Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3175–3198, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3175–3198, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
20 Oct 2021
Research article
| 20 Oct 2021
Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study
Mohammad Shirvani and Georges Kesserwani
Related authors
No articles found.
Mohammad Kazem Sharifian, Georges Kesserwani, Alovya Ahmed Chowdhury, Jeffrey Neal, and Paul Bates
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-259, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new release for LISFLOOD-FP model for fast and efficient flood simulations. The model features a new non-uniform grid generator that uses multiwavelet analyses to sensibly coarsens the resolutions where the local topographic variations are smooth. Moreover, the model is parallelised on the graphical processing units (GPU) to further boost computational efficiency. The performance of the model is assessed for five real-world case studies, noting its potential applications.
James Shaw, Georges Kesserwani, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, and Mohammad Kazem Sharifian
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3577–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
LISFLOOD-FP has been extended with new shallow-water solvers – DG2 and FV1 – for modelling all types of slow- or fast-moving waves over any smooth or rough surface. Using GPU parallelisation, FV1 is faster than the simpler ACC solver on grids with millions of elements. The DG2 solver is notably effective on coarse grids where river channels are hard to capture, improving predicted river levels and flood water depths. This marks a new step towards real-world DG2 flood inundation modelling.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China
Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal
Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Invited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-production
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia
Surveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparability
Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities
Assessing agriculture’s vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland
Full-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forests
Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France
Review article: Potential of Nature-Based Solutions to Mitigate Hydro-Meteorological Risks in Sub-Saharan Africa
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China
Strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysis
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Rapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster management
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate change
Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk
Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Invited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding
Classifying offshore faults for hazard assessment: A new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
A geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities
Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
About the return period of a catastrophe
Invited perspectives: Current challenges to face knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk management – an insurer perspective
Brief communication: Radar images for monitoring informal urban settlements in vulnerable zones in Lima, Peru
A simulation–optimization framework for post-disaster allocation of mental health resources
Lessons learned about the importance of raising risk awareness in the Mediterranean region (north Morocco and west Sardinia, Italy)
Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps
Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta
Risk perception of local stakeholders on natural hazards: implications for theory and practice
Brief communication: Effective earthquake early warning systems: appropriate messaging and public awareness roles
Review article: Brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan area (Campania, southern Italy): a critical review
Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-744, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture’s vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowlegde supported with quantitative data: experts of the study regions, far apart, identified few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability 'scenarios'. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practictioners.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-604, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lately, nature-based solutions are becoming popular for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks such as floods, especially in Europe. However, its uptake in Sub-Saharan Africa is unclear. We therefore undertook this review and found that there is at least one reported nature-based solution used to mitigate flood, heatwave or drought risk in 71 % of urban areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Even so, these nature-based solutions are being implemented where risks are but not where risks are most severe.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-393, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to provide a practical solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure. The motivation behind this study is developing a methodology for fault hazard assessment in the marine env. We measured fault displacement rates (a proxy for surface rupture), and fault plane size (a proxy for potential magnitudes). Together, we classified faults by their size and rate of motion and prepared a map of each fault is color-coded by low-, moderate-, or high-risk levels.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
Mathias Raschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the combined return period to stochastically measure hazard and catastrophe events. This is used to estimate a risk curve by stochastic scaling of historical events and averaging corresponding risk parameters in combination with a vulnerability model. We apply the method to extratropical cyclones over Germany and estimate the risk for insured losses. The results are strongly influenced by assumptions about spatial dependence.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-6, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlights the need for an in-depth review of the current loss modelling framework, created at the early 1990s, to capture the increased complexity of each driver of the risk (exposure, hazard and vulnerability) as well as their interconnection.
Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Stephen Cunningham, Steven Schuldt, Christopher Chini, and Justin Delorit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3843–3862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The severity of disaster-induced mental health illness outcomes varies based on factors such as socioeconomic standing, age, and degree of exposure. This research proposes a resource allocation framework allowing decision-makers the capability to assess the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term mental health treatment and recovery. Ultimately, this framework can inform policy and operational decisions based on community needs and constrained resources post-disaster.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Mondino, Maria Rusca, Emanuele Del Giudice, Johanna Mård, Elena Ridolfi, Anna Scolobig, and Elena Raffetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3439–3447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
COVID-19 has affected humankind in an unprecedented way, and it has changed how people perceive multiple risks. In this paper, we compare public risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden in two different phases of the pandemic. We found that people are more worried about risks related to recently experienced events. This finding is in line with the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind.
Mia Wannewitz and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3285–3322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Focusing on Jakarta as a city with high flood risk and adaptation pressure, this study presents findings from a systematic literature review of adaptation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city’s flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft and hybrid adaptation options are less considered. This significantly influences flood risk management, including its effectiveness and sustainability.
Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint, Mihai Niculiță, Giulia Roder, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3251–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Local stakeholders' knowledge plays a deciding role in emergencies, supporting rescue officers in natural hazard events; coordinating; and assisting, both physically and psychologically, the affected populations. Their risk perception was assessed using a questionnaire for an area in north-eastern Romania. The results show low preparedness and reveal substantial distinctions among stakeholders and different risks based on their cognitive and behavioral roles in their communities.
Meng Zhang, Xue Qiao, Barnabas C. Seyler, Baofeng Di, Yuan Wang, and Ya Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3243–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) can help reduce losses, but their effectiveness depends on adequate public perception and understanding of EEWSs. This study examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. We found a big gap existed between the EEWS's message, the public's perception of it, and their response. The study highlights the importance of gauging EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency.
Stefano Carlino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3097–3112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports a brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan district, where the presence of three active volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island) exposes this highly urbanized area to hazard of potential eruptions. I am trying to obtain new food for thought for the scientific community working to mitigate the volcanic risk of this area, revisiting about 40 years of debates around volcanic risk in Naples.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3057–3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative wine-making system, we show that these interactions are important depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Cited articles
Abebe, Y. A., Ghorbani, A., Nikolic, I., Manojlovic, N., Gruhn, A., and Vojinovic, Z.: The role of household adaptation measures in reducing
vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5329–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5329-2020, 2020.
Aboelata, M. and Bowles, D. S.: LIFESim: A tool for estimating and reducing
life-loss resulting from dam and levee failures, in: Proceedings of the
Association of State Dam Safety Officials “Dam Safety 2008” Conference,
Indian Wells, California, 7–11 September 2008, 533–574, available at:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.155.2659 (last access: 15 January 2021), 2008.
Aerts, J. C.: Integrating agent-based approaches with flood risk models: a
review and perspective, Water Secur., 11, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100076, 2020.
Aerts, J. C., Botzen, W. J., Clarke, K. C., Cutter, S. L., Hall, J. W., Merz, B., Michel-Kerjan, E., Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., and Kunreuther, H.: Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 193–199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1, 2018.
Alonso Vicario, S., Mazzoleni, M., Bhamidipati, S., Gharesifard, M., Ridolfi, E., Pandolfo, C., and Alfonso, L.: Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 65, 2359–2375, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1810254, 2020.
An, L., Grimm, V., and Turner II, B. L.: Meeting grand challenges in agent-based models, J. Artif. Soc. Social Simul., 23, 13, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4012, 2020.
Arrighi, C., Oumeraci, H., and Castelli, F.: Hydrodynamics of pedestrians'
instability in floodwaters, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 515–531,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-515-2017, 2017.
Becker, J. S., Taylor, H. L., Doody, B. J., Wright, K. C., Gruntfest, E., and
Webber, D.: A review of people's behavior in and around floodwater, Weather
Clim. Soc., 7, 321–332, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00030.1, 2015.
Bernardini, G. and Quagliarini, E.: How to account for the human motion to
improve flood risk assessment in urban areas, Water, 12, 1316, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051316, 2020.
Bernardini, G., Postacchini, M., Quagliarini, E., Brocchini, M., Cianca, C.,
and D'Orazio, M.: A preliminary combined simulation tool for the risk assessment of pedestrians' flood-induced evacuation, Environ. Model. Softw., 96, 14–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.007, 2017.
Bernardini, G., Quagliarini, E., D'Orazio, M., and Brocchini, M.: Towards the
simulation of flood evacuation in urban scenarios: experiments to estimate human motion speed in floodwaters, Safety Sci., 123, 104563,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2019.104563, 2020.
Bernardini, G., Romano, G., Soldini, L., and Quagliarini, E.: How urban layout and pedestrian evacuation behaviours can influence flood risk assessment in riverine historic built environments, Sustain. Cities Soc., 70, 102876, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102876, 2021.
Bert, F. E., Rovere, S. L., Macal, C. M., North, M. J., and Podestá, G. P.: Lessons from a comprehensive validation of an agent based-model: the
experience of the pampas model of argentinean agricultural systems, Ecol. Model., 273, 284–298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.024, 2014.
Bohannon, R. W. and Andrews, A. W.: Normal walking speed: a descriptive meta-analysis, Physiotherapy, 97, 182–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physio.2010.12.004, 2011.
Bring on the sub: Sheffield Wednesday's pitch submerged by flood water: Daily Mail Online, available at:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-464478/Bring-sub-Sheffield-Wednesdays-pitch-submerged-flood-water.html
(last access: 14 June 2021), 26 June 2007.
Chanson, H., Brown, R., and McIntosh, D.: Human body stability in floodwaters: the 2011 flood in Brisbane CBD, in: Proceedings of the 5th IAHR
International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures, 25–27 June 2014, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2014.48, 2014.
Dawson, R. J., Peppe, R., and Wang, M.: An agent-based model for risk-based
flood incident management, Nat. Hazards, 59, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9745-4, 2011.
Dias, C., Abd Rahman, N., and Zaiter, A.: Evacuation under flooded conditions: Experimental investigation of the influence of water depth on
walking behaviors, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 58, 102192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102192, 2021.
Disabled World: Adult Body Mass Index (BMI) Calculator and Table, Disabled
World, available at: https://www.disabled-world.com/calculators-charts/bmi.php (last access: 10 November 2020), 2017.
Dobbs, R. J., Charlett, A., Bowes, S. G., O'neill, C. J. A., Weller, C., Hughes, J., and Dobbs, S. M.: Is this walk normal?, Age Ageing, 22, 27–30,
https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/22.1.27, 1993.
Environment Agency: Review of 2007 summer floods, Environment Agency,
Almondsbury, Bristol, UK, available at:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/292924/geho1107bnmi-e-e.pdf (last access: 22 January 2021), 2007.
Fielding, J., Burningham, K., Thrush, D., and Catt, R.: Public response to
flood warning: R & D Technical Report SC020116, DEFRA – Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK, available at
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/602d3a81d3bf7f721c13a3ba/Public_response_to_flood_warning_technical_report.pdf (last access: 21 May 2021), 2007.
Flood and coastal erosion risk management policy statement, Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-policy-statement
(last access: 3 March 2021), 14 July 2020.
Hamilton, K., Demant, D., Peden, A. E., and Hagger, M. S.: A systematic review of human behaviour in and around floodwater, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 47, 101561, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101561, 2020.
Hazra, A.: Using the confidence interval confidently, J. Thorac. Dis., 9,
4125–4130, https://doi.org/10.21037/jtd.2017.09.14, 2017.
Helbing, D. and Molnar, P.: Social force model for pedestrian dynamics, Phys. Rev. E, 51, 4282, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.51.4282, 1995.
Ishigaki, T., Kawanaka, R., Onishi, Y., Shimada, H., Toda, K., and Baba, Y.:
Assessment of safety on evacuating route during underground flooding, in:
Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering: Proceedings of 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS, Springer, Berlin,
Heidelberg, 141–146, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89465-0, 2009.
Jiang, Y., Chen, B., Li, X., and Ding, Z.: Dynamic navigation field in the
social force model for pedestrian evacuation, Appl. Math. Model., 80, 815–826, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2019.10.016, 2020.
Karmakharm, T., Richmond, P., and Romano, D. M.: Agent-based large scale
simulation of pedestrians with adaptive realistic navigation vector fields,
Theor. Pract. Comput. Graph., 10, 67–74, https://doi.org/10.2312/LocalChapterEvents/TPCG/TPCG10/067-074, 2010.
Kesserwani, G. and Shirvani, M.: The Flood-People simulator and its relevance to the research community, DAFNI [code], available at: https://dafni.ac.uk/project/flood-people-simulator/ (last access: 6 February 2021), 2021.
Kvočka, D., Falconer, R. A., and Bray, M.: Flood hazard assessment for
extreme flood events, Nat. Hazards, 84, 1569–1599, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2501-z, 2016.
Lange, D.: Share of people who have attended at least two live sports events
in the last year in England from May 2018 to May 2020 by age, available at:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/783771/live-sports-events-spectators-england-by-by-age/
(last access: 3 March 2021), 2020.
Lee, H. K., Hong, W. H., and Lee, Y. H.: Experimental study on the influence of water depth on the evacuation speed of elderly people in flood conditions,
Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 39, 101198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101198, 2019.
Li, M., Wei, Y., and Xu, Y.: A route navigation algorithm for pedestrian
simulation based on grid potential field, Adv. Mech. Eng., 11, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814019897831, 2019.
Lin, J., Zhu, R., Li, N., and Becerik-Gerber, B.: Do people follow the crowd
in building emergency evacuation? A cross-cultural immersive virtual reality-based study, Adv. Eng. Informa., 43, 101040, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2020.101040, 2020.
Liu, X. and Lim, S.: Integration of spatial analysis and an agent-based model into evacuation management for shelter assignment and routing, J. Spat. Sci., 61, 283–298, https://doi.org/10.1080/14498596.2016.1147393, 2016.
Lumbroso, D. and Davison, M.: Use of an agent-based model and Monte Carlo
analysis to estimate the effectiveness of emergency management interventions
to reduce loss of life during extreme floods, J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, S419–S433, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12230, 2018.
Lumbroso, D. and Di Mauro, M.: Recent developments in loss of life and
evacuation modelling for flood event management in the UK, WIT Trans. Ecol. Environ., 118, 263–272, https://doi.org/10.2495/FRIAR080251, 2008.
Lumbroso, D., Davison, M., Body, R., and Petkovšek, G.: Modelling the
Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it
could have been reduced, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 21–37,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-21-2021, 2021.
Lumbroso, D. M., Sakamoto, D., Johnstone, W. M., Tagg, A. F., and Lence, B. J.: Development of a life safety model to estimate the risk posed to people by dam failures and floods, Dams Reserv., 21, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.1680/dare.2011.21.1.31, 2011.
Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Imamura, F., Suppasri, A., Muhari, A., and Adriano, B.: Recent advances in agent-based tsunami evacuation simulations: case
studies in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan and Peru, Pure Appl. Geophys., 172, 3409–3424, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1105-y, 2015.
Matsuo, K., Natainia, L., and Yamada, F.: Flood and evacuation simulations
for urban flooding, in: 5th International Conference on Flood Management, 27–29 September 2011, Tokyo, Japan, 391–398, 2011.
McClymont, K., Morrison, D., Beevers, L., and Carmen, E.: Flood resilience: a
systematic review, J. Environ. Plan. Manage., 63, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2019.1641474, 2020.
Milanesi, L., Pilotti, M., and Ranzi, R.: A conceptual model of people's
vulnerability to floods, Water Resour. Res., 51, 182–197,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016172, 2015.
Minegishi, Y. and Takeichi, N.: Design guidelines for crowd evacuation in a
stadium for controlling evacuee accumulation and sequencing, Jpn. Architect. Rev., 1, 471–485, https://doi.org/10.1002/2475-8876.12042, 2018.
Moftakhari, H. R., AghaKouchak, A., Sanders, B. F., Allaire, M., and Matthew,
R. A.: What is nuisance flooding? Defining and monitoring an emerging
challenge, Water Resour. Res., 54, 4218–4227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022828, 2018.
Mohler, B. J., Thompson, W. B., Creem-Regehr, S. H., Pick, H. L., and Warren,
W. H.: Visual flow influences gait transition speed and preferred walking speed, Exp. Brain Res., 181, 221–228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00221-007-0917-0, 2007.
Musolino, G., Ahmadian, R., Xia, J., and Falconer, R. A.: Mapping the danger
to life in flash flood events adopting a mechanics based methodology and
planning evacuation routes, J. Flood Risk Manage., 13, e12627,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12627, 2020.
Netzel, L. M., Heldt, S., Engler, S., and Denecke, M.: The importance of public risk perception for the effective management of pluvial floods in urban areas: a case study from Germany, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, 2, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12688, 2021.
Polhill, J. G., Sutherland, L. A., and Gotts, N. M.: Using qualitative evidence to enhance an agent-based modelling system for studying land use change, J. Artif. Soc. Social Simul., 13, 10, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.1563, 2010.
Prentice, A. M.: Body mass index standards for children: are useful for
clinicians but not yet for epidemiologists, Br. Med. J. (Clin. Res. Ed.), 317, 1401–1402, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.317.7170.1401, 1998.
Priest, S. J.: Why understanding behaviour matters for flood risk management?, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, e12724, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12724, 2021.
Pugh, W.: Severe flooding near Hillsborough will not stop Sheffield Wednesday's game against Swansea being played tomorrow despite homes nearby
being evacuated, available at: https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/10303677 (last access: 3 March 2021), 2019.
Ramsbottom, D., Wade, S., Bain, V., Hassan, M., Penning-Rowsell, E., Wilson,
T., Fernandez, A., House, M., and Floyd, P.: Flood risks to people methodology: Phase 2. R & D Technical Report FD2321/TR2, DEFRA – Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK, available at
http://sciencesearch.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=FD2321_3436_TRP.pdf (last access: 15 December 2020), 2006.
Rufat, S., Fekete, A., Armaş, I., Hartmann, T., Kuhlicke, C., Prior, T.,
Thaler, T., and Wisner, B.: Swimming alone? Why linking flood risk perception
and behavior requires more than “it's the individual, stupid”, WIREs Water, 7, e1462, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1462, 2020.
Shirvani, M.: Flood-pedestrian simulator video demos, TIB AV-Portal [video],
https://doi.org/10.5446/51547, 2021.
Shirvani, M. and Kesserwani, G.: Flood-pedestrian simulator, Zenodo [code],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4564288, 2021a.
Shirvani, M. and Kesserwani, G.: Outputs of the flood-pedestrian simulator
applied to the flooded shopping centre and Hillsborough Stadium test cases,
Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4576906, 2021b.
Shirvani, M., Kesserwani, G., and Richmond, P.: Agent-based simulator of dynamic flood-people interactions, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, e12695,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12695, 2021.
Shirvani, M., Kesserwani, G., and Richmond, P.: Agent-based modelling of
pedestrian responses during flood emergency: mobility behavioural rules and
implications for flood risk analysis, J. Hydroinform., 22, 1078–1092, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2020.031, 2020.
Statista Research Department: Europe: distribution of football fans in 2016,
by country and gender, available at:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/658959/europe-football-fans-by-country-and-gender/
(last access: 3 March 2021), 2016.
Still, G. K.: Crowd Safety and Crowd Risk Analysis, Crowd Risk Analysis Ltd,
available at:
https://www.gkstill.com/Support/crowd-density/CrowdDensity-1.html (last
access: 3 March 2021), 2019.
Teichtahl, A. J., Wluka, A. E., Strauss, B. J., Wang, Y., Berry, P., Davies-Tuck, M., and Cicuttini, F. M.: The associations between body and knee
height measurements and knee joint structure in an asymptomatic cohort, BMC
Musculoskel. Disord., 13, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2474-13-19, 2012.
The Sheffield Guide by DeeJayOne: Sheffield Floods: SWFC, Hillsborough
Stadium and River Don // Sheffield Guide, online video clip, YouTube, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbkizUtNSqA (last access: 14 June 2021), 27 June 2007.
Toor, A., Happer, A., Overgaard, R., and Johal, R.: Real world walking speeds
of young pedestrians, SAE Int., 110, 1106–1114, 2001.
UK population by ethnicity, Office for National Statistics [data set],
available at:
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity
(last access: 3 March 2021), 2018.
Xia, J., Falconer, R. A., Wang, Y., and Xiao, X.: New criterion for the
stability of a human body in floodwaters, J. Hydraul. Res., 52, 93–104, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2013.875073, 2014.
Zhu, X., Dai, Q., Han, D., Zhuo, L., Zhu, S., and Zhang, S.: Modelling the
high-resolution dynamic exposure to flooding in a city region, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 23, 3353–3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3353-2019, 2019.
Zhuo, L. and Han, D.: Agent-based modelling and flood risk management: a
compendious literature review, J. Hydrol., 591, 125600,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125600, 2020.
Short summary
Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual countermeasure taken at the onset of a flooding event. The flood–pedestrian simulator simulates evacuation of people prior to and during a flood event. It provides information on the spatio-temporal responses of individuals, evacuation time, and possible safe destinations. This study demonstrates the simulator when considering more realistic human body and age characteristics and responses to floodwater.
Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint