Brooks, H., Chmielewski, V., and Enno, S.: Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part I: Climatology of Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10239–10261, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0345.1, 2020a.
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Hoogewind, K., and Brooks, H.: Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10263–10286, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1, 2020b.
Thompson, R. L., Edwards R., and Mead C. M.: An update to the supercell composite and significant tornado parameters, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P8.1, https://ams.confex.com/ams/11aram22sls/techprogram/paper_82100.htm (last access: 10 February 2023), 2004.
Thompson, R. L., Smith, B. T., Grams, J. S., Dean, A. R., and Broyles, C.: Convective modes for significant severe thunderstorms in the contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS tornado environments, Weather Forecast., 27, 1136–1154, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00116.1, 2012.
Tsonevsky, I., Doswell, C. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Early warnings of severe convection using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, Weather Forecast., 33, 857–871, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0030.1, 2018.
Uhlířová, I., Popová, J., and Sokol, Z.: Lightning potential index and its spatial and temporal characteristics in Cosmo NWP model, Atmos. Res., 268, 106025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106025, 2022.
Van Den Broeke, M. S., Schultz, D. M., Johns, R. H., Evans, J. S. and Hales, J. E.: Cloud-to-ground lightning production in strongly forced, low-instability convective lines associated with damaging wind, Weather Forecast., 20, 517–530, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF876.1, 2005.
Vitart, F.: Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1889–1899, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2256, 2013.
Wapler, K.: High-resolution climatology of lightning characteristics within Central Europe, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 122, 175–184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0285-1, 2013.
Westermayer, A., Groenemeijer, P., Pistotnik, G., Sausen, R. and Faust, E.: Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data, Meteorol. Z., 26, 59–70, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0754, 2017.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd Edition, International Geophysics Series, Vol. 59, Academic Press, 611 pp., https://sunandclimate.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/statistical-methods-in-the-atmospheric-sciences-0127519661.pdf (last access: 1 February 2022), 1995.
Wood, S. N.: Generalized additive models: an introduction with R, CRC press, https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315370279, 2017.
Yair, Y., Lynn, B., Price, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Morin, E., Mugnai, A., and Llasat, M. D. C.: Predicting the potential for lightning activity in Mediterranean storms based on the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model dynamic and Microphysical Fields, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D04205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010868, 2010.
Zepka, G. S., Pinto, O., and Saraiva, A. C. V.: Lightning forecasting in southeastern Brazil using the WRF model, Atmos. Res., 135–136, 344–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.01.008, 2014.
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint