Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023
Research article
 | 
11 Jan 2023
Research article |  | 11 Jan 2023

Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac

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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Dobrowski, S. Z., and Parks, S. A.: Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands, Sci. Rep., 10, 3891, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60270-5, 2020. a
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobæk Haff, I., Widmann, M., and Vrac, M.: Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017. a
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Vrac, M., Mentaschi, L., and Widmann, M.: Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change, Sci. Adv., 5, eaaw5531, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531, 2019. a, b, c, d
Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesic, S., Durante, F., et al.: Bottom-up identification of key elements of compound events, ESS Open Archive [preprint], 29, https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10507809.1, 23 August 2021. a
Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G., Lehner, F., and Zscheischler, J.: Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events, Nat. Clim. Chang., 12, 350–355, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5, 2022. a
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Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
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