Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 08 Sep 2021
| 08 Sep 2021
Timely prediction potential of landslide early warning systems with multispectral remote sensing: a conceptual approach tested in the Sattelkar, Austria
Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Markus Keuschnig
GEORESEARCH, Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Puch, Austria
Ingo Hartmeyer
GEORESEARCH, Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Puch, Austria
Robert Delleske
GEORESEARCH, Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Puch, Austria
Michael Krautblatter
Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
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Riccardo Scandroglio, Samuel Weber, Jonas K. Limbrock, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 20, 4787–4809, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4787-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4787-2026, 2026
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This study monitors changes in frozen rock on Mount Zugspitze over 17 years using monthly electrical resistivity measurements. By linking this data to rock temperature and applying advanced analysis, it reveals a 40 % loss of permafrost in the past decade. Thawing accelerates during summer, highlighting increasing risks of rock instability as temperatures rise.
Felix Pfluger, Samuel Weber, Natalie Barbosa, Florentin Hofmeister, Johannes Leinauer, Peter Wegmann, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 14, 601–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-14-601-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-14-601-2026, 2026
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The 2024 Platteikogel rock slope failure (Tyrol, Austria) highlights how cryospheric changes promote slope failure. We demonstrate how the system feedback of ice apron loss, permafrost warming, increase in rockfall activity, and changes in groundwater conditions accelerate mechanical destabilization, and as a consequence likely peaked in the observed failure. Today, rapidly vanishing ice aprons potentially mark source zones for future rock slides.
Philipp Daniel Gewalt, Thomas C. Wagner, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1699, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Surface Dynamics (ESurf).
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Sediments move through mountain landscapes during heavy rainfall. Climate change will alter the occurrence of heavy rainfall, potentially changing sediment transport. To understand how, we investigate how mountain sediment transport responded to past climate changes. We show that sediments in small, steep catchments are moved by less extreme precipitation compared to larger, gentler catchments. This means that catchment form and area control future sediment transport in a changing climate.
Katharina Wetterauer, Sebastian Müller, Michael Krautblatter, Shiva P. Pudasaini, and Ivo Baselt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1235, 2026
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Contrasting mobility responses of erosive debris flows are poorly understood. Here, the role of bed inertia in debris-flow evolution and runout is experimentally assessed using distinct bed-density contrasts. Erosion is higher and runout longer over low-density beds, whereas equal- and high-density beds congruently show shallower erosion and shorter runout. The results indicate that solid density alone cannot explain mobility changes and that particle shape and internal friction also contribute.
Maike Offer, Ingo Hartmeyer, Samuel Weber, Markus Keuschnig, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6091, 2026
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This study presents a year-round automated electrical resistivity tomography monitoring of a steep permafrost rockwall combined with borehole temperature, anchor load and piezometer observations. The joint analysis revealed seasonal phases with enhanced mechanical forcing of rockwalls related to high hydrostatic and cryostatic pressures, which are of particular interest for understanding preconditioning of rock instabilities.
Benjamin Jacobs, Mohamed Ismael, Mostafa Ezzy, Markus Keuschnig, Alexander Mendler, Johanna Kieser, Michael Krautblatter, Christian U. Grosse, and Hany Helal
Earth Surf. Dynam., 14, 55–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-14-55-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-14-55-2026, 2026
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The Mortuary Temple of Hatshepsut is one of Egypt's key heritage sites but is potentially threatened by rockfalls from a 100 m high limestone cliff. We transferred established monitoring techniques from alpine environments to this UNESCO World Heritage Site and evaluated their performance in a historically sensitive desert environment. Our study presents the first evidence-based event and impact analysis of rockfalls at the Temple of Hatshepsut, providing vital data for future risk assessment.
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Michael Dietze, Alexander Bast, Robert Kenner, Marcia Phillips, Johannes Leinauer, Simon Mühlbauer, Felix Pfluger, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 1157–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1157-2025, 2025
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On 13 June 2023, a freestanding rock pillar on the Matterhorn collapsed after years of weakening. Our study examines this progressive destabilization by analyzing field data and integrating lab experiments into a hydro-mechanical model. We highlight the critical role of water infiltration into frozen rock, intensified by climate warming, as a widespread driver of the rising frequency of rockfalls in high mountain permafrost regions.
Wolfgang Aumer, Ingo Hartmeyer, Carolyn-Monika Görres, Daniel Uteau, Maike Offer, and Stephan Peth
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 473–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-473-2025, 2025
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The summertime thaw depth of permanently frozen ground (active layer thickness, ALT) is of critical importance for natural hazard management (e.g., rock avalanches) and construction (foundation stability) in mountain permafrost regions. We report the first analytical heat transport model for simulating ALT based on near-surface temperature in permafrost rock walls. Our results show that the ALT will likely increase by more than 50 % by 2050 at 3000 m a.s.l. in the European Alps.
Riccardo Scandroglio, Samuel Weber, Till Rehm, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 295–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-295-2025, 2025
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Despite the critical role of water in alpine regions, its presence in bedrock is frequently neglected. This research examines the dynamics of water in fractures using 1 decade of measurements from a tunnel 50 m underground. We provide new insights into alpine groundwater dynamics, revealing that up to 800 L d-1 can flow in one fracture during extreme events. These quantities can saturate the fractures, enhance hydraulic conductivity, and generate pressures that destabilize slopes.
Maike Offer, Samuel Weber, Michael Krautblatter, Ingo Hartmeyer, and Markus Keuschnig
The Cryosphere, 19, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-485-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-485-2025, 2025
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We present a unique long-term dataset of measurements of borehole temperature, repeated electrical resistivity tomography, and piezometric pressure to investigate the complex seasonal water flow in permafrost rockwalls. Our joint analysis shows that permafrost rocks are subjected to enhanced pressurised water flow during the thaw period, resulting in push-like warming events and long-lasting rock temperature regime changes.
Felix Pfluger, Samuel Weber, Joseph Steinhauser, Christian Zangerl, Christine Fey, Johannes Fürst, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 41–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-41-2025, 2025
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Our study explores permafrost–glacier interactions with a focus on their implications for preparing or triggering high-volume rock slope failures. Using the Bliggspitze rock slide as a case study, we demonstrate a new type of rock slope failure mechanism triggered by the uplift of the cold–warm dividing line in polythermal alpine glaciers, a widespread and currently under-explored phenomenon in alpine environments worldwide.
Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1027–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, 2024
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Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Ingo Hartmeyer and Jan-Christoph Otto
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 5, 3–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-5-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-5-3-2024, 2024
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
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Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Sibylle Knapp, Michael Schwenk, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1185–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, 2022
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The Flims area in the Swiss Alps has fascinated the researchers with its complex geological history ever since. Especially the order of events related to the Tamins and Flims rockslides has long been debated. This paper presents novel results based on up to 160 m deep geophysical profiles, which show onlaps of the Bonaduz Formation onto the Tamins deposits (Ils Aults) and thus indicate that the Tamins rockslide occurred first. The consecutive evolution of this landscape is shown in four phases.
Shiva P. Pudasaini and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 165–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, 2022
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We present the first physics-based general landslide velocity model incorporating internal deformation and external forces. Voellmy–inviscid Burgers' equations are specifications of the novel advective–dissipative system. Unified analytical solutions constitute a new foundation of landslide velocity, providing key information to instantly estimate impact forces and describe breaking waves and folding, revealing that landslide dynamics are architectured by advection and reigned by forcing.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Carolin Kiefer, Patrick Oswald, Jasper Moernaut, Stefano Claudio Fabbri, Christoph Mayr, Michael Strasser, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1481–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, 2021
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This study provides amphibious investigations of debris flow fans (DFFs). We characterize active DFFs, combining laser scan and sonar surveys at Plansee. We discover a 4000-year debris flow record in sediment cores, providing evidence for a 7-fold debris flow frequency increase in the 20th and 21st centuries, coincident with 2-fold enhanced rainstorm activity in the northern European Alps. Our results indicate climate change as being the main factor controlling debris flow activity.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Saskia Eppinger, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, 2021
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The mechanical response of permafrost degradation on high-mountain rock slope stability has not been calculated in a numerical model yet. We present the first approach for a model with thermal and mechanical input data derived from laboratory and field work, and existing concepts. This is applied to a test site at the Zugspitze, Germany. A numerical sensitivity analysis provides the first critical stability thresholds related to the rock temperature, slope angle and fracture network orientation.
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Short summary
Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its applicability to time-critical early warning is rarely studied. We present a concept to operationalise its use for landslide early warning, aiming to extend lead time. We tested PlanetScope and unmanned aerial system images on a complex mass movement and compared processing times to historic benchmarks. Acquired data are within the forecasting window, indicating the feasibility for landslide early warning.
Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its...
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