Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Mar 2022
Research article |
| 07 Mar 2022
| 07 Mar 2022
Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
Climate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Emma D. Thomassen
National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
Danijel Belušić
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Petter Lind
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Peter Berg
Hydrology Research, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Jens H. Christensen
National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Norwegian Research Centre AS (NORCE), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ole B. Christensen
National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Andreas Dobler
Research and Development, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Erik Kjellström
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Jonas Olsson
Hydrology Research, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Hydrology Research, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Related authors
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new regional climate modelling system, HCLIM38, is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection-permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection-permitting scales are shown and are particularly evident for climate extremes.
Erika Toivonen, Marjo Hippi, Hannele Korhonen, Ari Laaksonen, Markku Kangas, and Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3481–3501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the skill of the road weather model RoadSurf to reproduce present-day road weather conditions in Finland when driven by a high-resolution regional climate model. Simulated road surface temperatures and conditions were compared to observations between 2002 and 2014 at 25 Finnish road weather stations. RoadSurf accurately captured the main characteristics of road weather conditions. Thus, this model can be used to study the future scenarios of road weather in the study area.
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Gokturk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-68, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We compared extreme precipitations in Norway from convection-permitting models at 3 km resolution (HCLIM3) and regional climate model at 12 km (HCLIM12) and show that the HCLIM3 is more accurate than HCLIM12 in predicting the intense rainfalls that can lead to floods, especially at local scales. This is more clear in hourly extremes than daily. Our research suggests using more detailed climate models could improve forecasts, helping the local society brace for the impacts of extreme weather.
Colin Gareth Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth, Peter Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene Hewitt, Hazel Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm Roberts, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Froelicher, Neven Fuckar, Matthew Gidden, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Melia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming ~6 years (i.e. to 2030). Advances in these areas will increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, as well as deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as the 7th IPCC Assessment Report and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events to changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored how these relationships can be investigated using a more common method, and relying solely on long-running observational records of temperature and precipitation.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
John Erik Engström, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Erik Kjellström, Chunlüe Zhou, Deliang Chen, and Cesar Azorin-Molina
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2259–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Newly digitized wind speed observations provide data from the time period from around 1920 to the present, enveloping one full century of wind measurements. The results of this work enable the investigation of the historical variability and trends in surface wind speed in Sweden for
the last century.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Abdelkader Mezghani, Julia Lutz, Andreas Dobler, Kajsa M. Parding, and Oskar A. Landgren
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2899–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A mathematical method known as common EOFs is not widely used within the climate research community, but it offers innovative ways of evaluating climate models. We show how common EOFs can be used to evaluate large ensembles of global climate model simulations and distill information about their ability to reproduce salient features of the regional climate. We can say that they represent a kind of machine learning (ML) for dealing with big data.
Jafet C. M. Andersson, Jonas Olsson, Remco (C. Z.) van de Beek, and Jonas Hansryd
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5411–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents data from three types of sensors for rain measurement, i.e. commercial microwave links (CMLs), gauges, and weather radar. Access to CML data is typically restricted, which limits research and applications. We openly share a large CML database (364 CMLs at 10 s resolution with true coordinates), along with 11 gauges and one radar composite. This opens up new opportunities to study CMLs, to benchmark algorithms, and to investigate how multiple sensors can best be combined.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Wei Yang, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6165–6180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
When performing impact analyses with climate models, one is often confronted with the issue that the models have significant bias. Commonly, the modelled climatological temperature deviates from the observed climate by a few degrees or it rains excessively in the model. MIdAS employs a novel statistical model to translate the model climatology toward that observed using novel methodologies and modern tools. The coding platform allows opportunities to develop methods for high-resolution models.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, and Remco van de Beek
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 59–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-59-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-59-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a tool to visualize rainfall observations, based on a combination of meteorological stations and weather radars, over Sweden in near real-time. By accumulating the rainfall in time (1–12 h) and space (hydrological basins), the tool is designed mainly for hydrological applications, e.g. to support flood forecasters and to facilitate post-event analyses. Despite evident uncertainties, different users have confirmed an added value of the tool in case studies.
Peter Berg, Fredrik Almén, and Denica Bozhinova
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1531–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
HydroGFD3.0 (Hydrological Global Forcing Data) is a data set of daily precipitation and temperature intended for use in hydrological modelling. The method uses different observational data sources to correct the variables from a model estimation of precipitation and temperature. An openly available data set covers the years 1979–2019, and times after this are available by request.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Aslak Grinsted and Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Ocean Sci., 17, 181–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As we warm our planet, oceans expand, ice on land melts, and sea levels rise. On century timescales, we find that the sea level response to warming can be characterized by a single metric: the transient sea level sensitivity. Historical sea level exhibits substantially higher sensitivity than model-based estimates of future climates in authoritative climate assessments, implying recent projections could well underestimate the likely sea level rise by the end of this century.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to heat waves over Scandinavia and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on both agriculture and human life. Using five climate model ensembles, the unique 263-year Stockholm temperature time series and a composite 150-year time series for the whole of Sweden, we found that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed in 2018, occurring in Sweden.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Marc Schleiss, Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, Tero Niemi, Teemu Kokkonen, Søren Thorndahl, Rasmus Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Denica Bozhinova, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A multinational assessment of radar's ability to capture heavy rain events is conducted. In total, six different radar products in Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden were considered. Results show a fair agreement, with radar underestimating by 17 %-44 % on average compared with gauges. Despite being adjusted for bias, five of six radar products still exhibited strong conditional biases with intensities of 1–2% per mm/h. Median peak intensity bias was significantly higher, reaching 44 %–67%.
Remco (C. Z.) van de Beek, Jonas Olsson, and Jafet Andersson
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 79–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-79-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-79-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation observation based on signal attenuation in a Commercial Microwave Link (CML) network is an emerging technique that is becoming more and more used. Here a pragmatic method for estimating the optimal resolution is presented. The method is demonstrated using a CML network and a representative precpitation pattern in Stockholm, Sweden. One application would be feasibility investigations in cities considering starting CML-based precipitation observations.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new regional climate modelling system, HCLIM38, is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection-permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection-permitting scales are shown and are particularly evident for climate extremes.
Cristian Lussana, Ole Einar Tveito, Andreas Dobler, and Ketil Tunheim
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1531–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1531-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1531-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
seNorge_2018 is a collection of observational gridded datasets for daily total precipitation and daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature for the Norwegian mainland covering the time period from 1957 to the present day. The fields have 1 km of grid spacing. The data are used for applications in climatology, hydrology, and meteorology. seNorge_2018 provides a "gridded truth", especially in data-dense regions. The uncertainty increases with decreasing data density.
Erika Toivonen, Marjo Hippi, Hannele Korhonen, Ari Laaksonen, Markku Kangas, and Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3481–3501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the skill of the road weather model RoadSurf to reproduce present-day road weather conditions in Finland when driven by a high-resolution regional climate model. Simulated road surface temperatures and conditions were compared to observations between 2002 and 2014 at 25 Finnish road weather stations. RoadSurf accurately captured the main characteristics of road weather conditions. Thus, this model can be used to study the future scenarios of road weather in the study area.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Kean Foster, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Jonas Olsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Stefan Liersch, Julia Tecklenburg, Henning Rust, Andreas Dobler, Madlen Fischer, Tim Kruschke, Hagen Koch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Application-oriented regional impact studies require accurate simulations of future climate variables and water availability. We analyse the quality of global and regional climate projections and discuss potentials of correction methods that partly overcome this quality issue. The model ensemble used in this study projects increasing average annual discharges and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.
Peter Berg, Chantal Donnelly, and David Gustafsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 989–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-989-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-989-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new product (Global Forcing Data, GFD) that provides bias-adjusted meteorological forcing data for impact models, such as hydrological models, is presented. The main novelty with the product is the near-real time updating of the data which allows more up-to-date impact modeling. This is performed by combining climatological data sets with climate monitoring data sets. The potential in using the data to initialize hydrological forecasts is further investigated.
Abdelkader Mezghani, Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 905–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes estimated from an ensemble of nine model simulations showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs.
Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, and Rasmus Emil Benestad
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1387–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fine-resolution spatio-temporal precipitation data are important as input to urban hydrological models to assess performance issues under all possible conditions. In the present study synthetic data at very fine spatial and temporal resolution are generated using a stochastic model. Data are generated for both present and future climate conditions. The results show that it is possible to generate spatially distributed data at resolutions relevant for urban hydrology.
