Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023
Research article
 | 
06 Jun 2023
Research article |  | 06 Jun 2023

A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale

Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos

Related authors

Benchmark dataset for hydraulic simulations of flash floods in the French Mediterranean region
Juliette Godet, Pierre Nicolle, Nabil Hocini, Eric Gaume, Philippe Davy, Frederic Pons, Pierre Javelle, Pierre-André Garambois, Dimitri Lague, and Olivier Payrastre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2963–2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2963-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
Short summary
Evaluating the added value of impact-based models for flash flood detection in the French Mediterranean region
Juliette Godet, Eric Gaume, Pierre Javelle, Thomas Dias, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-16-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-16-2025, 2025
Improved Simulation of Thunderstorm Characteristics and Polarimetric Signatures with LIMA 2-Moment Microphysics in AROME
Cloé David, Clotilde Augros, Benoît Vié, François Bouttier, and Tony Le Bastard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-685,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-685, 2025
Short summary
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Addor, N., Jaun, S., Fundel, F., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011, 2011. a, b, c
Alfieri, L. and Thielen, J.: A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning, Meteorol. Appl., 22, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1328, 2012. a
Amengual, A., Carrió, D. S., Ravazzani, G., and Homar, V.: A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1143–1166, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0281.1, 2017. a, b
Amengual, A., Hermoso, A., Carrió, D. S., and Homar, V.: The sequence of heavy precipitation and flash flooding of 12 and 13 September 2019 in eastern Spain. Part II: A hydro-meteorological predictability analysis based on convection-permitting ensemble strategies, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 2153–2177, https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0181.1, 2021. a
Anctil, F. and Ramos, M.-H.: Verification Metrics for Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_3-1, 2017. a
Download
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint