Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023
Research article
 | 
06 Jun 2023
Research article |  | 06 Jun 2023

A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale

Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos

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Cited articles

Addor, N., Jaun, S., Fundel, F., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011, 2011. a, b, c
Alfieri, L. and Thielen, J.: A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning, Meteorol. Appl., 22, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1328, 2012. a
Amengual, A., Carrió, D. S., Ravazzani, G., and Homar, V.: A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1143–1166, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0281.1, 2017. a, b
Amengual, A., Hermoso, A., Carrió, D. S., and Homar, V.: The sequence of heavy precipitation and flash flooding of 12 and 13 September 2019 in eastern Spain. Part II: A hydro-meteorological predictability analysis based on convection-permitting ensemble strategies, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 2153–2177, https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0181.1, 2021. a
Anctil, F. and Ramos, M.-H.: Verification Metrics for Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_3-1, 2017. a
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
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