Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Terzi, Stefano; Sušnik, Janez; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021

Articles | Volume 21, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Drought vulnerability, risk, and impact assessments: bridging...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 11

Research article

|

19 Nov 2021

Research article |

| 19 Nov 2021

Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021-supplement

Model code and software

Ste-rzi/SGiustina_future_SDM: S.Giustina outflow and volume data analysis (v1.0) S. Terzi https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5701950

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Short summary

This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.