Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)

Knevels, Raphael; Petschko, Helene; Proske, Herwig; Leopold, Philip; Mishra, Aditya N.; Maraun, Douglas; Brenning, Alexander

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 1

Research article

|

18 Jan 2023

Research article |

| 18 Jan 2023

Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)

Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023-supplement

Data sets

Event-based landslide susceptibility models (Styrian Basin, Austria) R. Knevels, H. Petschko, H. Proske, P. Leopold, D. Maraun, and A. Brenning https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6365228

Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets) P. Bechtold, M. Köhler, T. Jung, F. Doblas-Reyes, M. Leutbecher, M. J. Rodwell, F. Vitart, and G. Balsamo https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.289

The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and Its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region (https://data.hub.zamg.ac.at) T. Haiden, A. Kann, C. Wittmann, G. Pistotnik, B. Bica, and C. Gruber https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222451.1

The ERA5 Global Reanalysis (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets) H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, S. Abdalla, X. Abellan, G. Balsamo, P. Bechtold, G. Biavati, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, G. D. Chiara, P. Dahlgren, D. Dee, M. Diamantakis, R. Dragani, J. Flemming, R. Forbes, M. Fuentes, A. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. Healy, R. J. Hogan, E. Hólm, M. Janisková, S. Keeley, P. Laloyaux, P. Lopez, C. Lupu, G. Radnoti, P. de Rosnay, I. Rozum, F. Vamborg, S. Villaume, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

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Short summary

In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.