Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-967-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-967-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Mar 2022
Research article |
| 22 Mar 2022
| 22 Mar 2022
The Cambodian Mekong floodplain under future development plans and climate change
Alexander J. Horton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, 02150 Espoo, Finland
Nguyen V. K. Triet
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Long P. Hoang
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
VNU School of Interdisciplinary Studies, Vietnam National University, 144 Xuan Thuy, Hanoi, Vietnam
Sokchhay Heng
Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Russian Federation Boulevard, P.O. Box 86, 12156 Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Panha Hok
Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Russian Federation Boulevard, P.O. Box 86, 12156 Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Sarit Chung
Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Russian Federation Boulevard, P.O. Box 86, 12156 Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Jorma Koponen
EIA Finland Ltd., Sinimäentie 10B, 02630 Espoo, Finland
Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, 02150 Espoo, Finland
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Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
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The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
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Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Christopher R. Hackney, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Sokchhay Heng, Vasudha Darbari, Samuel Walker, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1323–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1323-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1323-2021, 2021
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Unsustainable sand mining poses a threat to the stability of river channels. We use satellite imagery to estimate volumes of material removed from the Mekong River, Cambodia, over the period 2016–2020. We demonstrate that current rates of extraction now exceed previous estimates for the entire Mekong Basin and significantly exceed the volume of sand naturally transported by the river. Our work highlights the importance of satellite imagery in monitoring sand mining activity over large areas.
Marko Kallio, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, and Kirsi Virrantaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5155–5181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5155-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5155-2021, 2021
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Different runoff and streamflow products are freely available but may come with unsuitable spatial units. On the other hand, starting a new modelling exercise may require considerable resources. Hydrostreamer improves the usability of existing runoff products, allowing runoff and streamflow estimates at the desired spatial units with minimal data requirements and intuitive workflow. The case study shows that Hydrostreamer performs well compared to benchmark products and observation data.
Matias Heino, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Christoph Müller, Toshichika Iizumi, and Matti Kummu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020
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In this study, we analyse the impacts of three major climate oscillations on global crop production. Our results show that maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields are influenced by climate oscillations to a wide extent and in several important crop-producing regions. We observe larger impacts if crops are rainfed or fully fertilized, while irrigation tends to mitigate the impacts. These results can potentially help to increase the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
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In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Hafsa Ahmed Munia, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Naho Mirumachi, Yoshihide Wada, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2795-2018, 2018
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An analytical framework is developed drawing on ideas of regime shifts from resilience literature to understand the transition between cases where water scarcity is or is not experienced depending on whether water from upstream is or is not available. The analysis shows 386 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible stress and 306 million people dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. This provides insights into implications for negotiations between sub-basins.
Dung Duc Tran, Gerardo van Halsema, Petra J. G. J. Hellegers, Long Phi Hoang, Tho Quang Tran, Matti Kummu, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1875–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, 2018
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We modeled hydrological changes under impacts of large-scale dike constructions for intensive rice production in the floodplain of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Four scenarios show a significant increase in peak water levels in the upstream rivers, but very few water level changes are found downstream. Water balance calculations show where the floodwater goes under four dike construction scenarios. Its impacts on the tidal areas need to be clarified in the future with a 3-D hydraulic model.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
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In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Long Phi Hoang, Hannu Lauri, Matti Kummu, Jorma Koponen, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Iwan Supit, Rik Leemans, Pavel Kabat, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3027–3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, 2016
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We modelled hydrological changes under climate change in the Mekong River, focusing on extreme events. The scenario ensemble shows an intensification of the hydrological cycle under climate change. Annual river flow increases between 5 and 16 % depending on locations. Extreme high flows increase substantially in both magnitude and frequency, posing threats to flood safety in the basin. Extreme low-flow events are projected to reduce as a result of increased river flow during the dry season.
J. Jägermeyr, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, S. Schaphoff, M. Kummu, and W. Lucht
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015
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We present a process-based simulation of global irrigation systems for the world’s major crop types. This study advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems, a prerequisite for refined simulation of crop yields under climate change. We reveal for many river basins the potential for sizeable water savings and related increases in water productivity through irrigation improvements.
S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015
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We developed the historical irrigation data set (HID) depicting the spatio-temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5arcmin resolution.
The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on two historical maps for 1910 and 1960.
Global AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge decreased from 1900 to 1950.
M. E. Arias, T. Piman, H. Lauri, T. A. Cochrane, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5303–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5303-2014, 2014
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Hydrological modeling and assessment tools were used to provide evidence of the expected hydrological alterations that hydropower development in the lower Mekong tributaries could bring to the Tonle Sap. The most significant alterations are in terms of water levels during the dry season and rates of water level rise/drop which are crucial for tree seed germination and fish migrations, and therefore major ecological disruptions are likely to follow.
M. Kummu, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, M. Konzmann, and O. Varis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 447–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-447-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-447-2014, 2014
P. J. Ward, S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014
T. A. Räsänen, C. Lehr, I. Mellin, P. J. Ward, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2069–2081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013, 2013
M. Meybeck, M. Kummu, and H. H. Dürr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1093–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013, 2013
H. Lauri, H. de Moel, P. J. Ward, T. A. Räsänen, M. Keskinen, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4603–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012, 2012
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
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Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
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Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
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This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
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Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows a precise quantification of flood hazard under different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi basin in February 2023.
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, 2023
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
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It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-50, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach to asses the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
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Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
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In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
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In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
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Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
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On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
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Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
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An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
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A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
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We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
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A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
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We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, 2022
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Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, 2022
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The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
Lulu Liu, Jiangbo Gao, and Shaohong Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1577–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, 2022
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The impact of extreme events is increasing with global warming. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural-disaster risk, this study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of floods in China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic risks posed by floods, and determines the integrated risk levels. Global warming of 1.5 °C can effectively reduce the population affected and the economic risks of floods.
Miguel Moreno-Gómez, Carolina Martínez-Salvador, Rudolf Liedl, Catalin Stefan, and Julia Pacheco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1591–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, 2022
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Current vulnerability methods, as tools to protect groundwater resources from pollution, present some limitations and drawbacks: the roles of population and economic activities are not considered by such methods. The methodology presented in this work combines natural characteristics and human-driven conditions of a given region to improve the process of groundwater vulnerability analysis. Results indicate the reliability of this alternative method to improve groundwater protection strategies.
Małgorzata Chmiel, Maxime Godano, Marco Piantini, Pierre Brigode, Florent Gimbert, Maarten Bakker, Françoise Courboulex, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, David Ambrois, and Margot Chapuis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1541–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, 2022
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On 2 October 2020, the French Maritime Alps were struck by an extreme rainfall event caused by Storm Alex. Here, we show that seismic data provide the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves along the Vésubie River. We also detect 114 small local earthquakes triggered by the rainwater weight and/or its infiltration into the ground. This study paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and subsurface.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
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We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
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Short summary
We studied the cumulative impact of future development and climate change scenarios on discharge and floods in the Cambodian Mekong floodplain. We found that hydropower impacts dominate, acting in opposition to climate change impacts to drastically increase dry season flows and reduce wet season flows even when considering the higher RCP8.5 level. The consequent reduction in flood extent and duration may reduce regional flood risk but may also have negative impacts on floodplain productivity.
We studied the cumulative impact of future development and climate change scenarios on discharge...
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