Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study
Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin St, Sheffield City Centre, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK
No articles found.
Mohammad Kazem Sharifian, Georges Kesserwani, Alovya Ahmed Chowdhury, Jeffrey Neal, and Paul Bates
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2391–2413,Short summary
This paper describes a new release of the LISFLOOD-FP model for fast and efficient flood simulations. It features a new non-uniform grid generator that uses multiwavelet analyses to sensibly coarsens the resolutions where the local topographic variations are smooth. Moreover, the model is parallelised on the graphical processing units (GPUs) to further boost computational efficiency. The performance of the model is assessed for five real-world case studies, noting its potential applications.
James Shaw, Georges Kesserwani, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, and Mohammad Kazem Sharifian
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3577–3602,Short summary
LISFLOOD-FP has been extended with new shallow-water solvers – DG2 and FV1 – for modelling all types of slow- or fast-moving waves over any smooth or rough surface. Using GPU parallelisation, FV1 is faster than the simpler ACC solver on grids with millions of elements. The DG2 solver is notably effective on coarse grids where river channels are hard to capture, improving predicted river levels and flood water depths. This marks a new step towards real-world DG2 flood inundation modelling.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management AspectsProbabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme eventsPublic intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behaviorAn assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous areaReview article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurityDesign and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan regionIdentifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamPerformance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residentsDifferences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levelsQuantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, NepalReview article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan AfricaInvited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modellingClassifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacementAssessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regionsTsunami risk perception in central and southern ItalyBrief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood eventMulti-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic modelsBuilding-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, ItalyProcess-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sectorDynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, ChinaIntegrated seismic risk assessment in NepalModeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally-applicable framework: A case study in the Sofala regionMachine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditionsReliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern GermanyInvited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-productionInvited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development GoalsEstimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in MongoliaSurveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparabilityComparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacitiesProjected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in SwitzerlandFull-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forestsPredicting drought and subsidence risks in FranceScenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, PeruThe determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in ChinaStrategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysisRisk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, FranceInvited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basinRapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster managementINSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast mapsInvited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessmentEducation, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate changeLarge-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regionsRegional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane riskBrief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System SciencesInvited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilienceBangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal floodingA geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683,Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547,Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423,Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354,Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286,Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138,Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990,Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953,Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931,Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731,Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505,Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259,Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158,Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64,Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138,Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838,Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829,Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569,Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412,Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283,Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230,Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
We present a globally-applicable framework for compound flood risk assessments using combined hydrodynamic, impact and statistical modeling. Our results show the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039,Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979,Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890,Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790,Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770,Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672,Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588,Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541,Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443,Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418,Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199,Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144,Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029,Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972,Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823,Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794,Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761,Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518,Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497,Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232,Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large scale avalanche modeling method with a state of the art probilistic risk tool. Over 40'000 individual avalanches were simulated and a building dataset with over 13'000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072,Short summary
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993,Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930,Short summary
Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812,Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751,Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344,Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Abebe, Y. A., Ghorbani, A., Nikolic, I., Manojlovic, N., Gruhn, A., and Vojinovic, Z.: The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020.
Aboelata, M. and Bowles, D. S.: LIFESim: A tool for estimating and reducing life-loss resulting from dam and levee failures, in: Proceedings of the Association of State Dam Safety Officials “Dam Safety 2008” Conference, Indian Wells, California, 7–11 September 2008, 533–574, available at: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.155.2659 (last access: 15 January 2021), 2008.
Aerts, J. C.: Integrating agent-based approaches with flood risk models: a review and perspective, Water Secur., 11, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100076, 2020.
Aerts, J. C., Botzen, W. J., Clarke, K. C., Cutter, S. L., Hall, J. W., Merz, B., Michel-Kerjan, E., Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., and Kunreuther, H.: Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 193–199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1, 2018.
Alonso Vicario, S., Mazzoleni, M., Bhamidipati, S., Gharesifard, M., Ridolfi, E., Pandolfo, C., and Alfonso, L.: Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 65, 2359–2375, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1810254, 2020.
An, L., Grimm, V., and Turner II, B. L.: Meeting grand challenges in agent-based models, J. Artif. Soc. Social Simul., 23, 13, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4012, 2020.
Arrighi, C., Oumeraci, H., and Castelli, F.: Hydrodynamics of pedestrians' instability in floodwaters, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 515–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-515-2017, 2017.
Becker, J. S., Taylor, H. L., Doody, B. J., Wright, K. C., Gruntfest, E., and Webber, D.: A review of people's behavior in and around floodwater, Weather Clim. Soc., 7, 321–332, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00030.1, 2015.
Bernardini, G. and Quagliarini, E.: How to account for the human motion to improve flood risk assessment in urban areas, Water, 12, 1316, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051316, 2020.
Bernardini, G., Postacchini, M., Quagliarini, E., Brocchini, M., Cianca, C., and D'Orazio, M.: A preliminary combined simulation tool for the risk assessment of pedestrians' flood-induced evacuation, Environ. Model. Softw., 96, 14–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.007, 2017.
Bernardini, G., Quagliarini, E., D'Orazio, M., and Brocchini, M.: Towards the simulation of flood evacuation in urban scenarios: experiments to estimate human motion speed in floodwaters, Safety Sci., 123, 104563, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2019.104563, 2020.
Bernardini, G., Romano, G., Soldini, L., and Quagliarini, E.: How urban layout and pedestrian evacuation behaviours can influence flood risk assessment in riverine historic built environments, Sustain. Cities Soc., 70, 102876, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102876, 2021.
Bert, F. E., Rovere, S. L., Macal, C. M., North, M. J., and Podestá, G. P.: Lessons from a comprehensive validation of an agent based-model: the experience of the pampas model of argentinean agricultural systems, Ecol. Model., 273, 284–298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.024, 2014.
Bohannon, R. W. and Andrews, A. W.: Normal walking speed: a descriptive meta-analysis, Physiotherapy, 97, 182–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physio.2010.12.004, 2011.
Bring on the sub: Sheffield Wednesday's pitch submerged by flood water: Daily Mail Online, available at: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-464478/Bring-sub-Sheffield-Wednesdays-pitch-submerged-flood-water.html (last access: 14 June 2021), 26 June 2007.
Chanson, H., Brown, R., and McIntosh, D.: Human body stability in floodwaters: the 2011 flood in Brisbane CBD, in: Proceedings of the 5th IAHR International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures, 25–27 June 2014, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2014.48, 2014.
Dawson, R. J., Peppe, R., and Wang, M.: An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management, Nat. Hazards, 59, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9745-4, 2011.
Dias, C., Abd Rahman, N., and Zaiter, A.: Evacuation under flooded conditions: Experimental investigation of the influence of water depth on walking behaviors, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 58, 102192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102192, 2021.
Disabled World: Adult Body Mass Index (BMI) Calculator and Table, Disabled World, available at: https://www.disabled-world.com/calculators-charts/bmi.php (last access: 10 November 2020), 2017.
Dobbs, R. J., Charlett, A., Bowes, S. G., O'neill, C. J. A., Weller, C., Hughes, J., and Dobbs, S. M.: Is this walk normal?, Age Ageing, 22, 27–30, https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/22.1.27, 1993.
Environment Agency: Review of 2007 summer floods, Environment Agency, Almondsbury, Bristol, UK, available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/292924/geho1107bnmi-e-e.pdf (last access: 22 January 2021), 2007.
Fielding, J., Burningham, K., Thrush, D., and Catt, R.: Public response to flood warning: R & D Technical Report SC020116, DEFRA – Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK, available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/602d3a81d3bf7f721c13a3ba/Public_response_to_flood_warning_technical_report.pdf (last access: 21 May 2021), 2007.
Flood and coastal erosion risk management policy statement, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-policy-statement (last access: 3 March 2021), 14 July 2020.
Hamilton, K., Demant, D., Peden, A. E., and Hagger, M. S.: A systematic review of human behaviour in and around floodwater, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 47, 101561, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101561, 2020.
Hazra, A.: Using the confidence interval confidently, J. Thorac. Dis., 9, 4125–4130, https://doi.org/10.21037/jtd.2017.09.14, 2017.
Helbing, D. and Molnar, P.: Social force model for pedestrian dynamics, Phys. Rev. E, 51, 4282, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.51.4282, 1995.
Ishigaki, T., Kawanaka, R., Onishi, Y., Shimada, H., Toda, K., and Baba, Y.: Assessment of safety on evacuating route during underground flooding, in: Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering: Proceedings of 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 141–146, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89465-0, 2009.
Jiang, Y., Chen, B., Li, X., and Ding, Z.: Dynamic navigation field in the social force model for pedestrian evacuation, Appl. Math. Model., 80, 815–826, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2019.10.016, 2020.
Karmakharm, T., Richmond, P., and Romano, D. M.: Agent-based large scale simulation of pedestrians with adaptive realistic navigation vector fields, Theor. Pract. Comput. Graph., 10, 67–74, https://doi.org/10.2312/LocalChapterEvents/TPCG/TPCG10/067-074, 2010.
Kesserwani, G. and Shirvani, M.: The Flood-People simulator and its relevance to the research community, DAFNI [code], available at: https://dafni.ac.uk/project/flood-people-simulator/ (last access: 6 February 2021), 2021.
Kvočka, D., Falconer, R. A., and Bray, M.: Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events, Nat. Hazards, 84, 1569–1599, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2501-z, 2016.
Lange, D.: Share of people who have attended at least two live sports events in the last year in England from May 2018 to May 2020 by age, available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/783771/live-sports-events-spectators-england-by-by-age/ (last access: 3 March 2021), 2020.
Lee, H. K., Hong, W. H., and Lee, Y. H.: Experimental study on the influence of water depth on the evacuation speed of elderly people in flood conditions, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 39, 101198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101198, 2019.
Li, M., Wei, Y., and Xu, Y.: A route navigation algorithm for pedestrian simulation based on grid potential field, Adv. Mech. Eng., 11, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814019897831, 2019.
Lin, J., Zhu, R., Li, N., and Becerik-Gerber, B.: Do people follow the crowd in building emergency evacuation? A cross-cultural immersive virtual reality-based study, Adv. Eng. Informa., 43, 101040, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2020.101040, 2020.
Liu, X. and Lim, S.: Integration of spatial analysis and an agent-based model into evacuation management for shelter assignment and routing, J. Spat. Sci., 61, 283–298, https://doi.org/10.1080/14498596.2016.1147393, 2016.
Lumbroso, D. and Davison, M.: Use of an agent-based model and Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the effectiveness of emergency management interventions to reduce loss of life during extreme floods, J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, S419–S433, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12230, 2018.
Lumbroso, D. and Di Mauro, M.: Recent developments in loss of life and evacuation modelling for flood event management in the UK, WIT Trans. Ecol. Environ., 118, 263–272, https://doi.org/10.2495/FRIAR080251, 2008.
Lumbroso, D., Davison, M., Body, R., and Petkovšek, G.: Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 21–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-21-2021, 2021.
Lumbroso, D. M., Sakamoto, D., Johnstone, W. M., Tagg, A. F., and Lence, B. J.: Development of a life safety model to estimate the risk posed to people by dam failures and floods, Dams Reserv., 21, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.1680/dare.2011.21.1.31, 2011.
Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Imamura, F., Suppasri, A., Muhari, A., and Adriano, B.: Recent advances in agent-based tsunami evacuation simulations: case studies in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan and Peru, Pure Appl. Geophys., 172, 3409–3424, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1105-y, 2015.
Matsuo, K., Natainia, L., and Yamada, F.: Flood and evacuation simulations for urban flooding, in: 5th International Conference on Flood Management, 27–29 September 2011, Tokyo, Japan, 391–398, 2011.
McClymont, K., Morrison, D., Beevers, L., and Carmen, E.: Flood resilience: a systematic review, J. Environ. Plan. Manage., 63, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2019.1641474, 2020.
Milanesi, L., Pilotti, M., and Ranzi, R.: A conceptual model of people's vulnerability to floods, Water Resour. Res., 51, 182–197, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016172, 2015.
Minegishi, Y. and Takeichi, N.: Design guidelines for crowd evacuation in a stadium for controlling evacuee accumulation and sequencing, Jpn. Architect. Rev., 1, 471–485, https://doi.org/10.1002/2475-8876.12042, 2018.
Moftakhari, H. R., AghaKouchak, A., Sanders, B. F., Allaire, M., and Matthew, R. A.: What is nuisance flooding? Defining and monitoring an emerging challenge, Water Resour. Res., 54, 4218–4227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022828, 2018.
Mohler, B. J., Thompson, W. B., Creem-Regehr, S. H., Pick, H. L., and Warren, W. H.: Visual flow influences gait transition speed and preferred walking speed, Exp. Brain Res., 181, 221–228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00221-007-0917-0, 2007.
Musolino, G., Ahmadian, R., Xia, J., and Falconer, R. A.: Mapping the danger to life in flash flood events adopting a mechanics based methodology and planning evacuation routes, J. Flood Risk Manage., 13, e12627, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12627, 2020.
Netzel, L. M., Heldt, S., Engler, S., and Denecke, M.: The importance of public risk perception for the effective management of pluvial floods in urban areas: a case study from Germany, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, 2, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12688, 2021.
Polhill, J. G., Sutherland, L. A., and Gotts, N. M.: Using qualitative evidence to enhance an agent-based modelling system for studying land use change, J. Artif. Soc. Social Simul., 13, 10, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.1563, 2010.
Prentice, A. M.: Body mass index standards for children: are useful for clinicians but not yet for epidemiologists, Br. Med. J. (Clin. Res. Ed.), 317, 1401–1402, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.317.7170.1401, 1998.
Priest, S. J.: Why understanding behaviour matters for flood risk management?, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, e12724, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12724, 2021.
Pugh, W.: Severe flooding near Hillsborough will not stop Sheffield Wednesday's game against Swansea being played tomorrow despite homes nearby being evacuated, available at: https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/10303677 (last access: 3 March 2021), 2019.
Ramsbottom, D., Wade, S., Bain, V., Hassan, M., Penning-Rowsell, E., Wilson, T., Fernandez, A., House, M., and Floyd, P.: Flood risks to people methodology: Phase 2. R & D Technical Report FD2321/TR2, DEFRA – Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK, available at http://sciencesearch.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=FD2321_3436_TRP.pdf (last access: 15 December 2020), 2006.
Rufat, S., Fekete, A., Armaş, I., Hartmann, T., Kuhlicke, C., Prior, T., Thaler, T., and Wisner, B.: Swimming alone? Why linking flood risk perception and behavior requires more than “it's the individual, stupid”, WIREs Water, 7, e1462, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1462, 2020.
Shirvani, M.: Flood-pedestrian simulator video demos, TIB AV-Portal [video], https://doi.org/10.5446/51547, 2021.
Shirvani, M. and Kesserwani, G.: Flood-pedestrian simulator, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4564288, 2021a.
Shirvani, M. and Kesserwani, G.: Outputs of the flood-pedestrian simulator applied to the flooded shopping centre and Hillsborough Stadium test cases, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4576906, 2021b.
Shirvani, M., Kesserwani, G., and Richmond, P.: Agent-based simulator of dynamic flood-people interactions, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, e12695, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12695, 2021.
Shirvani, M., Kesserwani, G., and Richmond, P.: Agent-based modelling of pedestrian responses during flood emergency: mobility behavioural rules and implications for flood risk analysis, J. Hydroinform., 22, 1078–1092, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2020.031, 2020.
Statista Research Department: Europe: distribution of football fans in 2016, by country and gender, available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/658959/europe-football-fans-by-country-and-gender/ (last access: 3 March 2021), 2016.
Still, G. K.: Crowd Safety and Crowd Risk Analysis, Crowd Risk Analysis Ltd, available at: https://www.gkstill.com/Support/crowd-density/CrowdDensity-1.html (last access: 3 March 2021), 2019.
Teichtahl, A. J., Wluka, A. E., Strauss, B. J., Wang, Y., Berry, P., Davies-Tuck, M., and Cicuttini, F. M.: The associations between body and knee height measurements and knee joint structure in an asymptomatic cohort, BMC Musculoskel. Disord., 13, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2474-13-19, 2012.
The Sheffield Guide by DeeJayOne: Sheffield Floods: SWFC, Hillsborough Stadium and River Don // Sheffield Guide, online video clip, YouTube, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbkizUtNSqA (last access: 14 June 2021), 27 June 2007.
Toor, A., Happer, A., Overgaard, R., and Johal, R.: Real world walking speeds of young pedestrians, SAE Int., 110, 1106–1114, 2001.
UK population by ethnicity, Office for National Statistics [data set], available at: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity (last access: 3 March 2021), 2018.
Xia, J., Falconer, R. A., Wang, Y., and Xiao, X.: New criterion for the stability of a human body in floodwaters, J. Hydraul. Res., 52, 93–104, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2013.875073, 2014.
Zhu, X., Dai, Q., Han, D., Zhuo, L., Zhu, S., and Zhang, S.: Modelling the high-resolution dynamic exposure to flooding in a city region, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3353–3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3353-2019, 2019.
Zhuo, L. and Han, D.: Agent-based modelling and flood risk management: a compendious literature review, J. Hydrol., 591, 125600, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125600, 2020.
Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual countermeasure taken at the onset of a flooding event. The flood–pedestrian simulator simulates evacuation of people prior to and during a flood event. It provides information on the spatio-temporal responses of individuals, evacuation time, and possible safe destinations. This study demonstrates the simulator when considering more realistic human body and age characteristics and responses to floodwater.
Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual...