Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1909-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1909-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 18 Jun 2021
| 18 Jun 2021
Global ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 1: Observations
Dieter R. Poelman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Austrian Lightning Detection and Information System (ALDIS), Vienna, Austria
Stephane Pedeboy
Météorage, Pau, France
Dustin Hill
Scientific Lightning Solutions LLC (SLS), Titusville, Florida, USA
Marcelo Saba
National Institute for Space Research, INPE, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Hugh Hunt
The Johannesburg Lightning Research Laboratory, School of Electrical and Information Engineering, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
Lukas Schwalt
Institute of High Voltage Engineering and System Performance, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria
Christian Vergeiner
Institute of High Voltage Engineering and System Performance, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria
Carlos T. Mata
Scientific Lightning Solutions LLC (SLS), Titusville, Florida, USA
Carina Schumann
The Johannesburg Lightning Research Laboratory, School of Electrical and Information Engineering, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
Tom Warner
ZT Research, Rapid City, South Dakota, USA
Related authors
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-174, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jump (LJ) and lightning dive (LD) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature similar characteristics as severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts, and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail or tornadoes.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveils distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. Daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Leandro Z. S. Campos, Michihiro Matsui, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, and Hugh Hunt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1921–1933, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The lightning flash density is a key input parameter for assessing the risk of occurrence of a lightning strike. Flashes tend to have more than one ground termination point on average; therefore the use of ground strike point densities is more appropriate. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of three distinct ground strike point algorithms to correctly determine the observed ground-truth strike points.
Dieter R. Poelman and Wolfgang Schulz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2965–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2965-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2965-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this work is to quantify the similarities and contrasts between the lightning observations from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the International Space Station (ISS) and the ground-based European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID) network. This work is timely, given that the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG), which has a lightning imager (LI) on board, is going to be launched in 2 years.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Rudolf Kaltenboeck, and Laurent Delobbe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4561–4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4561-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4561-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning data as observed by the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection network EUCLID are used in combination with radar data to retrieve the temporal and spatial behavior of lightning outliers, i.e. discharges located in a wrong place, over a 5-year period from 2011 to 2016 in Belgium and Austria.
Wolfgang Schulz, Gerhard Diendorfer, Stéphane Pedeboy, and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 595–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-595-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-595-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present a performance analysis of the European lightning location system EUCLID for cloud-to-ground flashes/strokes in terms of location accuracy, detection efficiency and peak current estimation. The performance analysis is based on ground truth data from direct lightning current measurements at the Gaisberg Tower and data from E-field and video recordings.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Gerhard Diendorfer, and Marina Bernardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 607–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-607-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-607-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud-to-ground lightning data from the EUCLID network over the period 2006–2014 are explored. Mean flash densities vary over the European continent, with the highest density found at the intersection of the borders of Austria, Italy and Slovenia. The majority of lightning activity takes place between May and September, while the diurnal cycle peaks around 15:00 UTC. In addition, it is found that flashes with higher peak currents occur in greater proportion over sea than over land.
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-174, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jump (LJ) and lightning dive (LD) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature similar characteristics as severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts, and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail or tornadoes.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveils distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. Daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Jose V. Moris, Pedro Álvarez-Álvarez, Marco Conedera, Annalie Dorph, Thomas D. Hessilt, Hugh G. P. Hunt, Renata Libonati, Lucas S. Menezes, Mortimer M. Müller, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Gianni B. Pezzatti, Nicolau Pineda, Rebecca C. Scholten, Sander Veraverbeke, B. Mike Wotton, and Davide Ascoli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1151–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes a database on holdover times of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIWs). Holdover time is defined as the time between lightning-induced fire ignition and fire detection. The database contains 42 datasets built with data on more than 152 375 LIWs from 13 countries in five continents from 1921 to 2020. This database is the first freely-available, harmonized and ready-to-use global source of holdover time data, which may be used to investigate LIWs and model the holdover phenomenon.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Leandro Z. S. Campos, Michihiro Matsui, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, and Hugh Hunt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1921–1933, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The lightning flash density is a key input parameter for assessing the risk of occurrence of a lightning strike. Flashes tend to have more than one ground termination point on average; therefore the use of ground strike point densities is more appropriate. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of three distinct ground strike point algorithms to correctly determine the observed ground-truth strike points.
Dieter R. Poelman and Wolfgang Schulz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2965–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2965-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2965-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this work is to quantify the similarities and contrasts between the lightning observations from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the International Space Station (ISS) and the ground-based European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID) network. This work is timely, given that the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG), which has a lightning imager (LI) on board, is going to be launched in 2 years.
Felix Erdmann, Eric Defer, Olivier Caumont, Richard J. Blakeslee, Stéphane Pédeboy, and Sylvain Coquillat
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 853–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares lightning observations from an optical sensor onboard the International Space Station to two ground-based networks using different radio frequencies. The location and timing of coincident flashes agree well for the three instruments. Differences exist for the detected number of flashes and the characteristics. Small flashes in particular are not always detected by all three instruments. About half of the flashes at altitudes below 10 km are not seen by the satellite sensor.
Jonas Sousasantos, José Humberto Andrade Sobral, Esfhan Alam Kherani, Marcelo Magalhães Fares Saba, and Diovane Rodolfo de Campos
Ann. Geophys., 36, 349–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-349-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-349-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the tropospheric convection and the ionospheric phenomenology have been investigated in recent decades. In this work a relation between the lightning strike activity and the characteristics of the equatorial spread-F events is analyzed over the Brazilian region, and the results seem to support the hypothesis of some indirect interrelationship between both distinct phenomena.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Rudolf Kaltenboeck, and Laurent Delobbe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4561–4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4561-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4561-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning data as observed by the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection network EUCLID are used in combination with radar data to retrieve the temporal and spatial behavior of lightning outliers, i.e. discharges located in a wrong place, over a 5-year period from 2011 to 2016 in Belgium and Austria.
Thorsten Simon, Nikolaus Umlauf, Achim Zeileis, Georg J. Mayr, Wolfgang Schulz, and Gerhard Diendorfer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 305–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-305-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-305-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a newly developed statistical method to assess the risk of thunderstorms in complex terrain. Observations of lightning serve as an indicator for thunderstorms. The application of the method is illustrated for Carinthia which is located in Austria, Europe.
Wolfgang Schulz, Gerhard Diendorfer, Stéphane Pedeboy, and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 595–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-595-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-595-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present a performance analysis of the European lightning location system EUCLID for cloud-to-ground flashes/strokes in terms of location accuracy, detection efficiency and peak current estimation. The performance analysis is based on ground truth data from direct lightning current measurements at the Gaisberg Tower and data from E-field and video recordings.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Gerhard Diendorfer, and Marina Bernardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 607–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-607-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-607-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud-to-ground lightning data from the EUCLID network over the period 2006–2014 are explored. Mean flash densities vary over the European continent, with the highest density found at the intersection of the borders of Austria, Italy and Slovenia. The majority of lightning activity takes place between May and September, while the diurnal cycle peaks around 15:00 UTC. In addition, it is found that flashes with higher peak currents occur in greater proportion over sea than over land.
E. Defer, J.-P. Pinty, S. Coquillat, J.-M. Martin, S. Prieur, S. Soula, E. Richard, W. Rison, P. Krehbiel, R. Thomas, D. Rodeheffer, C. Vergeiner, F. Malaterre, S. Pedeboy, W. Schulz, T. Farges, L.-J. Gallin, P. Ortéga, J.-F. Ribaud, G. Anderson, H.-D. Betz, B. Meneux, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, S. Roos, V. Ducrocq, O. Roussot, L. Labatut, and G. Molinié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 649–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the scientific objectives and the observational/modeling strategy of the atmospheric electricity PEACH project of the HyMeX program focusing on the lightning activity and the electrical state of Mediterranean thunderstorms. Examples of concurrent observations from radio frequency to acoustic for regular and atypical lightning flashes and for storms are discussed, showing the unique and comprehensive description of lightning flashes recorded during a dedicated field campaign.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: The Czech Republic, 1919–2022
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Assessment of windstorm-damage relations in the complex terrain of Norway
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
FOREWARNS: Development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Catchment scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to demonstrate long-term fluctuations in the number, gender and age of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters and falls on ice or snow in relation to selected meteorological, historical and socioeconomic factors, strongly influencing changes in numbers and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of human lives.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years, but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage/no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 has been truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. Satellite All-Sky Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over Northern England to show that this confidence is justified, and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression is used to determine the drought severity and time zones where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations). Moreover, this study also examined the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Cited articles
Ballarotti, M. G., Medeiros, C., Saba, M. M. F., Schulz, W., and Pinto Jr., O.: Frequency distributions of some parameters of negative downward lightning flashes based on accurate-stroke-count studies, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D06112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017135, 2012.
Biagi, C. J., Cummins, K. L., Kehoe, K. E., and Krider, E. P.: National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) performance in southern Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma in 2003–2004, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D05208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007341, 2007.
Bouquegneau, C.: The need for an international standard on Lightning Location Systems, in: 23rd International Lightning Detection Conference, 18–19 March 2014, Tucson, Arizona, USA, 2014.
Bürgesser, R. E.: Assessment of the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) detection efficiency by comparison to the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2809–2817, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3129, 2017.
Cooray, V. and Jayaratne, K. P. S. C.: Characteristics of lightning flashes observed in Sri Lanka in the tropics, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 21051–21056, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD01519, 1994.
Cooray, V. and Pérez, H.: Some features of lightning flashes observed in Sweden, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10683–10688, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD02366, 1994.
Coquillat, S., Defer, E., de Guibert, P., Lambert, D., Pinty, J.-P., Pont, V., Prieur, S., Thomas, R. J., Krehbiel, P. R., and Rison, W.: SAETTA: high-resolution 3-D mapping of the total lightning activity in the Mediterranean Basin over Corsica, with a focus on a mesoscale convective system event, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5765–5790, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5765-2019, 2019.
Evert, R. C. and Gijben, M.: Official South African Lightning Ground Flash Density Map 2006 to 2017 – Earthing Africa Inaugural Symposium and Exhibition, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2017.
Ferro, M. A., Saba, M. M. F., and Pinto Jr., O.: Time intervals between negative lightning strokes and the creation of new ground terminations, Atmos. Res., 116, 130–133, 2012.
Fleenor, S. A., Biagi, C. J., Cummins, K. L., Krider, E. P., and Shao, X.: Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning in warm-season thunderstorms in the Central Great Plains, Atmos. Res., 91, 333–352, 2009.
Gaffard, C., Nash, J., Atkinson, N., Bennett, A., Callaghan, G., Hibbett, E., Taylor, P., Turp, M., and Schulz, W.: Observing lightning around the globe from the surface, in: 20th International Lightning Detection Conference, Tucson, Arizona, USA, 21–23, 2008.
Goodman, S. J., Blakeslee, R. J., Koshak, W. J., Mach, D., Bailey J., Buechler, D., Carey, L., Schultz, C., Bateman, M., McCaul, E., and Stano, G.: The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), Atmos. Res., 125–126, 34–49, 2013.
Grandell, J., Finke, U., and Stuhlmann, R.: The EUMETSAT meteosat third generation lightning imager (MTG-LI): Applications and product processing, in: Proceedings of the 9th EMS Annual Meeting, 28 September–2 October 2009, Toulouse, France, 2009.
Hill, J. D., Mata, C. T., Nag, A., and Roeder, W. P.: Evaluation of the performance characteristics of MERLIN and NLDN based on two years of ground-truth data from Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force station, Florida, in: 24th International Lightning Detection Conference, San Diego, California, USA, 2016.
International Standard: IEC 62858, Edition 2, lightning density based on lightning location systems (LLS) – General principles, International Electrotechnical Commission, ISBN 978-2-8322-7457-6, 2019.
Kitagawa, N., Brook, M., and Workman, E. J.: Continuing currents in cloud-to-ground lightning discharges, J. Geophys. Res., 67, 637–647, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ067i002p00637, 1962.
Krider, E. P., Noggle, R. C., and Uman, M. A.: A gated wide-band magnetic direction finder for lightning return strokes, J. Appl. Meteorol., 15, 301–306, 1976.
Lewis, E. A., Harvey, R. B., and Rasmussen, J. E.: Hyperbolic direction finding with sferics of transatlantic origin, J. Geophys. Res., 65, 1879–1905, 1960.
Murphy, M. J., Cramer, J. A., and Said, R. K.: Recent History of Upgrades to the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 38, 573–585, 2021.
Naccarato, K. P. and Pinto Jr., O.: Improvements in the detection efficiency model for the Brazilian lightning detection network (Brasil – DAT), Atmos. Res., 91, 546–563, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.06.019, 2009.
Poelman, D. R., Schulz, W., Pedeboy, S., Campos, L. Z. S., Matsui, M., Hill, D., Saba, M., and Hunt, H.: Global ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 2: Algorithm validation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1921–1933, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, 2021.
Rakov, V. A. and Uman, M. A.: Some properties of negative cloud- to-ground lightning, paper presented at 20th International Conference on Lightning Protection, Swiss Electrotechn. Assoc., Interlaken, Switzerland, 1990.
Rakov, V. A., Uman, M. A., and Thottappillil, R.: Review of lightning properties from electric field and TV observations, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10745–10750, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD01205, 1994.
Saba, M. M. F., Ballarotti, M. G., Pinto Jr., O.: Negative cloud-to-ground lightning properties from high-speed video observations, J. Geophys. Res. 111, D03101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006415, 2006.
Saba, M. M. F., Schumann, C., Warner, T. A., Ferro, M. A. S., de Paiva, A. R., Helsdon Jr., J., and Orville, R. E.: Upward lightning flashes characteristics from high-speed videos, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 8493–8505, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025137, 2016.
Said, R. K., Inan, U. S., and Cummins, K. L.: Long-range lightning geolocation using a VLF radio atmospheric waveform bank, J. Geophys.Res., 115, D23108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013863, 2010.
Saraiva, A. C. V., Saba, M. M. F., Pinto, O., Cummins, K. L., Krider, E. P., and Campos, L. Z. S.: A comparative study of negative cloud-to-ground lightning characteristics in São Paulo (Brazil) and Arizona (United States) based on high-speed video observations, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D11102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012604, 2010.
Schulz, W. and Saba, M. M. F.: First results of correlated lightning video images and electric field measurements in Austria, in: SIPDA, 9–13 November 2009, Curitiba, Brazil, 2009.
Schulz, W., Lackenbauer, B., Pichler, H., and Diendorfer, G.: LLS data and correlated continuous E-field measurements, in: SIPDA, 21–25 November 2009, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2005.
Schulz, W., Diendorfer, G., Pedeboy, S., and Poelman, D. R.: The European lightning location system EUCLID – Part 1: Performance analysis and validation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 595–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-595-2016, 2016.
Schumann, C., Hunt, H. G. P., Tasman, J., Fensham, H., Nixon, K. J., Warner, T. A., and Saba, M. M. F.: High-speed Video Observation of Lightning Flashes Over Johannesburg, in: South Africa 2017–2018 International Conference on Lightning Protection, 2–7 September 2018, Rzeszow, Poland, 2018.
Schwalt, L.: Lightning Phenomena in the Alpine Region of Austria, PhD thesis, Graz University of Technology, 147 pp., 2019.
Schwalt, L., Pack, S., and Schulz, W.: Ground truth Data of Atmospheric Discharges in Correlation with LLS Detections, Elect. Pow. Syst. Res., 180, 106065, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2019.106065, 2020.
Schwalt, L., Pack, S., Schulz, W., and Pistotnik, G.: Percentage of single-stroke flashes related to different thunderstorm types, Elect. Power Syst. Res., 194, 107109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2021.107109, 2021.
Sparrow, J. G. and Ney, E. P.: Lightning observations by satellite, Nature, 232, 514–540, 1971.
Stall, C. A., Cummins, K. L., Krider, E. P., and Cramer, J. A.: Detecting multiple ground contacts in cloud-to-ground lightning flashes, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 26, 2392–2402, 2009.
Turman, B. N.: Analysis of lightning data from the DMSP satellite, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 83, 5019–5024, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC083iC10p05019, 1978.
Valine, W. and Krider, E. P.: Statistics and characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning with multiple ground contacts, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4441, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001360, 2002.
Vergeiner, C., Pack, S., Schulz, W., and Diendorfer, G.: Negative cloud-to-ground lightning in the alpine region: a new approach, in: CIGRE International Colloquium, 28–30 March 2016, Curitiba, Brazil, 2016.
Vorpahl, J. A., Sparrow, J. G., and Ney, E. P.: Satellite observations of lightning, Science, 169, 860–862, 1970.
Yang, J., Zhang, Z., Wei, C., Lu, F., and Guo, Q.: Introducing the new generation of Chinese geostationary weather satellites, Fengyun-4, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1637–1658, 2017.
Zhu, Y., Rakov, V. A., Tran, M. D., Stock, M. G., Heckman, S., Liu, C., Sloop, C. D., Jordan, D. M., Uman, M. A., Caicedo, J. A., Kotovsky, D. A., Wilkes, R. A., Carvalho, F. L., Ngin, T., Gamerota, W. R., Pilkey, J. T., and Hare, B. M.: Evaluation of ENTLN performance characteristics based on the ground truth natural and rocket-triggered lightning data acquired in Florida, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 9858–9866, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027270, 2017.
Short summary
Information about lightning properties is important in order to advance the current understanding of lightning, whereby the characteristics of ground strike points are in particular helpful to improving the risk estimation for lightning protection. High-speed video recordings of 1174 negative downward lightning flashes are taken in different regions around the world and analyzed in terms of flash multiplicity, duration, interstroke intervals and ground strike point properties.
Information about lightning properties is important in order to advance the current...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint