Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Integrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policymaking in the Netherlands
Marjolein J. P. Mens
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of water resources management, Deltares, Delft, the
Netherlands
Gigi van Rhee
Stratelligence, Leiden, the Netherlands
Femke Schasfoort
Department of water resources management, Deltares, Delft, the
Netherlands
Neeltje Kielen
Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,
Lelystad, the Netherlands
Related authors
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Cited articles
Abrahamse, A. H., Baarse, G., and Van Beek, E.: Policy analysis of water
management for the Netherlands. Vol XII: Model for regional hydrology,
agricultural water demands and damages from droughts and salinity,
N-1500/12-NETH for Rijkswaterstaat,
https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid:9de09c40-3ef7-4bd2-9b17-a6b2bce7522c
(last access: 13 December 2021), 1982.
Ajami, N. K., Hornberger, G. M., and Sunding, D. L.: Sustainable water
resource management under hydrological uncertainty, Water Resour. Res, 44,
11406, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006736, 2008.
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda,
M., Knutson, C., Smith, K., Wall, N., Fuchs, B., Crossman, N., and Overton,
I.: Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider consideration of
environment and society: Drought indicators revisited, Wiley Interdiscip.
Rev. Water, 3, 516–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1154, 2016.
Bakker, A.: Time series transformation tool version 3.1 Description of the
program to generate time series consistent with the KNMI'14 climate
scenarios, De Bilt, the Netherlands,
https://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/pdf/bibliotheek/knmipubTR/TR349.pdf (last access: 13 December 2021), 2015.
Bartkowski, B., Lienhoop, N., Hansjürgens, B., Bartkowski, B., Lienhoop,
N., and Hansjürgens, B.: Capturing the complexity of biodiversity: A
critical review of economic valuation studies of biological diversity, Ecol.
Econ., 113, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLECON.2015.02.023, 2015.
Beersma, J. J. and Buishand, T. A.: Joint probability of precipitation and
discharge deficits in the Netherlands, Water Resour. Res., 40, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003265, 2004.
Bierkens, M. F. P., Reinhard, S., de Bruijn, J. A., Veninga, W., and Wada,
Y.: The Shadow Price of Irrigation Water in Major Groundwater-Depleting
Countries, Water Resour. Res., 55, 4266–4287, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023086,
2019.
Blauhut, V., Gudmundsson, L., and Stahl, K.: Towards pan-European drought
risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought
impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014008,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008, 2015.
Briene, M., Van Hussen, K., and Schellekens, J.: Welvaartseffecten waterbeschikbaarheid op de sectoren drinkwater, energie en industrie [Welfare effects of droughts
on drinking water supply, energy supply and industrial use], Ecorys,
Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 2018 (in Dutch).
Briene, M., Van der Kooij, Susanne, Swart, L., Snippen, E., Van der Vat, M.,
Schasfoort, F., Mens, M., and Stokkers, R.: Validatie Effectmodule Landbouw [Validation of the agricultural
drought impact model against the 2018 drought], Ecorys, Rotterdam, 2019 (in Dutch).
Byers, E. A., Coxon, G., Freer, J., and Hall, J. W.: Drought and climate
change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great
Britain, Nat. Commun., 11, 2239,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2, 2020.
Carrão, H., Naumann, G., and Barbosa, P.: Mapping global patterns of
drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of
hazard, exposure and vulnerability, Global Environ. Chang., 39, 108–124,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2016.04.012, 2016.
Connell-Buck, C. R., Medellín-Azuara, J., Lund, J. R., and Madani, K.:
Adapting California's water system to warm vs. dry climates, Clim. Chang.,
109, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-011-0302-7, 2011.
CPB/PBL: The Netherlands in 2030 and 2050: two scenarios, Den
Haag, the Netherlands,
https://www.wlo2015.nl/wp-content/uploads/PBL_2015_WLO_Nederland-in-2030-en-2050_1558.pdf (last access: 31 March 2022), 2015 (in Dutch).
Crausbay, S. D., Ramirez, A. R., Carter, S. L., Cross, M. S., Hall, K. R.,
Bathke, D. J., Betancourt, J. L., Colt, S., Cravens, A. E., Dalton, M. S.,
Dunham, J. B., Hay, L. E., Hayes, M. J., McEvoy, J., McNutt, C. A., Moritz,
M. A., Nislow, K. H., Raheem, N., and Sanford, T.: Defining Ecological
Drought for the Twenty-First Century, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98,
2543–2550, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0292.1, 2017.
Groot, S., Vermeulen, C.-J., Schasfoort, F., van der Vat, M., and Diermanse,
F.: An approach for drought risk analysis: summary report, Deltares and HKV, Delft, https://www.stowa.nl/sites/default/files/assets/NIEUWS/Nieuwsdocs 2019/20191107 Synthesedocument IMPREX.pdf (last access: 31 March 2022), 2020 (in Dutch).
Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C. C., Min, A., Renaud, F. G., Walz,
Y., Siebert, S., and Sebesvari, Z.: Drought vulnerability and risk
assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda,
Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 083002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AB225D, 2019.
Hall, J. and Borgomeo, E.: Risk-based principles for defining and managing
water security, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 371, 20120407,
https://doi.org/10.1098/RSTA.2012.0407, 2013.
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, in press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/, last access: 31 March 2022.
Lenderink, G., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Klein Tank, A. M. G., van
Oldenborgh, G. J., van Meijgaard, E., de Vries, H., and Beersma, J. J.:
Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using
resampling of climate model output, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 115008,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008, 2014.
Logar, I. and van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.: Methods to Assess Costs of Drought
Damages and Policies for Drought Mitigation and Adaptation: Review and
Recommendations, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 1707–1720,
https://doi.org/10.1007/S11269-012-0119-9, 2012.
Mens, M., Minnema, B., Overmars, K., and van den Hurk, B.: Dilemmas in
developing models for long-term drought risk management: the case of the
National Water Model of the Netherlands, Environ. Modell. Softw., 143, 105100,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105100, 2021.
Meza, I., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Siebert, S., Ghazaryan, G., Nouri, H., Dubovyk,
O., Gerdener, H., Herbert, C., Kusche, J., Popat, E., Rhyner, J., Jordaan,
A., Walz, Y., and Hagenlocher, M.: Drought risk for agricultural systems in
South Africa: Drivers, spatial patterns, and implications for drought risk
management, Sci. Total Environ., 799, 149505,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2021.149505, 2021.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol.,
391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2010.07.012, 2010.
Mulder, H. M. and Veldhuizen, A. A.: Agricultural Cost Model AGRICOM: theory
and user manual, Wageningen, the Netherlands,
http://www.alterra.wur.nl (last access: 13 December 2021), 2014 (in Dutch).
Musolino, D. A., Massarutto, A., and de Carli, A.: Does drought always cause
economic losses in agriculture? An empirical investigation on the
distributive effects of drought events in some areas of Southern Europe,
Sci. Total Environ., 633, 1560–1570, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.02.308,
2018.
Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., Garrote, L., Iglesias, A., and Vogt, J.: Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1591–1604, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1591-2014, 2014.
Naumann, G., Vargas, W. M., Barbosa, P., Blauhut, V., Spinoni, J., and Vogt,
J. V.: Dynamics of Socioeconomic Exposure, Vulnerability and Impacts of
Recent Droughts in Argentina, Geosci., 2019, 39,
https://doi.org/10.3390/GEOSCIENCES9010039, 2019.
NHI: LHM, http://www.nhi.nu/nl/index.php/modellen/lhm/, last access: 25 May 2022a.
NHI: Data, http://www.nhi.nu/nl/index.php/data/, last access: 25 May 2022b.
Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van der Wiel, K., Wanders, N., and Jan van
Oldenborgh, G.: Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought
trends in the Netherlands, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 94081,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab97ca, 2020.
Polman, N., Peerlings, J., and Reinhard, S.: Development of a tool to
estimate the economic effects of agricultural yield losses due to drought, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 2017 (in Dutch).
Polman, N., Peerlings, J., and van der Vat, M.: Economische effecten van droogte voor landbouw in Nederland: samenvatting, Wageningen Economic Research No. 2019-038. Wageningen, the Netherlands, https://doi.org/10.18174/474376, 2019 (in Dutch).
Rijkswaterstaat: BIVAS tool, BIVAS Appl,
https://bivas.chartasoftware.com/Home/BIVASApplicatie (last access: 31 March 2022), 2019.
Rossi, G. and Cancelliere, A.: Managing drought risk in water supply systems
in Europe: a review, Int. J. Water Resour. Dev., 29,
272–289, https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2012.713848, 2013.
Rossi, G., Cancelliere, A., and Giuliano, G.: Case Study: Multicriteria
Assessment of Drought Mitigation Measures, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag.,
131, 449–457, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2005)131:6(449), 2005.
Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Fereres, E. and Raes, D.: Crop Yield Response to Water, https://www.fao.org/3/i2800e/i2800e00.htm (last access: 13 December 2021), 2012.
Van Asseldonk, M., Stokkers, R., and Jager, J.: Economic effects of 2018 and 2019 drought
on agriculture and dairy farms, Wageningen, the Netherlands, https://edepot.wur.nl/541243 (last access: 31 March 2022), 2021. (in Dutch),
van der Vat, M. , Schasfoort, F., Ter Maat, J., Mens, M., Delsman, J. R., Kok, S., van Vuren, S., van der Zwet, J., Wegman, C., Polman, N., and Ruijgrok, E.: Risicobenadering voor de Nederlandse zoetwatervoorziening (in Dutch), Delft, the Netherlands, https://edepot.wur.nl/405557, 2016.
Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Stahl, K.,
Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M.,
Uijlenhoet, R., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B.,
Wagener, T., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in
the Anthropocene, Nat. Geosci., 9, 89–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646,
2016.
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Wada, Y., de Moel, H., Kummu, M., Eisner, S., Aerts, J.
C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Changing mechanism of global water scarcity
events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic
variability, Global Environ. Chang., 32, 18–29,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.02.011, 2015.
Victor, P. A.: Cents and nonsense: A critical appraisal of the monetary
valuation of nature, Ecosyst. Serv., 42, 101076,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOSER.2020.101076, 2020.
Vogt, J. V., Naumann, G., Masante, D., Spinoni, J., Cammalleri, C., Erian, W., Pischke, F., Pulwarty, R., and Barbosa, P.: Drought Risk Assessment and Management. A conceptual framework, Joint Research Centre, Luxembourg, https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113937 (last access: 13 December 2021), 2018.
Wendt, D. E., Bloomfield, J. P., Van Loon, A. F., Garcia, M., Heudorfer, B., Larsen, J., and Hannah, D. M.: Evaluating integrated water management strategies to inform hydrological drought mitigation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021.
Wilhite, D. A., Hayes, M. J., Knutson, C., and Smith, K. H.: Planning for
drought: moving from crisis to risk management, JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour.
As., 36, 697–710, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1752-1688.2000.TB04299.X, 2000.
Wilhite, D. A., Sivakumar, M. V. K., and Pulwarty, R.: Managing drought risk
in a changing climate: The role of national drought policy, Weather Clim.
Extrem., 3, 4–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2014.01.002, 2014.
Wolters, H., Hunink, J., Delsman, J., Lange, G. de, Schasfoort, F., Mark, R.
van der, Gert Jan van den Born, E. D., Rijken, B., and Reinhard, S.:
Deltascenarios: four future projections for the Delta Program,
Delft, the Netherlands, https://bit.ly/3qQLyfI (last access: 31 March 2022),
2018 (in Dutch).
Young, R. A. and Loomis, J. B.: Determining the economic value of water: Concepts and methods, 2nd edition, Routledge, New York, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203784112, 2014.
Zhang, H., Ding, J., Wang, Y., Zhou, D., and Zhu, Q.: Investigation about the
correlation and propagation among meteorological, agricultural and
groundwater droughts over humid and arid/semi-arid basins in China, J.
Hydrol., 603, 127007, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2021.127007, 2021.
Short summary
Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint