Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021
Research article
 | 
19 Nov 2021
Research article |  | 19 Nov 2021

Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto

Related authors

More intense heatwaves under drier conditions: a compound event analysis in the Adige River basin (Eastern Italian Alps)
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Alice Crespi, Elena Maines, Stefano Terzi, and Massimiliano Pittore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1347,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1347, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
An inventory of Alpine drought impact reports to explore past droughts in a mountain region
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? Case study Berlin
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, Angela Wendnagel-Beck, and Emmanouil Panagiotakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2481–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, 2025
Short summary
Modelling flood losses of micro-businesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2437–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, 2025
Short summary
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: a watershed-level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2351–2369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, 2025
Short summary
An evaluation of the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2097–2113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Alpine convention: Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation at the local level in the Alps, Permanent Secretariat of the Alpine Convention, Innsbruck, 44, 2013. 
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005. 
Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B. M., and Walker, S. C.: Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4, J. Stat. Softw., 67, 1–48, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v067.i01, 2015. 
Bellin, A., Majone, B., Cainelli, O., Alberici, D., and Villa, F.: A continuous coupled hydrological and water resources management model, Environ. Model. Softw., 75, 176–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.013, 2016. 
Beniston, M. and Stoffel, M.: Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources, Sci. Total Environ., 493, 1129–1137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.122, 2014. 
Download
Short summary
This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint