Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022
Research article
 | 
09 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 09 Aug 2022

Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland

Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Cited articles

Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Tank, A. M. K., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Kumar, K. R., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D05109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006. a
Aznar-Siguan, G. and Bresch, D. N.: CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3085–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019, 2019. a, b, c
BAG: Nationale Strategie zur Prävention der saisonalen Grippe (GRIPS) 2015–2018, Tech. rep., Bundesamt für Gesundheit, https://www.bag.admin.ch/dam/bag/de/dokumente/mt/i-und-i/grips/strategie-grips.pdf.download.pdf/Strategie GRIPS.pdf (last access: July 2022), 2018. a, b
BFS: Statistik der Unternehmensstruktur (STATENT), Beschäftigte und Arbeitsstätten: Geodaten, https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/dienstleistungen/geostat/geodaten-bundesstatistik/arbeitsstaetten-beschaeftigung/statistik-unternehmensstruktur-statent-ab-2011.assetdetail.9526894.html (last access: December 2020), 2017. a
BFS: Statistik der Bevölkerung und Haushalte (STATPOP), Geodaten 2018, https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/dienstleistungen/geostat/geodaten-bundesstatistik/gebaeude-wohnungen-haushalte-personen/bevoelkerung-haushalte-ab-2010.assetdetail.9947069.html (last access: December 2020), 2018. a
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We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
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