J. Olsson, C. B. Uvo, K. Foster, and W. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 659–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-659-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
New approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in spring-flood hindcasts for three Swedish rivers over a 10-year period. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 5 % was indicated, as compared with today's approach.
W. Yang, M. Gardelin, J. Olsson, and T. Bosshard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2037–2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A distribution-based scaling approach was developed and proven useful as a post-process to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) to facilitate the utilisation of climate projections in forest fire risk studies. The result showed reduction of bias in forcing data and an improved description of fire-risk-related indices. Concerning the future climate, southern Sweden is likely to become a more fire-prone region.
B. Eggert, P. Berg, J. O. Haerter, D. Jacob, and C. Moseley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5957–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, 2015
M. A. D. Larsen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. Drews, M. B. Butts, K. H. Jensen, J. H. Christensen, and O. B. Christensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4733–4749, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents results from a novel dynamical coupling between a hydrology model and a regional climate model developed to include a wider range of processes, land-surface/atmosphere interaction and finer spatio-temporal scales. The coupled performance was largely dependent on the data exchange frequency between the two model components, and longer-term precipitation was somewhat improved by the coupled system whereas the short-term dynamics for a range of variables was less accurate.
N. Akhtar, J. Brauch, A. Dobler, K. Béranger, and B. Ahrens
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2189–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2189-2014, 2014
S. Kotlarski, K. Keuler, O. B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, D. Jacob, D. Lüthi, E. van Meijgaard, G. Nikulin, C. Schär, C. Teichmann, R. Vautard, K. Warrach-Sagi, and V. Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
K. Steffens, M. Larsbo, J. Moeys, E. Kjellström, N. Jarvis, and E. Lewan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 479–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-479-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-479-2014, 2014
M. A. Sunyer, H. J. D. Sørup, O. B. Christensen, H. Madsen, D. Rosbjerg, P. S. Mikkelsen, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4323–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, 2013
J. Steppeler, S.-H. Park, and A. Dobler
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 875–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-875-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-875-2013, 2013
P. Berg, R. Döscher, and T. Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 849–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-849-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: The Czech Republic, 1919–2022
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Assessment of windstorm-damage relations in the complex terrain of Norway
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
FOREWARNS: Development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Catchment scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to demonstrate long-term fluctuations in the number, gender and age of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters and falls on ice or snow in relation to selected meteorological, historical and socioeconomic factors, strongly influencing changes in numbers and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of human lives.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years, but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage/no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 has been truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. Satellite All-Sky Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over Northern England to show that this confidence is justified, and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression is used to determine the drought severity and time zones where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations). Moreover, this study also examined the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Cited articles
Adam, J. C. and Lettenmeier, D. P.:
Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias,
J. Geophys. Res.,
108, 4257, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002499, 2003.
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.:
Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
42, 1165–1172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062588, 2015.
Ban, N., Rajczak, J., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.:
Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 61–75, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4339-4, 2020.
Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, O. B., Fernández, J., Fita, L., Frisius, T., Gašparac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.:
The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation,
Clim. Dynam.,
57, 275–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w, 2021.
Belušić, D., de Vries, H., Dobler, A., Landgren, O., Lind, P., Lindstedt, D., Pedersen, R. A., Sánchez-Perrino, J. C., Toivonen, E., van Ulft, B., Wang, F., Andrae, U., Batrak, Y., Kjellström, E., Lenderink, G., Nikulin, G., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Rodríguez-Camino, E., Samuelsson, P., van Meijgaard, E., and Wu, M.: HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020.
Bengtsson, L., Andrae, U., Aspelien, T., Batrak, Y., Calvo, J., de Rooy, W., Gleeson, E., Hansen-Sass, B., Homleid, M., Hortal, M., Ivarsson, K.-I., Lenderink, G., Niemelä, S., Nielsen, K. P., Onvlee, J., Rontu, L., Samuelsson, P., Muñoz, D. S., Subias, A., Tijm, S., Toll, V., Yang, X., and Køltzow, M. Ø.:
The HARMONIE–AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP System,
Mon. Weather Rev.,
145, 1919–1935, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0417.1, 2017.
Beranová, R., Kyselý, J., and Hanel, M.:
Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations,
Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
132, 515–527, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0, 2018.
Berg, P., Norin, L., and Olsson, J.:
Creation of a high resolution precipitation data set by merging gridded gauge data and radar observations for Sweden,
J. Hydrol.,
541, 6–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.031, 2016.
Berg, P., Christensen, O. B., Klehmet, K., Lenderink, G., Olsson, J., Teichmann, C., and Yang, W.: Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11∘ ensemble at an hourly resolution, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019.
Berthou, S., Kendon, E., Chan, S., Ban, N., Leutwyler, D., Schär, C., and Fosser, G.:
Pan-European climate at convection-permitting scale: a model intercomparison study,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 35–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4114-6, 2020.
Boberg, F., Berg, P., Thejll, P., Gutowski, W. J., and Christensen, J. H.:
Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models,
Clim. Dynam.,
35, 1509–1520, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8, 2010.
Brockhaus, P., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.:
Aspects of the diurnal cycle in a regional climate model,
Meteorol. Z.,
17, 433–443, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0316, 2008.
Carver, G.: OpenIFS Home, 2020, https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/OIFS, last access: 23 February 2022.
Caillaud, C., Somot, S., Alias, A., Bernard-Bouissières, I., Fumière, Q., Seity, Y., and Ducrocq, V.:
Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model,
Clim. Dynam.,
56, 1717–1752, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y, 2021.
Chen, C.-T. and Knutson, T.:
On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from climate models,
J. Climate,
21, 1605–1621, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1494.1, 2008.
Christensen, J. and Christensen, O.:
Severe summertime flooding in Europe,
Nature,
421, 805–806, https://doi.org/10.1038/421805a, 2003.
Christensen, J. H., Kjellström, E., Giorgi, F., Lenderink, G., and Rummukainen, M.:
Weight assignment in Regional Climate Models,
Clim. Res.,
44, 179–194, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00916, 2010.
Coles, S.:
An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values,
Springer-Verlag, London, Berlin, Heidelberg, 209 pp., 2001.
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): E-OBS daily gridded meteorological data for Europe from 1950 to present derived from in-situ observations, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.151d3ec6, 2020.
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Nordic gridded temperature and precipitation data from 1971 to present derived from in-situ observations, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e8f4a10c, 2021.
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, N., Bastin, S., Belda, M., Belusic, D., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Cardoso, R., Davolio, S., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Fita, L., Fumiere, Q., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Heinzeller, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jacob, D., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E., Khodayar, S., Kunstmann, H., Knist, S., Lavín-Gullón, A., Lind, P., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Marelle, L., van Meijgaard, E., Milovac, J., Myhre, G., Panitz, H., Piazza, M., Raffa, M., Raub, T., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Sieck, K., Soares, P., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., de Vries, H., and Warrach-Sagi, K.:
A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 3–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8, 2020.
Cornes, R., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.:
An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
123, 9381–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2020.
Crespi, A., Lussana, C., Brunetti, M., Dobler, A., Maugeri, M., and Tveito, O. E.:
High-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies over Norway (1981–2010): joining numerical model data sets and in situ observations,
Int. J. Climatol.,
39, 2057–2070, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5933, 2019.
Crossett, C. C., Betts, A. K., Dupigny-Giroux, L.-A. L., and Bomblies, A.:
Evaluation of Daily Precipitation from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis against GHCN Observations in the Northeastern United States,
Climate,
8, 148, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8120148, 2020.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J., Park, B., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J., and Vitart, F.:
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Denis, B., Laprise, R., Caya, D., and Côté, J.:
Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: the Big-Brother Experiment,
Clim. Dynam.,
18, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0201-0, 2002.
Dyrrdal, A.: Annual maximum daily precipitation for the Nordic-Baltic countries, NIRD [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2020.00023, 2020.
Du, H., Alexander, L., Donat, M., Lippmann, T., Srivastava, A., Salinger, J., Kruger, A., Choi, G., He, H. S., Fujibe, F., Rusticucci, M., Nandintsetseg, B., Manzanas, R., Rehman, S., Abbas, F., Zhai, P., Yabi, I., Stambaugh, M. C., Wang, S., Batbold, A., de Oliveira, P. T., Adrees, M., Hou, W., Zong, S., Santos e Silva, C. M. S., Lucio, P. S., and Wu, F.:
Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
46, 6041–6049, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl081898, 2019.
Dyrrdal, A., Olsson, J., Médus, E., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Post, P., Aņiskeviča, S., Førland, E. J., Thorndahl, S., Lennart, W., Mačiulytė, V., and Mäkelä, A.:
Observed changes in heavy daily precipitation over the Nordic-Baltic region,
J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud.,
38, 100965, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100965, 2021.
Eggert, B., Berg, P., Haerter, J. O., Jacob, D., and Moseley, C.: Temporal and spatial scaling impacts on extreme precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5957–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, 2015.
Fosser, G., Khodayar, S., and Berg, P.:
Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation,
Clim. Dynam.,
44, 45–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2242-1, 2015.
Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. P., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro, S., Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E. J., Lewis, E., Schär, C., Sharma, A., Villarini, G., Wasko, C., and Zhang, X.:
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes,
Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.,
2, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6, 2021.
Førland, E. J., Alexandersson, H., Drebs, A., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Vedin, H., and Tveito, O. E.:
Trends in maximum 1-day precipitation in the Nordic region, MET Norway report 14/98, 53 pp.,
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 1998.
Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J., and Vidale, P.:
Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
111, D06105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005965, 2006.
Fumière, Q., Déqué, M., Nuissier, O., Somot, S., Alias, A., Caillaud, C., Laurantin, O., and Seity, Y.:
Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8, 2020.
Gregersen, I., Sørup, H., Madsen, H., Rosbjerg, D., Mikkelsen, P., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.:
Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales,
Climatic Change,
118, 783–797, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0, 2013.
Hanel, M. and Buishand, T.:
On the value of hourly precipitation extremes in regional climate model simulations,
J. Hydrol.,
393, 265–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.024, 2010.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2018 (updated 2022).
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.:
The ERA5 global reanalysis,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
HIRLAM: Access to the models, http://hirlam.org/index.php/hirlam-programme-53/access-to-the-models, last access: 23 February 2022.
Hofstra, N., New, M., and McSweeney, C.:
The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data,
Clim. Dynam.,
35, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0698-1, 2010.
Hu, G. and Franzke, C. L. E.:
Evaluation of daily precipitation extremes in reanalysis and gridded observation-based data sets over Germany,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
47, e2020GL089624, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089624, 2020.
Johansson, B. and Chen, D.:
The influence of wind and topography on precipitation distribution in Sweden: statistical analysis and modelling,
Int. J. Climatol.,
23, 1523–1535, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.951, 2003.
Kendon, E., Roberts, N., Fowler, H., Roberts, M., Chan, S., and Senior, C.:
Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model,
Nat. Clim. Change,
4, 570–576, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2258, 2014.
Kendon, E., Ban, N., Roberts, N., Fowler, H., Roberts, M., Chan, S., Evans, J., Fosser, G., and Wilkinson, J.:
Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
98, 79–93, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1, 2017.
Kotlarski, S., Szabó, P., Herrera, S., Räty, O., Keuler, K., Soares, P. M., Cardoso, R. M., Bosshard, T., Pagé, C., Boberg, F., Gutiérrez, J. M., Isotta, F. A., Jaczewski, A., Kreienkamp, F., Liniger, M. A., Lussana, C., and Pianko-Kluczyńska, K.:
Observational uncertainty and Regional Climate Model Evaluation: A pan-European Perspective,
Int. J. Climatol.,
39, 3730–3749, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5249, 2019.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., and Shin, Y.:
Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,
J. Econometrics,
54, 159–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y, 1992.
Landgren, O.:
Impacts on Norwegian coastal precipitation by aerosol forcing, conference presentation,
Joint 30th ALADIN Workshop and HIRLAM ASM 2020, Online, 30 April–4 March 2020, http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/aladin/IMG/pdf/landgren_hirlam-asm_2020-04-01_impacts_on_norwegian_coastal_precipitation_by_aerosol_forcing.pdf (last access: 23 February 2022), 2020.
Lantsheer, F.: About the HIRLAM programme, http://hirlam.org/index.php/hirlam-programme-53 (last access: 23 February 2022), 2016.
Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E.:
Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
5, 025208, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025208, 2010.
Leutwyler, D., Lüthi, D., Ban, N., Fuhrer, O., and Schär, C.:
Evaluation of the convection-resolving climate modeling approach on continental scales,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
122, 5237–5258, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd026013, 2017.
Lind, P., Lindstedt, D., Kjellström, E., and Jones, C.:
Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over Central Europe in a Suite of High-Resolution Climate Models,
J. Climate,
29, 3501–3518, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0463.1, 2016.
Lind, P., Belušić, D., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Landgren, O., Lindstedt, D., Matte, D., Pedersen, R. A., Toivonen, E., and Wang, F.:
Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 1893–1912, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3, 2020.
Lindstedt, D., Lind, P., Kjellström, E., and Jones, C.:
A new regional climate model operating at the meso-gamma scale: performance over Europe,
Tellus A,
67, 24138, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.24138, 2015.
Lucas-Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., and Caillaud, C.:
Convection-permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps,
WIREs Clim. Change,
12, e731, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.731, 2021.
Lundquist, J., Hughes, M., Gutmann, E., and Kapnick, S.:
Our skill in modeling mountain rain and snow is bypassing the skill of our observational networks,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
100, 2473–2490, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0001.1, 2019.
Lussana, C., Saloranta, T., Skaugen, T., Magnusson, J., Tveito, O. E., and Andersen, J.: seNorge2 daily precipitation, an observational gridded dataset over Norway from 1957 to the present day, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-235-2018, 2018a.
Lussana, C., Tveito, O. E., and Uboldi, F.:
Three-dimensional spatial interpolation of 2 m temperature over Norway,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
144, 344–364, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3208, 2018b.
Lussana, C., Tveito, O. E., Dobler, A., and Tunheim, K.: seNorge_2018, daily precipitation, and temperature datasets over Norway, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1531–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1531-2019, 2019.
Lutz, J., Grinde, L., and Dyrrdal, A. V.:
Estimating Rainfall Design Values for the City of Oslo, Norway—Comparison of Methods and Quantification of Uncertainty,
Water,
12, 1735, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061735, 2020.
Martins, E. S. and Stedinger, J. R.:
Generalized maximum-likelihood generalized extreme-value quantile estimators for hydrologic data,
Water Resour. Res.,
36, 737–744, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900330, 2000.
Matte, D., Laprise, R., Thériault, J. M., and Lucas-Picher, P.:
Spatial spin-up of fine scales in a regional climate model simulation driven by low-resolution boundary conditions,
Clim. Dynam.,
49, 563–574, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3358-2, 2017.
Meredith, E. P, Ulbrich, U., Rust, H. W., and Truhetz, H.:
Present and future diurnal hourly precipitation in 0.11∘ EURO-CORDEX models and at convection-permitting resolution,
Environ. Res. Commun.,
3, 055002, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abf15e, 2021.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute: Norwegian observational gridded climate datasets, MET Norway Thredds Service [data set], https://thredds.met.no/thredds/catalog/senorge/seNorge2/catalog.html, last access: 23 February 2022.
Olsson, J., Pers, C., Bengtsson, L., Pechlivanidis, I., Berg, P., and Körnich, H.:
Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmö City, Sweden,
Environ. Model. Softw.,
93, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.025, 2017.
Olsson, J., Du, Y., An, D., Uvo, C. B., Sörensen, J., Toivonen, E., Belušić, D., and Dobler, A.:
An Analysis of (Sub-)Hourly Rainfall in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations Over Southern Sweden From a User's Perspective,
Front. Earth Sci.,
9, 681312, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.681312, 2021a.
Olsson, J., Berg, P., and van de Beek, R.: Visualization of radar-observed rainfall for hydrological risk assessment, Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 59–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-59-2021, 2021b.
Pavlovic, S., Perica, S., St Laurent, M., and Mejía, A.:
Intercomparison of Selected Fixed-Area Areal Reduction Factor Methods,
J. Hydrol.,
537, 419–430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.027, 2016.
Perkins, S. E. and Pitman, A. J.:
Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia?,
Climatic Change,
93, 527–558, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9502-1, 2009.
Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Mishra, A. N., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Soares, P. M., Truhetz, H., and Vergara-Temprado, J.:
The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: Historical and future simulations of precipitation,
Clim. Dynam.,
56, 3581–3602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4, 2021.
Prein, A. F. and Gobiet, A.:
Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis,
Int. J. Climatol.,
37, 305–327, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4706, 2017.
Prein, A., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., Lipzig, N., and Leung, R.:
A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges,
Rev. Geophys.,
53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015.
Rajczak, J. and Schär, C.:
Projections of future precipitation extremes over Europe: a multi-model assessment of climate simulations,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
122, 773–10800, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027176, 2017.
Rajczak, J., Pall, P., and Schär, C.:
Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine region,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 3610–3626, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50297, 2013.
Risser, M. D. and Wehner, M. F.: The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 115–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-115-2020, 2020.
Rubel, F. and Hantel, M.:
BALTEX 1/6-degree daily precipitation climatology 1996–1998,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys.,
77, 155–166, https://doi.org/10.1007/s007030170024, 2001.
Schär, C., Ban, N., Fischer, E. M., Rajczak, J., Schmidli, J., Frei, C., Giorgi, F., Karl, T. R., Kendon, E. J., Tank, A. M., O'Gorman, P. A., Sillmann, J., Zhang, X., and Zwiers, F. W.:
Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events,
Climatic Change,
137, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1669-2, 2016.
Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P., Bouttier, F., Lac, C., and Masson, V.:
The AROME-France convective-scale operational model,
Mon. Weather Rev.,
139, 976–991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3425.1, 2011.
SURFEX: Welcome to the SURFEX Home Page, https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/, last access: 23 February 2022.
Termonia, P., Fischer, C., Bazile, E., Bouyssel, F., Brožková, R., Bénard, P., Bochenek, B., Degrauwe, D., Derková, M., El Khatib, R., Hamdi, R., Mašek, J., Pottier, P., Pristov, N., Seity, Y., Smolíková, P., Španiel, O., Tudor, M., Wang, Y., Wittmann, C., and Joly, A.: The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 257–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-257-2018, 2018.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.:
The changing character of precipitation,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
84, 1205–1218, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003.
Tveito, O. E. and Lussana, C.:
The Nordic Gridded Climate Dataset stable release, ECMWF Copernicus note, 29 pp., Copernicus Climate Change Service,
https://surfobs.climate.copernicus.eu/documents/C3S_M311a_Lot4.2.3.3_201809_report_stable_release_v1.pdf (last access: 23 February 2022), 2018.
Tveito, O. E., Bjørdal, I., Skjelvåg, A. O., and Aune, B.:
A GIS-based agro-ecological decision system based on gridded climatology,
Meteorol. Appl.,
12, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482705001490, 2005.
Toivonen, E., Hippi, M., Korhonen, H., Laaksonen, A., Kangas, M., and Pietikäinen, J.-P.: The road weather model RoadSurf (v6.60b) driven by the regional climate model HCLIM38: evaluation over Finland, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3481–3501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, 2019.
van den Besselaar, E. J. M., Klein Tank, A. M. G., and Buishand, T.:
Trends in European precipitation extremes over 1951-2010,
Int. J. Climatol.,
33, 2682–2689, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3619, 2013.
Vejen, F., Vedel, H., and Scharling, M.:
Korrektion af observeret nedbør i Danmark, DMI Report 21–39, 19 pp.,
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/2021/DMI_21-39_-_Korrektion_af_observeret_nedboer_i_Danmark.pdf (last access: 23 February 2022), 2021.
Wang, P. R. and Scharling, M.:
Klimagrid Danmark: Dokumentation og validering af Klimagrid Danmark i 1 × 1 km opløsning, DMI-Technical Report 10–13, 39 pp.,
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/TR/tr10-13.pdf (last access: 23 February 2022), 2010.
Westra, S., Alexander, L. V., and Zwiers, F. W.:
Global Increasing Trends in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation,
J. Climate,
26, 3904–3918, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1, 2013.
Westra, S., Fowler, H., Evans, J., Alexander, L., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E., Lenderink, G., and Roberts, N.:
Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall,
Rev. Geophys.,
52, 522–555, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464, 2014.
Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint