Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023
Research article
 | 
28 Apr 2023
Research article |  | 28 Apr 2023

Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland

Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja

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Cited articles

Andersson, H. C.: Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level, Tellus A, 54, 76–88, 2002. a
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, 2019. a
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CISL Research Data Archive: Daily Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure Grids, continuing from 1899, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/7NB6-RJ33, 1979. a
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We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
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