Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021

Special issue: Drought vulnerability, risk, and impact assessments: bridging...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021
Research article
19 Nov 2021
Research article | 19 Nov 2021

Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Stefano Terzi et al.

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Cited articles

Alpine convention: Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation at the local level in the Alps, Permanent Secretariat of the Alpine Convention, Innsbruck, 44, 2013. 
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005. 
Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B. M., and Walker, S. C.: Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4, J. Stat. Softw., 67, 1–48, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v067.i01, 2015. 
Bellin, A., Majone, B., Cainelli, O., Alberici, D., and Villa, F.: A continuous coupled hydrological and water resources management model, Environ. Model. Softw., 75, 176–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.013, 2016. 
Beniston, M. and Stoffel, M.: Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources, Sci. Total Environ., 493, 1129–1137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.122, 2014. 
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This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
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